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D&D 4E Paizo and 4e - Vive le Revolution!

GVDammerung

First Post
In another thread, Eric Mona has imagined a possible sequence of events wherein Paizo might not immediately switch over to the 4e rules, if those rules could not be provided to Paizo in a manner sufficiently timely to accommodate the production of the third Pathfinder adventure path. In the same thread, he mused about perhaps even producing a Paizo “3.75 edition” set of rules if such a hypothetical third Pathfinder adventure path were well enough received. I would like to suggest that Paizo do just this.

While the OGL gives Paizo the opportunity to create a 3.75 set of rules, it is doubtless safer and easier for Paizo to adopt the forthcoming 4e rules and continue to support D&D as published by Wotc. However, 4e has not met with universal acclaim and, in part, this is because it is significantly departing from prior editions in terms of both the rules and the flavor of the game. Are there enough D&D gamers sufficiently disgruntled with the impending 4e to make a 3.75 rules set from Paizo and a line of conforming products commercially viable? That’s the open question. If there were a sufficient number of such gamers, Paizo could find its business greatly increased.

It is my opinion, that Paizo is in just the right position at just the right time to do the heretofore unthinkable – goes heads up with D&D as published by Wotc with a competing version of D&D. Paizo would not need to “win” or “beat” Wotc to be successful. If Paizo saw its business increase by say 30%, I think they might well break even. Anything more than a 30% increase would be gravy. And, of course, the goal should be more like at least a 50% increase in their business. Can this be reasonably possible in anything but a pipe dream? I think so.

The keys to Paizo launching its own 3.75 edition of D&D are four. Two are must haves and two are highly desirable.

First, how fast can Paizo get a 3.75 rules set to market? 4e launches in May 2009. Paizo would, I think, need to be to market no later than August 2009 – Gencon or bust. There are three ways they might be able to do this. One – perhaps the Paizo staff has sufficiently house-ruled 3x in their own games to have a basis for seeing a 3.75 edition with a little more elbow grease. Two - perhaps Paizo can bring on board some folks who can do the heavy lifting for them. Paizo has certainly worked with a number of heavy weight D&D folks. I’ll come back to this.

Second, will Necromancer Games support a 3.75 rules set from Paizo. Necromancer Games is already partnered with Paizo. This would take it one – big – step further. Paizo has a sterling reputation and so does Necromancer. Both have established themselves as “brand names” with devoted customers. Necomancer’s support would combine two great tastes to taste greater together.

The above are the MUST HAVES. Now, for the highly desirables.

Third, if Paizo and Necromancer can agree to link up for a 3.75 edition with Paizo and Necromancer product support, can they convince Goodman Games to join the party? Goodman Games has easily as strong a reputation as Paizo and Necromancer. If Goodman Games joined with Paizo and Necromancer games, there would be a critical mass of well respected muscle behind the 3.75 edition and a virtual guarantee of top notch support. While Paizo and Necromancer could likely go it alone, adding Goodman Games to the mix would put the venture over the top. Customers would be there.

Fourth, can Monte Cook be persuaded to lend his name and his knack for the 3x rules to a 3.75 edition? Monte Cook has a reputation every bit as formidable and positive as Paizo, Necromancer Games and Goodman Games. He could also significantly speed along the development of the 3.75 rules to meet an August 2009 release date. While Monte Cook has said goodbye to game developing, a 3.75 rules set, particularly partnered with Paizo and Necromancer Games, and perhaps Goodman Games as well, might be the sort of thing to see him come out of “retirement” for one more go around. That he knows Eric Mona and is on friendly terms with him can only help.

These are the HIGHLY DESIRABLES.

With only the “must haves,” a Paizo lead 3.75 rules set would be a player, certain to give Wotc a run for its money and very likely to be “successful” at least from Paizo’s position. With both highly desirables, a Paizo 3.75 would be a certain hit and very likely to see 4e from Wotc breathing very hard indeed. Again, Paizo “wins” and so do its partners if they see their business increase by 30% plus.

Either way, Paizo is IMO in the catbirds seat. I doubt this opportunity will ever again present itself. Carpe diem! Or play it say and support Wotc’s 4e for sure dollars.

I would say - launch the Paizo Revolution! Market 3.75 on its merits but also as the “outsider” resisting the “abandonment” of D&D by 4e. Vive la Revolution! Vive la Paizo!
 

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There's a metric ton-load of if's, maybes, and things that must happen in certain ways to that approach. Few if any legitimate businesses stake their survival on such things.

Nobody wins in supporting old editions exclusively. But this kind of splitting the fan base is one of the things that killed TSR. Has no-one learned this, yet?
 

Why don't you wait till May of 2008 and see exactly what you are revolting against. I don't understand how anyone can expect a company to make such a large and possible damaging financial decision on the very little information we have on 4E.

I understand the sky is falling mentality, and the fan boy adoration that people have on a personal level both sides have their opinions, but to believe that a company will make hard and fast major changes based on the same gossip and droplets of information just absurd.
 

Oh, come on, what will the people who claim that the sky is falling going to do in the meantime? ;D

They need their hopes and dreams. The only thing that really gets tiresome is that they have to constantly remind us that they don't like 4th edition and bother us time and time again.
 


WayneLigon said:
There's a metric ton-load of if's, maybes, and things that must happen in certain ways to that approach. Few if any legitimate businesses stake their survival on such things.

Nobody wins in supporting old editions exclusively. But this kind of splitting the fan base is one of the things that killed TSR. Has no-one learned this, yet?

Sure things need to align. That is what, IMO, Paizo should be EXPLORING. Businesses that want to grow explore their options. Of course, they wouldn't make the move unless the stars aligned. But if the stars DID align after reasonable exploration . . .

As for nobody winning if this scenario worked out for Paizo after exploring it - there you are wrong. Wotc might not "win" but Paizo and company could well win by seeing their business increase. Paizo is a business and if it can profit, even at another businesses expense, that is - BUSINESS! Wotc created the OGL and if Paizo can leverage that too bad, so sad for Wotc.

Paraxis said:
Why don't you wait till May of 2008 and see exactly what you are revolting against. I don't understand how anyone can expect a company to make such a large and possible damaging financial decision on the very little information we have on 4E.

As I explained, Paizo would need to launch by Gencon 2008. So waiting is not an option. As far as the shape of 4e, that is fairly well known in broad outline - incompatible with 3x, significant rules shifts and significant shift in the "feel" of D&D. Oh, and there is the highly mixed reaction among the fanbase. NOW is the time to explore the possibilities. And if that exploration shows Paizo could partner with Necro, Goodman, or Cook, NOWis the time to get
underway. Sure the downside is there but so is the potential upside. Nobody ever made it bigtime by playing it safe. Paizo's got a shot. They should at least explore the possibility.
 

WayneLigon said:
There's a metric ton-load of if's, maybes, and things that must happen in certain ways to that approach. Few if any legitimate businesses stake their survival on such things.

Nobody wins in supporting old editions exclusively. But this kind of splitting the fan base is one of the things that killed TSR. Has no-one learned this, yet?

No, TSR was killed mostly by financial mis-management coupled with a downturn of the RPG market.

And at any rate, even if I agree with your premise that fracturing the market is solely responsible for TSR's demise, it wasn't fractured by 2e, but all the 2e settings that were impossible to support adequately.

In fact, there's a case to be made (a good one) that 2e saved TSR, at least temporarily.

If doing a new edition was a death-knell, TSR should have died well before it did, WOTC should have died almost immediately after buying TSR, cause 3e would have made things worse, and of course, 3.5 should have been a disaster...

Are you starting to grok why no one has learned this?

Maybe cause there's no evidence to support the assertion you just made?
 

Are there enough D&D gamers sufficiently disgruntled with the impending 4e to make a 3.75 rules set from Paizo and a line of conforming products commercially viable? That’s the open question.

I can virtually guarantee that the answer to this is no. Right now Paizo can sell to any player of D&D. If they shot off and made their own system they'd only be able to sell to a limited audience. This is a complete pipe dream.
 

Orcus from Necromancer has suggested that he is going to do D&D "right" regardless of what 4E says in the books. that gives me a little hope. However, i wonder if it will even be possible. Given that WotC learned the hard way -- it isn't their fault, no one had done such a thing before -- that they'd be creating their own competition with d20 and the OGL, I highly doubt they'll do the same with whatever form the OGL takes with 4E. And since companies like Paizo -- what was essentially an arm of WotC less than 6 months ago, and a company that was at least 25% responsible for making 3.5 good -- haven't even been offered up an SRD or an OGL this late in the game suggests WotC/Hasbro legal is still wrangling with the idea.

I figure we'll see something along the lines of a "Powered by D&D 4th Edition" logo thing, with much more strict rules about compliance and product types, than we saw with 3E. I am guessing that the language of the license will not allow for things like M&M or Conan. Ultimately, WotC learned that there's lots of talented people out there, and some of them have the money to put where their mouths were and that D&D belongs to whoever buys whatever supplements, not a singular company.

My quiet little dream is that 4E falls flat on its face because WotC decided, somehow (where's the market research coming from, anyway) that people that play D&D want it to be more Guild Wars and less, well, D&D. Guess what? People that prefer Guild Wars, they play Guild Wars*. D&D is a tabletop game with a long history and a powerful tradition in its "sacred cows". Tossing those things away in favor of getting the MMO players to sit down at a table a) won't work and b) should result in a marketplace smackdown.

*Note: I am going to call it right now. The first computer/video game to be labelled as being based on the 4E ruleset -- you know it is already in development -- will be a Guild Wars clone.

Also, I think that one of the reasons WotC is making such an effort to change so much with 4E -- core mechanics and flavor alike -- is to avoid the inevitable OGL based 4E reto-engineering. they don't want, i don't think, third party companies to be able to do whatever theyw ant with the 4E rules, and if they move far enough away from 3E, they have a leg to stand on when they claim some companies 4E-based product is not, in fact, derivative of Open Content.
 

Into the Woods

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