BryonD
Hero
I disagree with this statement as much as is humanly possible.3E/OGL was ambitious and inclusive to the point it was harming the core game. Running a stereotypical D&D game became a struggle.
I disagree with this statement as much as is humanly possible.3E/OGL was ambitious and inclusive to the point it was harming the core game. Running a stereotypical D&D game became a struggle.
The effective stance would be to sell it like McD, saying "Have it your way." WotC could sell the core books for whatever the new edition is in store, but make the old editions available through POD for those who just aren't satisfied or don't want change.
As I said before, this have it your way approach waters down the game. 3E/OGL was ambitious and inclusive to the point it was harming the core game. Running a stereotypical D&D game became a struggle.
I disagree with this statement as much as is humanly possible.
30-40% conversion rate? Are you being serious? After a little over a year, I'd say the conversion rate is about 75%-80%, with new and returning players more than making up the difference. Thats all speculation, but 30-40% is a bit ridiculous.
Its funny to me. A year ago (around the release) I predicted that Goodman would probably do alright because good and ready to run modules fit exactly with the easy-to-prep, simple-to-play game approach. But I didn't think other kinds of 3PP would resonate with the 4E fan base. Not enough for market viability.
As I mentioned, Green Ronin's Freeport is a perfect working example of a neutral campaign. Currently there are guides for 3e, True20, Mutants & Masterminds, C&C, to name a few and a 4e guide is supposedly in the works via license.
While I most certainly dont think its a 50-50 split, or even a 60-40 split, I highly doubt also its barely 5% either.....
Perhaps fragmented is a better word.
When the idea of only a 30-40% conversion rate from 3e to 4e gets tossed around, it's not a stretch to think that the fanbase is split quite a bit. Gaining enough new people to make up for that sort of fragmentation is the question, and I can only speculate if WotC is doing so.
Clearly my personal experience is not a good representation. But my experience is that it is far greater than 5%.
That is not to say that it is pure loss. Obviously 4E also gained a significant number of fans that did not play 3E. So on total number of players the lost 3E players will very much overstate the net fan base impact.
However, when we are specifically talking about comparing 3PP popularity from 3E to 4E, it isn't just total numbers that matter, but the people who make up those numbers and their gaming style that is important.
3E was built as a complex game. And it was also built in parallel with the OGL. I suspect the two were pretty much fully independent, but at a minimum the spirit of that type of gaming was at the forefront and the knowledge of this connection was present.
Of course there will be exceptions (and I think anyone who posts on ENWorld is to some extent an exception by definition), but the 4E fan base, taken as a collective, is less inclined to want more complications in their game than the 3E fan base, taken as a whole collective. 3PP products are often perceived as a complication.
The whole 3PP thing was on very thin ice to begin with for 4E because it is in conflict with the marketing philosophy of the game's very core.
Of course, WotC then vastly botched the GSL and figuring out which fatal blow killed the victim first may be impossible.
Its funny to me. A year ago (around the release) I predicted that Goodman would probably do alright because good and ready to run modules fit exactly with the easy-to-prep, simple-to-play game approach. But I didn't think other kinds of 3PP would resonate with the 4E fan base. Not enough for market viability.