Proof D&D is in serious decline

[Libramarian]

I think you've been rounding your numbers?

Ahhh!! I did NOT change any numbers...unfortunately I don't have any explanation for what happened. Your numbers seem to be right. I may have been looking at something slightly different because I was getting a "quota limit reached" error for the original link until I opened google trends in chrome instead of firefox.

The point stands that 2012 should not be included in 4e analysis, but your numbers for the appropriate years are correct: 57% vs. 82%.

Regarding DDN, there hasn't been any big spike in interest however it's been nearly flat for all of 2012, so that is something. If we were going to say something has "stopped the rot" it would be DDN (so far).

 

[Libramarian]

What I think would be more interesting is a thread exploring the psychology of those who so actively search for signs of D&D's demise and why. I was only half-joking when I compared it to those who actively believe in and prepare for prognosticated apocalypses - a phenomenon that has existed among we humans for at least the last 5,000 years or so (and maybe longer). It's as illogical as those who think there's an alien UFO hiding in the tail of a comet waiting to take them back to their "real" home...

This is ridiculous. I don't think nor did I ever say anything to the effect that D&D's decline is apocalyptic or inevitable. I think it's reversible, but I think the evidence shows that some sort of drastic shakeup in approach is needed. That is the argument I wish to make. DDN needs to make a HUGE splash somehow. It's time to bring out all the stops. My attitude is pretty much the opposite of resigned doom-and-gloom.

I'm more tempted to explore the psychology of people like you who casually troll threads like this without really considering the evidence or arguments. There's a parallel there with climate change skeptics.

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666 post \m/

 

[B.T.]

There's a parallel there with climate change skeptics.

But if climate change is real, then why didn't dinosaurs evolve fur to survive?

On a side note, someone's always crying about how D&D is d-e-d DEAD. D&D isn't dead, not really, but at this point it's not great. The party with 3e and the OGL is over. In retrospect, 4e's radically different gamestyle is what has hurt D&D. It brought in new players, sure, but those new players are largely incompatible with reconciling the 3e fanbase, which means that WotC has possibly lost a good chunk of their fanbase to Paizo for the forseeable future.

Ah, well, them's the breaks.

 

[Neonchameleon]

On a side note, someone's always crying about how D&D is d-e-d DEAD. D&D isn't dead, not really, but at this point it's not great. The party with 3e and the OGL is over. In retrospect, 4e's radically different gamestyle is what has hurt D&D. It brought in new players, sure, but those new players are largely incompatible with reconciling the 3e fanbase, which means that WotC has possibly lost a good chunk of their fanbase to Paizo for the forseeable future.

Or to put things another way, the party with 3e and the OGL is long over. Most 3.5 players were already getting seriously disillusioned with 3.5 which is why the numbers were falling off a cliff. 4e's radically different gamestyle reinvigorated a completely fed up market, brought a lot of new people in to counteract the attrition (and would have done much better if the game wasn't released a year early, the marketing team weren't wombles, and gleemax), and enabled Paizo to ensure that the eggs weren't all stored in one basket.

 

[B.T.]

enabled Paizo to ensure that the eggs weren't all stored in one basket.

A cunning plan.

 

[Roland55]

Ah, another D&D is dying thread.

I don't mean to be dismissive, but I can't count how many of these discussions I've seen over the past 20 or so years. Maybe a little longer than that.

It's still here. Many contented folks are still playing the game. That's good enough for me.

 

[El Mahdi]

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[El Mahdi]

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[El Mahdi]

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[El Mahdi]

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