New Metrics to Measure the Industry By

[kenobi65]

I would be surprised if WotC didn't already pay attention to stuff like this.

I would be extremely surprised if they shared that data, though.

Bingo.

Sholari's questions are, indeed, all *answerable*...but, unlike sales numbers, you need to do a "primary research study" (i.e., conduct surveys) to answer them.

WotC does this kind of research, though they may not ask these exact questions. Typically, to do this kind of research, WotC works with market research suppliers who have large (e.g., hundreds of thousands of households) research panels that can be used for such a study. (You use that kind of panel, rather than relying on the people who send back the comment cards in the book, in order to make sure you have as representative a sample as possible.)

However, the problem is that this kind of research isn't cheap. WotC (and probably Games Workshop) are the only game companies with the kinds of resources to do this kind of thing. And, to really get at Sholari's question (i.e., are these numbers declining), you need to redo the study on a regular basis (probably yearly), in order to see the trends.

And, as Maggan points out, the company that pays for such research isn't likely to then release the results to the industry (a.k.a. the competition). As a rule, good market research is a competitive advantage, and you don't give that up easily.

It's possible that you could see an industry organization (i.e., GAMA) do something like this...but remember that RPGs are a fairly small part of GAMA, and I'm not sure how much of a budget GAMA has, anyway.

 

[diaglo]

25.4 mm = 1 inch

that's why the old system used 25 mm scale. and why movement was measured in inches.

 

[MonsterMash]

Personally I'd like to see all the financial results rebased to the Gold Piece standard!


Seriously I would think that only WotC and GW do this sort of thing, I'd guess that for WotC it might well be as part of surveys done by Hasbro as a whole as a corporate of that size operating in a consumer market will definitely be doing surveys, but there is no way that commercially valuable information like that would be released externally and even internally it'd tend to be a fairly restricted set of information.

 

[kenobi65]

Seriously I would think that only WotC and GW do this sort of thing, I'd guess that for WotC it might well be as part of surveys done by Hasbro as a whole as a corporate of that size operating in a consumer market will definitely be doing surveys, but there is no way that commercially valuable information like that would be released externally and even internally it'd tend to be a fairly restricted set of information.

WotC actually has its own market research department. They may well also participate in joint studies with other Hasbro divisions, but the kinds of questions Sholari asked about would likely be covered in WotC-specific research.

 

[eyebeams]

While sales are great, my sense is that many of these metrics are in decline.

I'd say the opposite is true. Sales are bad, but lots of people game without being active consumers. MUDs and board play feature many games where nobody uses any commercial rules at all.

 

[kenobi65]

I'd say the opposite is true. Sales are bad

Depends who you talk to, and what sort of sales (company versus category). Charles Ryan has said on these boards that D&D sales last year were very good. I've also seen some other publishers say that they're doing well. But, it seems (from what I've read here) that many of the smaller RPG publishers are *not* doing so well. How this translates to the industry as a whole, I'm not sure.

 

[CarlZog]

The majority of players actually buy very little gaming stuff (a few player-specific books, some dice, a mini for their PCs). Aside from those items, the bulk of sales come from GMs and hardcore "book-junkie" players.... the occasional guys with the ever-increasing gaming book collections. There are tons of players out there still using 10-20 year old gaming material who would score wonderfully on your metrics and yet haven't bought anything from the industry in ages. The industry wants metrics that tell it about its regular customers, and not every gamer (I'd even hazard to say well under half of all gamers) are *regular* customers in any sense of the word.

Based on nothing but anecdotal evidence and my own gut instinct, I'm inclined to agree with this. Only one or two people (the DMs) are buying most of the stuff in an average game group; it's certainly true in our group.

This is a small hobby to begin with. If for every group of five or six players, only one or two are buying anything, the market is suddenly really small, and you're relying on those few folks to buy a LOT.

Carl

 

[nyrfherdr]

It is not just a matter of the cost of collecting that kind of data. How useful is that data in actual practice.
Collecting data like Sholari suggests is only useful if you can do something with it.
Measuring the 'health' of the RPG community provides what in the form of actionable data.

The data may very well be fascinating, but how does it help to increase the size of the population and or increase business for the industry?
Player Satisfaction does what for you precisely?
What is the cost of finding the casual players and what benefit do you get from their opinion?

These questions would need to be answered very carefully before anyone spent money on them.

(By the way. WOTC does indeed have market surveys. I believe they are done on a quarterly basis. They are representative sample based and they change the questions slightly to measure buying patterns and overall interest in their products. They put this together with their sales data to make marketing decisions. They don't share the results for obvious reasons.)

Just more ramblings from the nyrfherdr.
Game ON!

 

[Sholari]

It is not just a matter of the cost of collecting that kind of data. How useful is that data in actual practice. Collecting data like Sholari suggests is only useful if you can do something with it.

That data is plenty actionable just not to all gaming companies. For instance, what activities can WOTC or GAMA do to aid with group formation, new player recruitment, DM satisfaction levels, etc. I'd argue there is a good deal that can be done to move the needle on those things very cost effectively. However, everyone is so laser-focused on the direct sales numbers that they miss the big picture. I'd say if you look at the lifetime value of the average D&D consumer, it has the potential to be quite substantial.

Therefore if I were WOTC one of the things I would focus on is how to lower the barriers to new players entering the game as much as possible. The strategy for doing has not been very effective. The Basic Game is much too high of a price point for someone that doesn't already have a stake in the game. Instead I would make the Basic Game free and downloadable from the internet. I would also recruit the best talent I could get to design a Basic Game adventure that is both incredibly user friendly and incredibly memorable. It needs to be good enough to stand out from movies, computer games, etc. as a more interesting form of entertainment. (Competition for leisure hours is the real competition). I would also look for highly targeted direct marketing methods to distribute this content to people that have a high propensity to become gamers through compatible activities.

Next I would take a more active role in facilitating group formation and retention as much as possible. I think it is common sense to say that active gamers have a much higher customer lifetime value than non-active gamers. For instance, why doesn't WOTC have a player registry? This would be a very low cost support tool that would positively impact the group formation metric. Anytime a person moves it is a challenge to find a new gaming group. What are other major reasons that groups fall apart and how can the industry combat it?

These are just a couple examples on what could move the needle on some of these longer term metrics.

 

[MerricB]

The Basic Game is much too high of a price point for someone that doesn't already have a stake in the game.

You speak as someone who has no money.

The price of the Basic Game (us$25) is incredible. Compare it to almost any other game. Only the real mass-market games such as Monopoly go cheaper.

You are also missing the support Wizards gives through its retailer programs and the RPGA.