Predict the Future: How will what we have today EVOLVE INTO 5th Edition?

[joethelawyer]

Broadly speaking, looking at such factors as:

1. The Fractured Fanbase we have today

2. Pathfinder's success/failure and how it affects the fanbase who didn't go with 4e

3. The Bleak Economic Outlook

4. 3pp's, and which ones are going with 4e versus Pathfinder/3.5/OGL versus those who choose to develop for any or all systems using copyright fair use protection

5. The PDF market vs. print.

6. Illegal downloads of PDF's, taking into account the economy and ability of people to buy legitimately to support their hobby.

7. DDI's success or failure, resulting in moving the game to an online environment or not

8. How that success or failure of DDI affects the bottom line at WOTC, which in turn affects their future development, balancing the bottom line vs. fanbase desires.

9. Th evolution of 4e, including but not limited to:

a. Miniatures-focused RPG gameplay, and it's acceptance/rejection

b. Evolution of powers, dailies, etc and cards used for them during gameplay

c. Some sort of potential merging/morphing of powers/dailies cards, miniatures, and some Magic type card game into DnD, making DnD some weird hybrid of MTG, DDI, and DDM with some RP icing thrown on top of it.

d. Adoption and develpment for 4e by 3pp's, which takes into account the GSL's eventual development and attractiveness to 3pp's.

10. MMORPG's

11. 4e's ability to attract new younger gamers over the next few years.

12. 3pp's overall success, including but not limited to:

a. Some going out of business

b. New ones springing up

c. Potential merger some of some 3pp's

13. Anything else I missed.


Mix all those factors into a big pot, stir it up, and predict the evolution of what 5e will look like. Broadly speaking, not on a feat or powers level, but more in an overall look and feel of the system level

We're not looking to hear about what you want it to look like. We don't want to see your ideal system. That's discussed in another thread (which inspired this one).

In other words, don't tell us what you want Santa Claus to bring you. Tell us what will actually be under the tree when you wake up in the morning. School clothes, underwear, black socks, and all.

Based on the factors outlined above in the Darwinian pool of primordeal gaming ooze, what 5e lifeform will emerge from it?

Try and separate your personal wants/desires/prejudices/biases/past experiences/disappointments, and just give us a cold methodical prediction.

Always keep this in mind with your prediction though: The most important consideration is the bottom line. That's just a fact of doing business, not a criticism of WOTC or any publisher.

Look at it from a business perspective, not a gamer's perspective.

I guess broadly speaking, i can see it going in one of 5 directions:

1. Back to a pen and paper based game, with miniatures and grid maps not so built into the game.

2. More online, which assumes the success of DDI.

3. A merging of Magic the card game into DnD through the dailies/powers component, Miniatures and some online component.

4. Nothing. 4e stays the default game due to lack of new development, due to lack of fanbase/revenues sufficient to make it worthwhile. the DnD license is applied to other projects, both inside and outside of WOTC/Hasbro, through some sort of licensing.

5. Some sort of OGL release.

Very interested in hearing your responses...

Thx

 

[justanobody]

1- Even more fractured as those who want to stick with 4th edition fight with those that move on to 5th edition, and some older editions players jump in with 5th edition.

2- They will probably not look back, like many that moved to C&C and HackMaster didn't really look back at 3rd edition.

3- Printing cost drive physical book prices up and digital media replaces it all on the VistaPodKindle made by Apple (a subsidiary of Time Warner-Google).

4- OGL still hanging on by the hair of its teeth, while the GSL is terminated. No licensing outside of WotC and special licenses will exist.

5- (see #3)

6- No change in piracy attempts, but the VistaPodKindle will only download and not allow copying or printing of the materials.

7- The VistaPodKindle will support video conferencing, so online gaming will be done directly through it.

8- The web only content of DDI's past will be delivered through the VistaPodKindle and WotC will get a portion of the sales of each copy.

9a- Miniatures will be replaced with icons on the VistaPodKindle whiteboard.

9b- The VistaPodKindle will have an addon to touch a power when used and refresh all powers when an hours rest has been taken to fully heal as indicated by touching the proper button on the screen, and "cards" will no longer be needed as the VistaPodKindle will display the information upon request.

9c- Magic will not appear on the VistaPodKindle so see A & B of this section.

9d- (see #4)

10- Due to the video conferencing and whiteboard built into the VistaPodKindle MMOs will be a thing of the past for all but the hard core gamers sitting in dark rooms tethered to a big screen photonic SHDHTV.

11- Depends on the amount of flashy animated graphics and imagery in the books....

12- (see #4)

13- ?????

 

[joethelawyer]

Well, i wasn't really looking for an itemized breakdown for each of the points in my outline of factors. I was more looking for an overall summary of what 5e would look like, taking all those and other factors into consideration. A one paragraph, big-picture sort of thing. Not so much a breakdown of game mechanics.


Apparently one factor I forgot to mention was that amazon kindle thingy. You really think it will become all-that, huh? An e-book reader fundamentally reshaping the way we play DnD? Or are you referring to the Kindle developing into basically the all purpose universal device sort of thing that btakes the place of laptops, ipods, ebook readers, etc?

 

[DaveMage]

If 5E is done by WotC, then what it will look like will depend on the success of 4E and the DDI.

If 4E and the DDI is a great success, then I would expect 5E would be an improved 4E-like game.

If 4E tanks or is only a moderate success, then I'd expect 5E to go in a completely new direction, maybe even with the RPG licensed to another company.

 

[joethelawyer]

If 4E tanks or is only a moderate success, then I'd expect 5E to go in a completely new direction, maybe even with the RPG licensed to another company.

Just had a funny thought. Pathfinder does well. 4e does ok, but not enough to satisfy Hasbro. WOTC licenses the Dungeons and Dragons name to Paizo. Paizo prints up thousands of stickers saying Dungeons and Dragons and slaps them on their book covers, right above the name Pathfinder. Instantly thousands of followers mindlessly love Pathfinder because it's now officially sanctified as the Dungeons and Dragons Core Ruleset.

 

[Charwoman Gene]

~ unacceptable baiting and edition warring comments removed -PS ~

 

[Rykion]

Just had a funny thought. Pathfinder does well. 4e does ok, but not enough to satisfy Hasbro. WOTC licenses the Dungeons and Dragons name to Paizo. Paizo prints up thousands of stickers saying Dungeons and Dragons and slaps them on their book covers, right above the name Pathfinder. Instantly thousands of followers mindlessly love Pathfinder because it's now officially sanctified as the Dungeons and Dragons Core Ruleset.

Here let's change it around.
Just had a funny thought. Pathfinder does well. 4e does ok, but not enough to satisfy Hasbro. Hasbro buys Paizo. WOTC prints up thousands of stickers saying Dungeons and Dragons and slaps them on the formerly Paizo book covers, right above the name Pathfinder. Instantly hundreds of followers mindlessly hate Pathfinder because it's now officially sanctified as the Dungeons and Dragons Core Ruleset.

 

[JackSmithIV]

Don't mean to derail, but I'd like to bring attention on how we've gone straight from edition wars to skipping this edition altogether. What happened to all of the threads for discussing the edition that's being played? That's going undiscussed? There's very little we can do to guess what's going to occur right out of the starting gate. We're not 6 months into an edition that might last some 8-10 years.

My Answer: There's just no way of knowing. The next edition of D&D is likely to be a result of either mistakes made in much later years, or people simply needing something new. I don't think the next system will have much to do with the failures of this one, but rather the evolution of the community. The community is what's going to be undergoing drastic changes at this point.

What are those going to be? What can the community expect if we're constantly stuck on either lamenting the past or trying to predict the future? What about now?

Isn't there an edition to play?

 

[Charwoman Gene]

Don't mean to derail, but I'd like to bring attention on how we've gone straight from edition wars to skipping this edition altogether.

Not to name names but the fuzz is hip to the trolls so tjhey change the environment they live in. Some people go along with the trolls and stuff happens. Dig?

 

[Remathilis]

Difficult to predict. Always in motion, the future is.

Honestly, its not possible to predict what 5e will look like because innovation of the ruleset only comes in the last 1/2 to 2/3rds of the editions lifespan. It would be difficult to predict 2e without Unearthed Arcana or the Survival Guides, 3e without the Player's Options line, and 4e without MM4, Bo9S and SAGA. None of the 4e books yet are blazing new paths (aside from adding some new keywords like brutal or rattling) and indeed, we haven't even seen what 4e is capable of yet.

Unless the world implodes around D&D in some fashion, I cannot see any inkling of what 5e will look like yet. Ask again in 2015...