I just don't think that there is the local passion necessary to hold a national convention that has relevance for RPG's in Columbus.
Having a strong local base helps. However you can still draw attendees under the right circumstances. (Indianapolis is not all that far from Columbus, after all.) Origins is still a fun show, but it currently benefits from few of those circumstances.
Origins has always been known as a convention that is open to board gamers, wargamers, and minis gamers; that's always been part of its identity, something that used to make it somewhat distinct from Gen Con. But Gen Con grew to encompass those things--no surprise, as first TSR and then WotC more actively published card and board games. Now, with Gen Con being run by a company with no formal publisher affiliation, the con is even more flexible.
And the growth and strength of Gen Con is a real problem for Origins. It's so close on the map and on the calender that potential attendees--gamers, pros, companies--often have to select only one. It only takes a couple of companies selecting one show over the other (for whatever reason) to determine which show will attract the gamers and pros.
I attended Origins regularly for a number of years, but haven't gone lately because there are other shows (Gen Con, San Diego Comic Con) that are more important. As more and more publishers don't show up at Origins or send only skeleton crews, I can schedule fewer meetings and so have less of a reason to attend. I can also count on fewer impromptu meetings, which can often be more important than the scheduled meetings. I came up with the idea for
Hobby Games: The 100 Best while at Origins and had several brief discussions with potential writers to see if they might participate, then spoke with Green Ronin about publishing the project. And it's good for the industry as a whole for people to actually meet each other and dispel some of the misperceptions that build up through e-communication--plus, it's a ball to hang out at Big Bar on Two and talk about sword-tossing in fantasy films with Erik Mona and other friends I rarely get to see.
The same dynamic applies to gamers, with official, company- or creator-run events in place of business meetings. As companies stop showing up, that starts a spiral. Fewer people attending means companies have less of a reason to set up booths and so fewer of your friends attend, which further erodes the attendance, which...
Wizard World Chicago--formerly the Chicago Comic Con--has had similar problems because of big comics shows in New York and San Diego and, yes, because of Gen Con. They're going to be hurt even more by C2E2, which in running (wisely) in April, not over the summer, and is doing a lot of things to actively counter mistakes Wizard World has made in recent years.
Origins could bounce back, but they need to take the C2E2 route and give some publishers a reason to return--or even just to send their top people. They need to figure out what they can do that Gen Con can't do well, what they can offer than Gen Con doesn't. Maybe they need to move the shows around every year, like they did in the past. They also have to figure out what has made the relationship between GAMA and some of the publishers so toxic and either work to solve the problems or find ways to work around those issues for the show.
That may not be possible. Some of the GAMA feuds with the bigger companies or individuals who are now important with bigger companies are long-standing and bitter. They also have some serious issues related to their identity as a publisher-run operation. (eg. Some years back I suggested that they run a more robust freelancer/creator track of programs, something Gen Con has rarely done well, but some of the GAMA board balked because they didn't like the idea of someone standing up in front of people at the show and suggesting ways to deal with companies--some of which were paying for booths at the show--who, say, offer unfair contracts or don't pay money owed.)
GAMA need to do the same thing with the awards--figure out what the goal should be and how to get there. They could make the awards better, but there are fundamental issues with the way GAMA is structured that make that very difficult to achieve. I think Paul Tevis and a lot of the board members now are sincerely interested in making improvements; I hope they succeed and bring the con and the awards back from the brink.
Cheers,
Jim Lowder