I'll take all the "ifs" out of it. And put in some "wants".
I "WANT" to support 4e. Why? Philosophically, it is the theme of Necro "3e rules, 1e feel" should probably be "modern rules, old school soul"(tm). Our model as a thrid party company is Judges Guild. They always adopted the newest versions of the rules as they came out. It is our goal to make sure that the current game of D&D is always fully injected with what I consider to be the right feel--a classic feel, a respect for the history of the game, etc.
I "WANT" D&D, whatever its incarnation, to thrive. To do that, I think that I and others need to have 4e products at launch to help people get on board 4e because I see a division in the gaming public as bad for D&D as a whole.
I "WANT" the 4E rules to, in short, RULE! I am a gamer first and a business person second. I have always run Necro as the company that I always wished existed when I was a younger gamer. I make decisions with my gut and my heart and NOT with the almighty dollar. And I think we have shown that following your passion is a successful business model, because in doing so--in following our hearts and not our wallets we have wound up making money. So as a gamer first, I really want 4E to just totally rock my socks.
But that said, Bill and I cant work for nothing. Necro is a hobby company for us, that is true. But still a company. We have writers, authors, artists, etc. They dont have day jobs as a lawyer to feed the wife and kids. So we still, to some extent, have an obligation to not just go be a bunch of idiots and throw money away.
I wont sit idly by doing nothing while WotC sorts out the 4E rules delivery issues for d20 publishers. I cant.
In short, my hand might be forced.
I want to support 4e. I am planning to support 4e. I have announced support for 4e. I have, with Paizo, started the solicitation process for 4e products. I am working on content. I am working on layout and design. For 4e products.
But this is far from finalized. If WotC doesnt get me everything I need in time to be relevant at or around launch that that really changes my calculations.
And, like Mona, I can envision a situation where by WotC failing to get us stuff in a timely fashion that it makes it real difficult for me to embrace 4e. That isnt my goal. Just the opposite. But I cant keep sitting here on some killer products--Tegel Manor, The Abyss (oh, hadnt heard about that one yet, had you?

), etc.-- and wait for WotC to get me to 4e. If things take too long, I cant just wait. And if I cant do 4e, then just staying 3.5 doesnt make sense either. Because once 4e does launch, without me on board, that system dies in a true commercial sense. Maybe pdf publishers thrive. But distributors are going to have a very limited appetite for 3.5 products following launch of 4e. So if I cant do 4e, and if 3.5 isnt really a long term viable solution, then it makes sense for Mona and I (and maybe others, and maybe such discussions have already been had months ago, but I'm not saying) to do 4e "our way"--aka 3.75. In other words, to make a competing system and to support that. Now, make sure you understand this I DONT WANT TO DO THAT. I WANT to support 4e. But that isnt my call, its WotC's call.
So I WANT to go 4E. Now its up to WotC.
I guess we'll all see how this plays out.
Which explains why my cell phone bill is up these days with lots of calls to Erik Mona....
So there you have it in no uncertain terms.
And also please understand I AM NOT CRITICIZING WOTC. Those guys are good guys. In particular, I really dig Scott Rouse. He has been super cool and supportive of Necro and all the things. But they are slammed right now, is the sense I get. They are putting out a new edition, and that is a TON of work. I'm sure THEY WANT to have Necro and others on board for 4e launch. We just have to wait and see if what we all want actually comes to pass. I think it will. But if it doesnt, there is definately a scenario that plays out as Mona described.
Clark