Predict the Future: How will what we have today EVOLVE INTO 5th Edition?

[Remathilis]

Isn't there an edition to play?

Correct answer: WotC will lose money, Hasbro will sell the rights to some indie company, and the next edition will look awfully similar to [insert favorite edition/D&D clone].

And their will be much rejoicing.

 

[justanobody]

Well, i wasn't really looking for an itemized breakdown for each of the points in my outline of factors. I was more looking for an overall summary of what 5e would look like, taking all those and other factors into consideration. A one paragraph, big-picture sort of thing. Not so much a breakdown of game mechanics.


Apparently one factor I forgot to mention was that amazon kindle thingy. You really think it will become all-that, huh? An e-book reader fundamentally reshaping the way we play DnD? Or are you referring to the Kindle developing into basically the all purpose universal device sort of thing that takes the place of laptops, ipods, ebook readers, etc?

Sorry, I misunderstood. When points are laid out, I figure that they are wanted addressed individually.

I think something is coming that will turn the book world on its end before too long and economic and ecological concerns will help drive a digital paper product to a forefront of technology and everyday use over desktops, and cumbersome laptops, and small storage devices like the "x"Pods and such.

Don't know if it will be the kindle, but I think something is coming in the form of what I will call "digital paper". That will have to be taken into account for all PnP RPGs when dead tree production is illegal or much more expensive than transportable digital.

I don't feel that is too far off from coming out before 5th edition.

So combining iPhone iPod, etc is not that far fetched.

 

[JackSmithIV]

Correct answer: WotC will lose money, Hasbro will sell the rights to some indie company, and the next edition will look awfully similar to [insert favorite edition/D&D clone].

Wow, dude... really!? I... don't even know what to say.

 

[thecasualoblivion]

For the fracturing of the community, it all depends on the OGL. If the OGL starts to die out and shows no signs of being able to "win" against D&D, the fracture will cease to exist. People will either join the herd, accept reality and keep going with their own games, or leave altogether. Not having a cause to champion(OGL succeeding and turning back the tide of 4E) will make the flames die down, as they did for previous edition changes. 4E has killed 3E, but the status of 4E vs OGL is less clear. I expect that the OGL community will become diminished but not completely die out, while 4E will establish itself to the same extent 3E did.

As for 5E, its too early to tell. It all depends on how 4E and the D&D community matures. People actually playing D&D will have more to do with it than angry disaffected nonplayers on message boards.

 

[cougent]

WotC is already designing the mechanics of 4E to work across play styles so that it can be a PnP RPG, virtual table / MMO like [DDI], a CCG, and even a minis game but that will now be highly tied to either the PnP or DDI style of RPG. If WotC is smart they will work on cross platform integration with Mac and Linux DDI access and mobile support for iPhones and other web phones. I look for even more consolidation of the mechanics in 5E to the point where it is all ONE game... PnP, virtual table, MMO (with DDO integration), CCG, minis rules all as styles of play within the ONE D&D game. That is a broad overhead view based on what tiny evidence there is of what is already happening. Beyond that would be my personal speculation regarding details and as noted by others it is not yet time for that.

 

[M.L. Martin]

Wow, dude... really!? I... don't even know what to say.

I think you might want to recalibrate your sarcasmometer, Jack; it seems to be on the fritz.

And I agree with the 'it's too early to say' crowd--we haven't even isolated the trouble spots of 4E yet, much less started pushing the limits of its design space. And editions can shift in the planning--the 2E envisioned by Gygax is not the 2E we got (although neither one had the assassin as a default PC class ).

Right now, we're pretty much in the 'monk/mystic theurge is overpowered' phase, IMO.

EDIT: A prediction: If by some fluke, Paizo gets 5E, Greyhawk will be the official setting, demons and devils will occupy 25% of the Monster Manual, and the baseline PC classes will be Anti-Paladin, Assassin, Summoner, and Demon-Cultist.

 

[JackSmithIV]

I think you might want to recalibrate your sarcasmometer, Jack; it seems to be on the fritz.

Haha, sorry. What I meant to say was...

"That is a rediculous and absurd expectation, and a fate that very few people wish upon their favorite franchise"

 

[M.L. Martin]

Haha, sorry. What I meant to say was...

"That is a rediculous and absurd expectation, and a fate that very few people wish upon their favorite franchise"

Ah. Then maybe it's my measurements of Internet humor, irony and sarcasm that need to be fixed.

Doing so is more productive than arguing over whether 4E is or isn't D&D, at least.

 

[Plane Sailing]

~ unacceptable baiting and edition warring comments removed -PS ~

Banned from the thread.

 

[Lanefan]

Sad though I am to say it, I suspect 5e will - as others have already speculated - be mostly if not entirely electronic-based...and probably subscription-based as well. Cheaper to produce, and provides ongoing revenue.

In broad design terms, 5e can go one of two directions: more realist, admitting that 4e went too far in switching off the reality simulator; or less realist, in effect making it a really elaborate boardgame. Right now, 4e's kinda caught halfway between.

The other big decision to be made is whether or not to mostly eliminate the DM. If it all goes electronic, it's not a big step to reach a point where the computer also tells the story. Fully online modules, with on-the-fly rules interpretation and voice-activated commands.

Lane-"no, I said turn RIGHT...ouch"-fan