brehobit said:
I actually think this announcement was backing away from the original way of keeping the number of items down.
I strongly suspect they were looking at providing penalties for using magic items. So like the weapons of legacy you'd have to give up something maintaining a fairly neutral power-level.
This obviously has lots of problems. Loot isn't so great if it's just a break-even proposition, and getting the balance right would be hard. But otherwise the "need" items issue continues.
Here's where I think they are going:
#1 More strictly limited number of slots than 3e. (say 5?) and very few unslotted items.
#2 Fewer items that provide raw bonuses. Instead swift/immediate usage will be common. This in effect limits stacking of items while providing options.
Here's what I think they should add:
#3a Some minor, and reasonable penalty for using a certain class of item. So for example, using a magic sword might involve it "taking over" some of your reactions and you lose a bit of judgement. So you get the ability to use action points to reroll attack checks only if you aren't attacking with a magic weapon. Using a magic helmet might reduce an armor bonus by 1 (min 4) as it doesn't provide the protection of a real helmet in heavy armor. Certain items (rings, amulets, etc.) might make you an easier target for certain spells (say -1 to will saves) or perhaps have a chance of exploding if you get criticalled by a fire attack. etc. etc. Generally more powerful items have somewhat worse problems (explode for more damage, -2 to will saves, helm might break if AC difference mattered, etc.)
My #3a is similar to the weapons of legacy rules, but aren't as nasty. And as long as the slots are kept down AND most items of a given slot tend to have the same disadvantage, it won't be that hard to keep track of. And certain characters will tend not to use certain kinds of items.
#3b (another option) Using most magic items requires attunement. So you spend EXP and time to be able to use an item at all. Further, the item soaks a % of your EXP earned. Some items just burn the EXP, others get more powerful. So a +1 sword might require 50EXP and an hour to attune to, while a +5 sword might require 1000 EXP, 2 days, and it might take 5% of all EXP. This makes minor magic items fairly worthless (which they mostly are now), one-shot items (which generally won't require this) much more popular, and again keeps the number of items down. But the mechanics suck...
Ah well..
I think your predictions are mostly off. Paying XP for attuning magic items for example is pretty similar to paying xp for creating a magic item. If they don't want the latter, they won't do the former.
Magic Items granting bonuses and penalties to compensate doesn't sound like something they would use as a standard. Espeically with the "per encounter" balance focus, they will probably want to avoid the possibility to use an item effectively in one encounter and balancing this with long-term penalties.
I think balance will be more focused on "opportunity" cost. You can use power X, but you need to spend one of your precious actions (and everything other than a free action is precious), which you could have used for ability Y.
Magic items slots worked on the same premise (yes, you can wear a Cloak of Charisma, but that means no Cloak of Resistance), but it fall flat because to many standard items were required for an effective character. This meant any interesting item useful only in less common situations would be sold at the first opportunity.
(in other words

The "Big Six" were a requirement for every character, and this meant that magic items that really added something interesting to the game would be ignored, because there was no way you could wear/use them without giving something critically important.
The "Big Six" might be gone entirely, or considerably changed.
Gauntlets of Ogre Power might still grant a +2 bonus to Strength, but it would only boost your up Strength to 18. A decent fighter will no longer need the item, but it might be useful for a Rogue or Cleric. This means the Fighter could wear "Gauntlets of Rust" or "Gloves of Arrow Snaring" instead.
I don't know how you this mechanic could be translated for the other items (bonus to natural armor, deflection, armor, shield, saving throw), but I guess you might come up with things.