I don't like bell curves. Or at least I don't like bell curves created from rolling more than two dice. 2d10 create a rather nice bell curve. 3d6 not so much.
Agreed (although 2d10 isn't a bell curve, it's a triangle). I'm not convinced there's anything intrinsically better about 2dX than 3dX, but I would personally rather play 2d10 than 3d6.
As for calculating success chances, have you had a statistics course? Because the 3d6 Gaussian has a mean of 1.5 and an SD of 3.0, so given to two significant figures, the chances break down like they would for any Gaussian curve:
5 or better: 98%
8 or better: 84%
11 or better: 50%
14 or better: 16%
17 or better: 2.3%
No, you didn't, because I just read through the thread again, and you never did any more than restate your position. Even the rest of this is little more than a restatement on your position:
Frequent but minor positive reinforcement of behavior (many small rewards given often) is at least as powerful a motivator as periodic major reinforcement (big rewards given after longer time intervals). According to some behavioral research, its more powerful.
(And as a GM, it may even make your game more manageable, since the deltaV of advancement is more continuous.)
In addition, random rewards can reinforce behavior even more strongly than carefully regimented rewards.
The thing is, the math and basic advancement assumptions vary greatly between most percentile systems and D&D. D&D advances (nearly) everything simultaneously, but only after much adventuring. Percentile systems grant improvements more parsimoniously, but more frequently...and typically, not by the same amount for each PC. They do this by (in some systems) improving the PC immediately for making critical successes.
So certain percentile systems offer not only frequent small rewards on a regular schedule, but also ups the psychological ante by including variable small rewards.
Those are not irrelevant differences.
My argument, again, is that they are irrelevant, because, as I pointed out, there is clearly a point where no one cares about getting paid a penny every twenty minutes. Yes, fine, we could roll 1d3 every
forty minutes and get paid that many pennies instead. But this doesn't change my argument at all. And outside of the context of this debate, where admitting that you wouldn't want to pay someone or get paid 1d3 cents every forty minutes would lose you a rhetorical point, no sane person would ever want to get paid their allowance every forty minutes. The only context under which reducing pay periods to the minimum possible period is investment banking where compound interest allows each fraction of a penny to earn interest towards more fractions of a penny. Are your adventurers investing their skill increases to get more skill increases? No? Any time you want to actually address this argument, well, that could be fun.
I use to like percentage systems until I realised that d20 is a percentage system based on 5% intervals
Yep.
Just as no one cares if you were driving down the road at 38 or 39 MPH, or whether you've been playing rpgs for 23 or 24 years, or whether it's 67 or 68 degrees Fahrenheit outside, I do not care if someone rolled an 84 or 85 on their 1d100. Of course, there are some contexts, such as a laboratory or a court of law, where that level of precision is meaningful. But in an imaginary world where we can only guess at what most quantities should be, and trust that the rules give us a simulation of reality that is at least sorta close, that level of precision is utterly meaningless.