PHB2 sold out!

[Rechan]

When less than 1/6 of your believed market has bought your books, that is a failure.

That depends.

There are folks out there who are still playing OD&D, AD&D, and 3e, because they want to play that, or they have all the books they need, or have no money, etc.

Even if every 4e book came with a free $100 bill, some people would not buy it because they're happy with what they're using now. You have to account for those who have no intention of changing, no matter the quality of your product. That's just reality, not a measure of failure.

 

[Mephistopheles]

Well, maybe they printed to a quantity to match distributor preorders. So, being "sold out" may not mean what we think it means.

I think that's true.

In some markets a seller will intentionally ration stock so that retailers will sell out of stock, with the implication following that the product is so good and so popular that the seller simply can't keep up with demand. They can then let the stock trickle to retailers and keep the product almost permanently sold out to keep the buzz going.

I've no idea if that is the approach WotC takes but it's certainly been proven to be a viable strategy by others.

 

[Charwoman Gene]

When less than 1/6 of your believed market has bought your books, that is a failure.

1 PH2, shared among the 5 players in one group and the DM. So EVERY GROUP converted to 4E. Can we stop the hyperbole soon?

 

[Agamon]

Damn, sold out? Now I'll have to get the PDF. Oh wait...

 

[chaotix42]

1 PH2, shared among the 5 players in one group and the DM. So EVERY GROUP converted to 4E. Can we stop the hyperbole soon?

This. Of the 1 DM (me) and 5 players in our group only 2 of us have purchased a PHB2 - that's all we need, really.

 

[MichaelSomething]

I am certainly having a lot of trouble buying the PH2, three stores I have tried so far have sold out. Another is hopefully getting a new shipment today.

I have had the same problem with AEG's Ultimate Toolbox.

Guess I'm lucky to have such an awesome FLGS! It has both.

 

[Piratecat]

Uh, guys, 6 MILLION D&D players are believed to exist world wide, yet only hundreds of thousands of the core 4E books have been sold. That SUCKS!

When less than 1/6 of your believed market has bought your books, that is a failure.

I'm having trouble understanding your logic, which seems flawed. Let's expand the example a bit. According to one estimate, 320 million people on Earth speak English and are literate. According to your argument, any book that does not sell 53 million copies is a failure. The last Harry Potter book sold 11 million copies -- only 1/29th of the believed market bought the book. Was it a failure?

That borders on hyperbole, but I'm sure you see my point. I'm just not sure your metrics are accurate or realistic. Let's put it this way: I am a huge fan of Paizo, and I greatly hope Pathfinder approaches those sales.

I'm not surprised the PHB2 has sold out. In publishing, you get significant discounts based on bulk printing, but those eventually max out. I imagine WotC's initial printing was likely at the maximum volume discount. Due to the cost of warehousing and carrying inventory, it's smarter to make multiple printings once you hit that point.

 

[gribble]

According to one estimate, 320 million people on Earth speak English and are literate. According to your argument, any book that does not sell 53 million copies is a failure.

To be fair, that's not a very good analogy. Now if you had a percentage of the population that enjoyed fantasy books, rather than were just literate in English, that might be a more fair comparison.

The court docs specify "hundreds of thousands" of "core books" and 6 million "D&D players". The number sold could be as low as 200,000 and still qualify as "hundreds of thousands", and "core books" probably encompass at least the DMG, MM & PHB (and with 4e it could arguably mean all books sold to date). Assume the PHB has the lions share of that (say 50%) and we could be looking at as little as 100000 PHBs sold. Given that the goal of 4e was to appeal to new players as much as existing fans, and given the total existing fanbase of 6 million... that's only 1/60 of the existing market that bought into 4e (assuming the goal of attracting new players failed - if it didn't that %age of market penetration is even lower).

Of course, having said all that, there are a lot of assumptions in play here. We could say between 1/6 and 1/60 of the existing market bought into 4e. Dunno about you, but that isn't exactly what I'd want to see as a sales/marketing exec. Maybe that's why WotC are flailing around after pirates...

 

[Piratecat]

To be fair, that's not a very good analogy.

It sure isn't! I wasn't shooting for exact numbers; I just wanted to underscore my point, which was skepticism at the 1/6th number being a clear failure.

Your analysis is useful. It's difficult to really draw conclusions based on generalities in the court documents. My friends at WotC seem pretty pleased, though, so my personal conclusions are that the book is meeting sales projections.

 

[Mistwell]

To be fair, that's not a very good analogy. Now if you had a percentage of the population that enjoyed fantasy books, rather than were just literate in English, that might be a more fair comparison.

The court docs specify "hundreds of thousands" of "core books" and 6 million "D&D players". The number sold could be as low as 200,000 and still qualify as "hundreds of thousands", and "core books" probably encompass at least the DMG, MM & PHB (and with 4e it could arguably mean all books sold to date). Assume the PHB has the lions share of that (say 50%) and we could be looking at as little as 100000 PHBs sold. Given that the goal of 4e was to appeal to new players as much as existing fans, and given the total existing fanbase of 6 million... that's only 1/60 of the existing market that bought into 4e (assuming the goal of attracting new players failed - if it didn't that %age of market penetration is even lower).

Of course, having said all that, there are a lot of assumptions in play here. We could say between 1/6 and 1/60 of the existing market bought into 4e. Dunno about you, but that isn't exactly what I'd want to see as a sales/marketing exec. Maybe that's why WotC are flailing around after pirates...

6 million players is not 6 million people buying books, and never was for any edition. Can we put an end to this ridiculous logic? And selling to 1/6 of the entire existing market is HUGE for any marketing department. My company would be pleased (overjoyed even) with selling to 1/100th of the existing market.

The new books sold well. Accept it. It's OK that the books sold well, even for people who do not like 4e, because it keeps the RPG market strong. It's a good thing for everyone that they sold well. Can we please stop stretching logic to the extreme to try and spin bad news from obviously good news?