To add to this: while the PCs, typically, do not want to be in combat, I assume that people playing a game which has an intricate combat system enjoy that system. And so the reason for having combats as part of the game is that pleasure.A total party kill is not the only failure outcome. Just one player character dying would be enough. The rules probably don't really "support" that well right now. But once the party needs at least something like a Raise Dead (or walk into a tavern to find a trustworthy enough fellow to fight on their side), it's a serious loss.
But determining the "chance" of TPK is actually really hard, because it's not just "math" because tactical options exist. But how do you determine the likehood of players and the GM to always do the right or wrong tactical options? Will they block choke points to reduce the amount of enemies that can attack effectively, will the Wizard drop his Fireball or a Gust of Wind or Slow at the targets where it matters the most? Will the Fighter knock some oppnent down at the right time, will the Cleric move his spirits to the right place to affect or hinder the enemy's movements, will the heals hit the target that needs it right now (or should it really have been a different spell all together that would have denied an attack?).
Part of the pleasure consists, as you say, in successfully deploying options. But this doesn't have to mean optimally deploying options. There doesn't need to be some unique optimal play in order for players to enjoy making game play decisions. There just has to be an interesting context for decision-making. Varied encounter set-ups, and synergies between the various players' options, are two ways to create this sort of interesting context.
As far as consequences go, these can be significant without involving any fatality. The same "narrative consequences" that various posters are suggesting will drive players not to rest, can be used to create consequences for fights other than death.