OT: SARS - Should we be worried?

Warlord Ralts said:
I haven't heard of any smallpox outside of labs in quite a while, with the exception of a couple of short outbreaks in Africa that quickly subsided and only hit about 10-20 people. Otherwise, for the most part, it's pretty much gone.


last case in Africa was 1974. last case from a lab contamination was 1976 in the UK. another case appeared in Russia from a biowarfare leak subsequently.

I'm still dismissing it. Even weaponized smallpox isn't that big of a threat anymore. Unless there is a radical change in smallpox, it's down and eating dirt.

i work in 1 of the 2 places they still have it openly. there was a debate a few years back about destroying our stockpile.



I'm vaccinated. Recently.
And yes, I realize that the common smallpox vaccinattion program in the US ended in the early 1970's.

unless you are in the current Armed Services or a member of a first response team or a public health official. i have to doubt this claim.

recent would be in the last 3 years.

prior to that it would be at least 18 years since your vaccination. they stopped vaccination in the US in the early 70s. and worldwide by 1974.

11years is the current guess on the efficacy of the vaccination.
 

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For those people who aren't worrying too much about the 4% mortality rate, keep in mind:

Between the easy means of transmission, and the frequency of mutation, SARS has the properties which make the cold or the flu such common diseases. This means that, if it establishes it a similar foothold, it could be the same sort of recurring, everybody-gets-it-eventually diseases.

That's a very bad scenario, considering the 4% mortality rate (which is probably not an accurate number.) It's hard to estimate what percentage of the population gets infected any given year, but even if just .5% do, that's still about 60,000 new deaths in the US alone. I'm not sure what the annual death rate is for any given thing (car accidents, I'd imagine, are still higher), but that doesn't matter: Just because it isn't the end of the world, doesn't mean it isn't a significant change in the world. An extra 60,000 deaths is going to have repercussions on any economy and society...

Of course, that's what I'd call the worst-case scenario, or at least the worst one that's supported by the evidence. There's a reasonable chance of this If it becomes a regularity, and we can't find treatment for it, the annual worldwide death toll could easily reach into the millions. The big feature there is that it would be a regular phenomenon.

Now, one of the keys to this being a possibility is that very 4% mortality rate. One of the reasons ebola wasn't more devastating than it was was the high mortality rate: It would sweep through an area, and people would be gone before they could infect anyone else. SARS doesn't interrupt its own spread like that... It has a decent latency period, a high potential for transmission, and a relatively low mortality rate -- that's a recipe for epidemic.

Will it become an epidemic? No, or at least, not if it doesn't have any surprises left. The heavy-handed response by the WHO as well as various national health care administrations are probably the best approach -- if anything, they take the disease too seriously (compared to what the evidence suggests), but hey, "err on the side of caution." The news media, for what it's worth, is at least doing its part in getting the public sufficiently concerned (even if there approach seems stupid given the actual facts) -- if it gets people to wash their hands and cover their mouths when they cough, there's that much less potential for transmission. (Although I've heard more than a few debates about whether or not covering your mouth when you cough is a good social custom -- it results in a higher concentration of infectious agents on a smaller area, such as the next doorknob you touch, instead of letting them disperse into a less-concentrated and therefore less-infectious space... Of course, with something as infectious as SARS, it might be better to give it to the next guy who touches the doorknob rather than half the room you're in.)
 

FireLance said:
Hi, all. This is Firelance posting in from sunny, SARS-hit Singapore. This is not a report from the trenches. I am not a healthcare worker, nor do I know anyone who is infected with SARS. This is just a view from a man in the street.

(2) People are becoming more civic-minded about illnesses. They stay home when unwell, and if they cough or sneeze in public, they make an effort to use a handkerchief.

I've been to Singapore. I didn't think you guys could get more 'civic-minded'. :)

*:> Scott
 

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