Monster Catalogue vs. Monster Creation Rules (vs. Why Not Both?)

GM skills dont manifest from the head of Zeus unbidden. They need to be nurtured by the game itself. Poor game design is design that assumes GMs will intuit how to make things work instead of showing them how they can work.

But a GM agnostic skill can be signaling to players that PCs are in over their heads. This can be blunt "This threat is too great for the PCs. PC fatalities are likely" or coached in the narrative. "The Beast of The Hexmarches has slain heroes greater than you. You must first seek the means to slay the beast before you stand a chance."

I'm sometimes super blunt by putting what I call "flags" on encounters (Yellow, Red and Black) in 13th Age, though its more to signal resource use (since I have a lot of people are compulsive hoarders) than to flee, since if it gets to that 13th Age has a pretty abrupt "The PCs just get to" policy for that if need be. That said, I've had a couple times I went back and downgraded a monster on an encounter because I realized it was probably a mistake. And I'm a GM with literally decades of experience, I'm doubting I'd have had the good sense to do that in my first year doing it.
 

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Look, often the most basic of thumbnail math of a challenge is simple. How often will the PCs hit/effect the challenge? 50% of the time? Less or More? How many successful actions will it take to overcome the challenge? Multiply then divide by the number of PCs. Thats how many rounds very roughly they might expect it to take to overcome. Can they mitigate the threats of the challenge, like damage or status effects? In the end, can they go the distance?

The latter is where the devil is in the details, though, especially if their ability to do so is a limited resource.
 

I'll note that both Fabula Ultima and Fallout 2d20 each have both a catalogue and a design guideline... as does Savage Worlds. I find Savage Worlds was lacking in exemplars of dangerous non-carnivores...
 

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