Wulf Ratbane said:
From what we've seen so far, 4e is the way to go if you actually want to help bring new players into the game.
Er, no, we've seen no such thing. "This is different, therefore it will attract new players" is no more a given today than it was when the same logic was applied to Traveller: The New Era. That 4e as it is being developed will attract new players more than a version using the new 4e rules engine but the old flavor elements is pure speculation. If Wizards had test-driven the new D&D flavor in a new campaign world, and it had been wildly successful, with an uptake speed surpassing Eberron's,
that would be evidence that 4e's story is the way to go if you want to bring new players into the game. If a massive campaign of external playtesting had lot of come back with "go with the tiefling, drop the gnome", well, that would be evidence. But such evidence doesn't exist.
Heck, if they said that their market research indicated more people were playing warlocks than bards and tieflings than gnomes,
that would be evidence in their favor. But apparently the decision was driven entirely because the tiefling artwork looked cool to people who are so much current D&D players that they write D&D for a living. How can anyone spin that into being evidence that the new flavor would attract new players to the game, exactly?
I grant that as a long-time D&D player, my opinion itself cannot be evidence for or against a new flavor attracting people to D&D . . . but then, neither can yours. The
only solid data either of us has is that, in thirty years of RPGing, no other RPG flavor has been as successful as traditional-flavor D&D, no matter how many mechanical changes D&D has undergone. Not even TSR/WotC-backed non-traditional D&D settings have outsold their traditional-flavor counterparts. This is not exactly evidence that yet another version of not-traditional-D&D flavor is going to suddenly attract heaps of new players.
And D&D is the engine that drives the whole RPG industry. When Wizards takes a spin of the roulette wheel, everyone interested in RPGs is a chip sitting on red, praying it doesn't come up black.