PHB2 sold out!

[TwinBahamut]

It's fantastic to hear that despite its ups and downs the hobby is still going strong.

I'll agree with that. D&D seems to be doing great, and I'm glad about it.

Too bad we had to hear it from a court document though.

Actually, we didn't. Information very similar to this has been mentioned by various WotC people (Scott Rouse?) right here on these boards a few times before. For the most part, that merely resulted in large threads questioning whether it was all WotC spin and deception or not (I guess the whole court record thing removes that question somewhat). This all mostly took place in the context of people wondering whether D&D peaked in the 80s or not, I believe. But still, there really isn't much new information here, other than the PHB2 info.

I guess it explains why I couldn't find the PHB2 when I went to Barnes and Noble yesterday to buy manga...

 

[gribble]

My company would be pleased (overjoyed even) with selling to 1/100th of the existing market.

Seriously? You're saying that if your company brought out a new product, and marketed it to of all the people who have used your companies products before, the sales/marketing people would be "overjoyed" at selling the new product to 1 out of 100 of the users of previous products?
That certainly hasn't been my experience in any company I've ever worked in!

6 million players is not 6 million people buying books, and never was for any edition.

Very true. Though if we assume an average of 3-6 copies of the core books per group (minimum one DMG, MM & PHB, most groups will have 1-2 spare PHBs floating around at least), and an average of 4-6 players per group, then the numbers do work out at surprisingly close to one book per person playing - potential 6 million books sold...

Can we please stop stretching logic to the extreme to try and spin bad news from obviously good news?

I don't think I've stretched anything. I think my analysis has a lot more meaning than "the PHB2 first printing sold out!" (given we don't know the size of the print run and whether it only catered for pre-orders from distributors) or "the 3 core books sold well!" (without any reference to the sales expected from WotC).

This is the first time we've had access to the sorts of hard numbers that WotC themselves have been using to forecast sales and revenue. Given that we know the 4e sales/revenue is below what was forecast (as stated in the lawsuit press release), I find this sort of analysis interesting and useful, and can only compare it to my experience with sales/marketing execs - where these sorts of figures certainly wouldn't be considered "good".

 

[Gothmog]

The new books sold well. Accept it. It's OK that the books sold well, even for people who do not like 4e, because it keeps the RPG market strong. It's a good thing for everyone that they sold well. Can we please stop stretching logic to the extreme to try and spin bad news from obviously good news?

No, they can't. Because some vain hope has to exist for some folks that 4e is failing, or else their heads will explodiate!

Admin here. It's fine if you don't agree with someone; painting them to look ludicrous is far from okay. This is a good example of how to start an argument, not how to actually follow the rules and be polite to the people you're talking with. Please avoid this sort of cheap shot in the future. ~ Piratecat

In all seriousness, congrats to Scott, Mike, and all the folks at WotC. This is great news, and bodes well for the future of our hobby.

 

[Treebore]

1 PH2, shared among the 5 players in one group and the DM. So EVERY GROUP converted to 4E. Can we stop the hyperbole soon?

Hyperbole? I suggest you read. It is the CORE RULE BOOKS that have only sold hundreds of thousands of units, and are in their THIRD PRINTING with them.

So I do know what I am talking about. Plus unlike many people I started and profitably ran my own business for 7 years, part of why I was successful is because I do understand the importance of customer service and market share.

Plus I am currently starting up another business, in a whole different venue, and I will be successful once again.

So you all can knock me down all you want, but I know how good I am at business.

 

[Glyfair]

Seriously? You're saying that if your company brought out a new product, and marketed it to of all the people who have used your companies products before, the sales/marketing people would be "overjoyed" at selling the new product to 1 out of 100 of the users of previous products?

It depends on the product. If my business is cars and I put out a cover that fits my cars, I would certainly be happy with a small fraction of the market buying it.

Remember, this are accessories to the main game. Companies expect them to sell less. How much less depends on the realities of the market.

Given the RPG market, the reality is that you will only sell to a small fraction of your original audience (assuming it is an accessory for that game). Only a fraction of those who have the main game will even be interested in such a product. Only a fraction of those will actually buy the product. If you take a DM centered product, then you are starting with a small fraction of your original market to begin with.

 

[Branduil]

Hyperbole? I suggest you read. It is the CORE RULE BOOKS that have only sold hundreds of thousands of units, and are in their THIRD PRINTING with them.

So I do know what I am talking about. Plus unlike many people I started and profitably ran my own business for 7 years, part of why I was successful is because I do understand the importance of customer service and market share.

Plus I am currently starting up another business, in a whole different venue, and I will be successful once again.

So you all can knock me down all you want, but I know how good I am at business.

admin note: If you disagree with the content of someone's argument, by all means make your own counter-arguments. But don't mock other people on ENworld. It isn't big, it isn't clever, and it is likely to result in a suspension.

 

[Treebore]

I'm having trouble understanding your logic, which seems flawed. Let's expand the example a bit. According to one estimate, 320 million people on Earth speak English and are literate. According to your argument, any book that does not sell 53 million copies is a failure. The last Harry Potter book sold 11 million copies -- only 1/29th of the believed market bought the book. Was it a failure?

That borders on hyperbole, but I'm sure you see my point. I'm just not sure your metrics are accurate or realistic. Let's put it this way: I am a huge fan of Paizo, and I greatly hope Pathfinder approaches those sales.

I'm not surprised the PHB2 has sold out. In publishing, you get significant discounts based on bulk printing, but those eventually max out. I imagine WotC's initial printing was likely at the maximum volume discount. Due to the cost of warehousing and carrying inventory, it's smarter to make multiple printings once you hit that point.

WOTC has been called the market leader for years, you are not the market leader when you can't even attract 1/6th of the market that you claim exists ("you" being WOTC, they are the one that touted the 6 million "D&D" players world wide). So now we find out that their core books of their touted 4E hasn't even been sold to a full 1/6th of the "estimated D&D market world wide".

So now we finally have solid sales numbers (solid in that we know its "hundreds of thousands", which is less than 1 million), which now means we know that 4E appeals to less than 1/6th of the estimated 6 million gamers that are out there.

So now I would really like to know Paizo's numbers. I bet they are in the 10's of thousands, but if they are actually at 100,000+, then WOTC is not as big of a leader as previously believed. Especially since "Hundreds of thousands" could be as little as 200,000.

So this could actually mean "D&D" as a brand is much closer to being "toppled" than previously believed. It has all kinds of possible implications.

I actually think WOTC is much closer to 1 million, but thats largely because I have been believing their hype. Now if WOTC has been over exaggerating their success to keep the perception of being an unbeatable juggernaut alive, you know, like AIG and so many other American companies were caught doing about 6 months to a year ago, and are now going out of business, in danger of bankruptcy, etc... then the whole perception of the D&D brand will change, and become seriously devalued, just like our housing market and economy has become devalued.

So yes, this has serious possible implications for the D&D brand and WOTC.

 

[MarkB]

Edit - and it still is very much available on amazon.

Amazon UK have been sitting on my pre-order for nearly a month now with no dispatch. They currently have the book listed as "Usually dispatched within 1 to 4 weeks", which generally seems to be Amazon code for "we don't have it and don't have any more on their way, but there's a chance it'll turn up, someday".

 

[Treebore]

Whoa, look out guys, we're dealing with a master here.

Yes, when it comes to running a business successfully and understanding market implications, you are. There is a reason why so many business' fail, and only a few succeed. Only a few know what the heck they are doing, and what is going on in their market(s). I'm one of the few who know how to succeed. Soon for the second time. So thanks for recognizing that.

 

[HeinorNY]

Hundreds of thousands, let's say 500,000.
A poster suggested some groups have only 1 or 2 PHBs, so let's say all groups buy only 1 PHB. Let's say all groups have the good number of 6 people. (1 dm, 5 players)
That's 3 million 4e players, out of 6 million D&D players, with very very optimistic numbers.

---

The worldwide english readers and harry potter analogy is pretty bad, not because of the numbers, but it simply makes no sense. D&D books are in english too.

There are X number of Harry Potter readers but only 1/6 of those bought the last Harry potter book. That's a much better analogy, and I think the publisher would consider that a failure, yes.