D&D 4E Paizo and 4e - Vive le Revolution!

[The Little Raven]

Yet, you've gone whole hog on the 4e flavor.

Yeah, because I'm realistic about their chances against Wizards, I'd obviously gone whole hog. Why can't you anti-Wizards people just deal with the fact that Paizo wouldn't be well served at all in trying to directly compete with Wizards over who has the current, most active D&D ediiton? It's simple for pro-Wizards people like me to deal with and admit the fact that Paizo puts out far superior adventure material than Wizards.

 

[Celebrim]

Mourn: There doesn't seem to be alot of point in discussing this with you. My point is that from my perspective, third party companies have already gone head to head with WotC and won. WotC's overall product quality is miserable.

We have pretty good evidence that there is strong continuing support for 3.X edition and dislike of much of the direction 4e was going in. (My favorite example being that they announced that there would be faster leveling in 4e and in EnWorld polls only 20% supported that - fewer than supported slower leveling.)

Suppose EnWorld conducts a poll next spring of how many DM's plan to move to 4e, and its only 60% or even 50% or even 30%. Then what? You think the third party publishes are going to give up a slice of the market that large?

 

[The Little Raven]

Mourn: There doesn't seem to be alot of point in discussing this with you. My point is that from my perspective, third party companies have already gone head to head with WotC and won. WotC's overall product quality is miserable.

See, you define success as making a product you like. I define success as beating your intended competitor in market penetration, sales, and revenue generation. There's no point trying to discuss this when your entire metric is based on something completely subjective like that.

If Paizo tried to compete for a demographic as large as the core D&D demographic, they would suffer financial ruin. They have neither the infrastructure, nor the liquid resources, nor the financial backing to attempt such a huge move.

Suppose EnWorld conducts a poll next spring of how many DM's plan to move to 4e, and its only 60% or even 50% or even 30%. Then what? You think the third party publishes are going to give up a slice of the market that large?

You honestly think a skewed source like a non-random selection found here at ENWorld is a real indication of any kind of prevailing mentality of the market? Hell, RPG.NET is at least as big as ENWorld, and they often have VERY different prevailing mentalities over there.

But if you think some forum polls are a substitute for market research, then why don't you take the bold step of doing 3.75 yourself?

 

[psionotic]

Every major third party company will support 4e. The question is not if they will change over, but when they will change over.

I suppose that a few third parties may offer materials that are dual statted, or create web enhancements for backwards compatibility, but the idea that any of the major ones will stay with 3.5, or even less likely, come up with some kind of hybrid version is frankly ludicrous. There are too many downsides and too few ups.

 

[Rechan]

You honestly think a skewed source like a non-random selection found here at ENWorld is a real indication of any kind of prevailing mentality of the market? Hell, RPG.NET is at least as big as ENWorld, and they often have VERY different prevailing mentalities over there.?

Thank you.

 

[Cadfan]

psionotic- Exactly. This is one of those "Woah, step away from the internet" moments for me, when I realize that I'm talking with people's who's grasp on reality is... lets just say, very different from my own.

 

[Matthan]

Mourn: There doesn't seem to be alot of point in discussing this with you. My point is that from my perspective, third party companies have already gone head to head with WotC and won. WotC's overall product quality is miserable.

We have pretty good evidence that there is strong continuing support for 3.X edition and dislike of much of the direction 4e was going in. (My favorite example being that they announced that there would be faster leveling in 4e and in EnWorld polls only 20% supported that - fewer than supported slower leveling.)

Suppose EnWorld conducts a poll next spring of how many DM's plan to move to 4e, and its only 60% or even 50% or even 30%. Then what? You think the third party publishes are going to give up a slice of the market that large?

Do you know what strong evidence is? It isn't the (generous number here) 100 people all over the internet who are saying that they will never convert to 4E because of *insert reason here*. Using message board traffic as evidence is tenuous at best. Strong evidence would be sales. The only evidence I've heard in that regard is, I believe, Morrus posting a few weeks back about how ENworld's pdf store has basically stalled in sales since the 4E announcement. Evidence is pointing that the grand majority of the audience is planning on converting. Any company would be foolish to try and serve an ever dwindling market when they could easily try and capture a wider market.

Paizo, Necromancer, and any other 3rd party publishers will want to ensure that they can not only maintain their customers, but gain new ones. New customers, if there are any to be had, will come in through the main gateway to the hobby, Dungeons and Dragons. Which to any new customers will only be known as 4E.

 

[Glyfair]

Monte's last RPG book (supposedly) was Monte Cook's World of Darkness. I doubt he'd come back to do a revision of a revision of what he worked on years ago.

And if you look at his blog where he describes the house rules for his current campaign, I think you'll notice that a lot of the house rules are rules for 4E (spellcasters have abilities usable at will, 20 levels of spells).

 

[HatWearingFool]

Mourn: There doesn't seem to be alot of point in discussing this with you. My point is that from my perspective, third party companies have already gone head to head with WotC and won. WotC's overall product quality is miserable.

Wow. They've already won? I'm pretty sure that all the sales of all the third party companies added together wouldn't make a dent in WOTC sales numbers.

Don't get me wrong I love playing and reading about non-D&D games but this statement sounds like a mac fanatic talking about how Apple is about to wipe out windows (this is being typed up on a macbook) because of VISTA.

It's the same market split in RPG's except that you would have to add all of the non-WOTC companies sales together to get to the equivalent Apple position.

EDIT: And for all those people hoping that 4E flops, remember that where D&D goes so goes the entire industry. Without D&D I seriously have to question wether or not the Hobby would continue to be economically viable. How many RPG stores really on D&D sales to stay open?

 

[Grog]

You honestly think a skewed source like a non-random selection found here at ENWorld is a real indication of any kind of prevailing mentality of the market?

Indeed. There are very good reasons why no one takes online polls seriously.

As for Paizo making 3.75, they could do it, but they'd be going for a niche market. Now, it's possible to make a very good living serving a niche market - but it'd be a huge risk, and it might not be one they'd want to take. So who knows.