It's been... well, we're closing on 40 years now, and HOW MANY editions, half-editions, and sweeping supplemental alterations?
Fact
#1 : not everyone wants to play D&D the same way.
Fact
#2 : different game versions don't all work the same for every gamer given fact
#1 .
Really it isn't a question of branching D&D
intentionally. The players are
already doing that. We're playing 4E, 3E/3.5E, Pathfinder/3E to be sure, but there are a lot of other official and unofficial takes on D&D also being played - 2E AD&D, 1E AD&D, OD&D, BECMI, OSRIC, Labyrinth Lord, Swords & Wizardry, E6... How many are playing which one? Gosh, if you knew that you'd certainly be making money in the RPG industry wouldn't you?
4E is NOT going to give me the same gaming experience as E6. OSRIC is not the same game experience as Pathfinder - Pathfinder isn't even the same game experience as the 3.5 rules upon which it is based. No new version of D&D will substantively change that (at least -I- have yet to be convinced of it) but will only ADD to the
already-diversified rules for D&D.
I've said before that I've sort of put my Hat of Prognostication on a shelf. Too hard to see where things are headed. I guess what I DO see, however, is that one edition will never again rule them all. Also, I think looking at successful RPG kickstarters is an intriguing indicator of where gamer interests actually lie. But I'll leave others to sift through that and draw
conclusions.