I can only speak from my own experience, as I don't follow industry trends nearly as much as I should.
As a small press d20 publisher I frequently buy d20 products from my competitors. Also, since I can research my customer names, I know that several of my own customers are other d20 publishers themselves (including some pretty big names in the industry) . Its funny how much money is just trading hands between publishers.
I also trade products with other publishers.
I also send them comp copies when I re-use their OGC, which I am doing more and more as time goes by (why re-invent the wheel? I have more important things to do)
I didn't find the change to 3.5 to be troublesome. Conversely, I found it to be a boon.
Raysr said:
Additionally, the flood of product that first came out also meant that there were many similar products in development at the same time. How many dragon books came out in a short span of time? 5? In any case, this paralell development of similar products precluded the use of OGC from another company as that other company was busy developing their own OGC for the same thing.
That's just a hazard of the business. Given time, the cream will rise to the top.
Raysr said:
While it was expected that a number of companies would form or move to producing OGL content to support D&D, the actual numbers were at least an order of magnitude higher than expected. This had the effect of effectively flooding the market with product, a good portion of it of questionable quality (note: I am referring to 3.0 product mainly, not 3.5). In this instance I would say that it was too successful. It got to the point that distributors were refusing to deal with any more new companies, only with those who had established themselves early on
Again, I think that is the natural ebb and flow of business. A rush then a pull-back. Perfectly normal. Yeah, it was a lot bigger of a rush than they expected, so the pull back seems more severe too, but its not a death knell.
This is because as they move away, they are beginning to split the customer base. No longer is it just D&D and lots of supplements. Now you have D&D, C&C, Arcane Evolved, Iron Heroes, Mutants & Masterminds, True20, Spycraft, Grim Tales, and more. All vying for the same customers.
Yeah, but as others have pointed out, those systems are still pretty similar. And, that's what WOTC wanted anyway. I know I've seen Monte say that he was disappointed that there wasn't more experimentation with the core system (as of about 2 years ago). I think that has changed somewhat, and its a good thing.
Also remember that gamers usually change campaigns every 6 months or so. Just because those systems you mention are competing, doesn't mean that customers are making Either/Or decisions. They may buy Grimm Tales today, play for 6 months, then buy Spycraft and play for another 6 months. Although the systems are different, they are similar enough that players can do that without learning a whole new system, which was one of the goals of the OGL.
Lastly, I agree with you that the shape of 4e will have a significant impact on the industry, DnD and the OGL, but I also think that the OGL and derived games will still be around even if 4e is closed content.