NFL Playoffs and Superbowl

Crothian said:
I always hear how teams are lucky, and luck has to be near impossible to judge. I mean we all know OSU was lucky to win the national championship, and the Patriots were lucky with their season in 2001. At least those teasm were called lucky at the time.

Luck is pretty easy to judge. When a stastically unimpressive team wins a lot, they're either lucky or playing other bad teams. And it's pretty easy to see, too; usually teams that massively overachieve (like the 2001 Pats) take a step back the next year when it comes to wins and losses, even if they improved. The Pats were able to turn that 2001 team into the base of a dominant team (the statisticcally very impressive 2003 and 2004 teams) largely because Bellicheck understood that he'd just had a charmed season, and didn't stand pat.
 

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Stone Angel said:
I am going for the Eagles over Atlanta next week. For some reason it is just hard for me to take atlanta seriously. I understand that they are good and they had to be good to get this far but I just see Philly as a better team.

There's good reason not to take the Falcons serously. Statistically, Atlanta's a mediocre team. Philly is a good team. The Pats and Steelers are the two best teams in the NFL -- and the Pats are better. Stats can't say who's going to win any one game, but they can say who's likely to win, and the Eagles should be heavily favored.
 


Well, I have to pick the Falcons, since they're my team. If they play Philly like they did the Rams, I think they have a shot. Should be an interesting game: a team that doesn't let QBs run (Eagles) vs a team with the best running QB (Falcons). Something has got to give...
 

Captain Tagon said:
I'm going to take the Falcons and the Steelers in the Super Bowl. I really want to see if that line backing core can contain Vick at least a little.

Heck, I wouldn't mine seeing the Patriots linebackers contain that run game of the Falcons.....
 

I'm hoping for an Eagles/Steelers Super Bowl, but being a pessimist I expect a similar result to what happened the last time both teams made their respective conference championship games. Plus it scares me that Salisbury is already picking the Eagles to win, if Hoge picks them as well, I know they’ll lose.

Dimwhit said:
Well, I'm biased, but Vick has always been an awesome QB.

No he’s not, he’s an average to poor QB, who is the best runner outside of Barry Sanders from the last twenty years or so. He is however an awesome player, and once his passing ability comes around he’ll be an awesome quarterback.

In fact I think Vick is in the same place in his career McNabb was at a two or three years ago, not quite developed passing skills, no quality receivers to throw to, and the need to rely on his feet to make plays.

Silver Moon said:
They even got a crack about that into the opening of Saturday Night Live. I think he would have been forgiven for the first one, it was mighty long and he barely missed it. The second one however earned him permanent Goat status.

Maybe, but it shouldn’t. This one lies at the feet of the coaching staff, right along with the Scott Norwood miss, 43 and 47 field goals aren’t gimmies, especially in a stadium like Heinz Field, and to settle for long field goals like that is a sure way to lose a game.

drothgery said:
Pittsburgh and New England are more evenly matched; the Steelers superior defense against the Patriots superior offense. I think that New England's offensive edge is greater than the Pittsburgh's defensive edge and New England isn't starting a rookie QB. >snip<

I’ve been thinking since Saturday night that maybe Pittsburgh should play Maddox, start Ben, but if he starts to slip make a change. Ben’s play has being going down over the course of the season, so…

GlassJaw said:
Steelers looked VERY beatable in the Jets game, and that was at home. If it wasn't for a stupid kicker, they should have lost.

Keep in mind though that A) The Jets played the Steelers close in the regular season (closer than the Pats in fact), B) have a good D and a good running game, so were hardly chopped liver, and C) Were only close in the game because of a punt return touchdown and an interception return TD, or in other words the Steelers defense shutdown the Jets.

So don’t go over reacting to hat happened in the previous week, just like a lot of people did after the wild card round.

msd said:
This one really can't be pinned on Manning (believe me...I spent half the night trying to figure out a way how :D). The guy can't do his stuff if he is never on the field and let's face it, he was practically never on the field.

I’d say the third biggest problem was the case of Seahwakitis his receivers had at the start of the game, which fueled the second biggest problem the Colts had in the game, the case of here we go again syndrome.

Of course the biggest problem was the fact the Pats are just a better team.

Dimwhit said:
Well, I have to pick the Falcons, since they're my team. If they play Philly like they did the Rams, I think they have a shot.

Please, that's no way to judge this game. It's similar to how all the talking heads gave the Rams and Vikings a chance against the Falcons and Eagles, they saw impressive performances in the previous games and failed to take into consideration that the teams they beat were bad, so judging how ATL will do against PHI based on their drubbing of the Rams is misguided at best.

To sum up, predicting how a team will do against someone based on their play against inferior competition is a mistake.

The Rams, Vikings, Seahawks, and even the Packers didn't deserve to be in the playoffs, and only got in because everyone behind them was even worse. The NFL should excluded them given the Falcons and Eagles an extra bye and a pass straight to the NFC championship game and had a few exhibition games in between with the also rans to fill timeslots.
 
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drothgery said:
There's good reason not to take the Falcons serously. Statistically, Atlanta's a mediocre team. Philly is a good team. The Pats and Steelers are the two best teams in the NFL -- and the Pats are better. Stats can't say who's going to win any one game, but they can say who's likely to win, and the Eagles should be heavily favored.

Can I be smug now that the Eagles have won handily?
 



GentleGiant said:
Pittsburgh needs a SERIOUS comeback to make it now... Hehehe :D

They had a rough first half, and that TD after the challenged call was a tough blow. I'm all for NE, but I'm not willing to count the Steelers out yet.

On a side note, if it ends up being Philly/Pittsburg for the Superbowl, who does the governer bet against? Does he sit out and it go to the mayoral level? Has this happened before?
 

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