Proof D&D is in serious decline

[Neonchameleon]

I reject the premise. Even if we take Google search volume as a proxy for popularity--and I'm okay with that--those graphs don't show a game in decline!

Check out this graph, which shows 2007 to the present: http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=dungeons%20and%20dragons%2C%20d%26d&date=1%2F2007%2012m&cmpt=q

It's basically flat.

So what you've really proved is that D&D /used/ to be in serious decline, but it's been basically flat for the last 6 years. Not such a big deal.

edit: oops, the link I posted is for just 2007. Still, things have been basically flat for the last four or five years.

Huh, fascinating. Which means that 3.5 almost destroyed D&D - and 4e stopped the rot. Not at all the narrative common in many quarters.

 

[vagabundo]

WotC really needs to get themselves into kids culture again. Bring back a DnD cartoon. It's how I found out about the game.

 

[delericho]

Huh, fascinating. Which means that 3.5 almost destroyed D&D - and 4e stopped the rot. Not at all the narrative common in many quarters.

An interesting observation.

Something that is of some concern, though - there's a "mini-peak" in Aug 2007 (when 4e was announced), and another in June 2008 (when 4e was released).

There is no corresponding peak (mini- or otherwise) in Jan 2011, when 5e was announced.

(Sadly, the data doesn't go back far enough - it would be interesting to see what happened when 3.5e was announced and/or released.)

 

[Mercurius]

Then, my friend, you are a fortunate, fortunate man. You should count your lucky stars, because millions upon millions of people, such as myself, do have to decide how to spend their limited entertainment budget. Do I go to the pub, or do I buy that new RPG book? Do I go buy that PS3 game, or do I take my wife out to dinner? Do I go see that movie, or do I buy a couple of CDs?

What are these "CDs" you speak of? Some artifacts from a prior epoch?

On a serious note, though, I agree with you and wanted to give a more specific example for [MENTION=84465]B.T.[/MENTION] I read the first Game of Thrones (which I liked but didn't love) before the show came out and then, once the show started, decided that it was good enough that I could watch the show instead of read the books. Watching the show is still a time investment (10 hrs per season) but not nearly as much as reading the books (maybe 30 hrs per book), plus the quality of the show is so high that even though the books are good, I don't feel like I'm missing out.

The reports of D&D's demise have been greatly exaggerated.

There's a difference between demise and decline. Demise is death; D&D won't die, I imagine, for many decades. But decline? Well it already has from its peak in the early to mid 80s. It spiked again in the early 00s, but nearly as high as twenty years before. I suspect that there will be further spikes with each edition, but they're looking more and more like dead cat bounces than renaissances. Now it is certainly possible that D&D and tabletop RPGs experience a cultural revival and thrive again, but how to make that happen is The Big Question in the industry, and one that no one has been able to answer (obviously).

Huh, fascinating. Which means that 3.5 almost destroyed D&D - and 4e stopped the rot. Not at all the narrative common in many quarters.

Dead cat bounce.

 

[Mary_Crowell]

I fail to see how Google searches has anything to do with the health of this hobby.

I agree. I've noticed of late when mentioning a new podcast, game, interesting album, movie or what-have-you in a blog or lj post, that someone always asks for its url in comments. It does not occur to them to simply type the name into some sort of search engine and go find the information for themselves.

I think many people have just become lazy. They don't go after the information for themselves. Google really may not be the best indicator.

 

[Libramarian]

There's a spike in interest in 2006, and I've been trying to think of what was going on then...and then I realized that's when Dungeons & Dragons Online and Neverwinter Nights 2, the last major D&D videogames, were released.

I reject the premise. Even if we take Google search volume as a proxy for popularity--and I'm okay with that--those graphs don't show a game in decline!

Check out this graph, which shows 2007 to the present: http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=dungeons and dragons, d&d&date=1/2007 12m&cmpt=q

It's basically flat.

So what you've really proved is that D&D /used/ to be in serious decline, but it's been basically flat for the last 6 years. Not such a big deal.

edit: oops, the link I posted is for just 2007. Still, things have been basically flat for the last four or five years.

Google won't let me look at any more graphs for a while but I'm pretty sure you're making the mistake of looking for a linear rather than relative drop. If the trend drops by the same fraction every year, the line will curve out rather than go straight to zero. If you rip a piece of paper in half again and again, you'll be tearing off smaller pieces each time.

And then also obviously the trend will look flatter if you look at a smaller period of time.

 

[El Mahdi]

deleted

 

[Mercurius]

OK, fair enough El Mahdi...and kinda funny, too.

I'm not holding my views all that seriously either, but it is fun to speculate and I personally enjoy the perennially re-animated threads you mention and have occasionally started them myself. I find it an interesting line of inquiry - where is D&D heading? Is it an eight-track or an LP or the music itself and thus not reliant upon format? Etc.

Or, perhaps more relevant, is it akin to model railroading with an ever decreasing fanbase, but one that is still strong enough because of its diehard nature?

The psychology question is a good one. Nothing like a bit of apocalyptic (or apoplectic!) fervor...I'd chalk it up to having to do with fear of aging and, ultimately, death. We hold onto our "cultural artifacts" and project our own demise onto them.

 

[Neonchameleon]

Holy hell, it was 3.5 haemhoerraging numbers and 4e stopping the rot.

Numbers and dates:

3.5 PHB published in June 2003.
January 2004 (i.e. 7 months later): D&D: 100, Dungeons and Dragons: 62.
By December 2007, numbers were down to:
December 2007: D&D: 48, Dungeons and Dragons: 23.

Or a fall from 162 to 71. 43% of the fanbase survived the four year period after new release fever had died down.

4e was released in June 2008. Matching the time periods:
January 2009: D&D: 46, Dungeons and Dragons: 20
By December 2012 (i.e. the same just under four years later and the last full month - hence my choice of dates) numbers are:
December 2012: D&D: 37, Dungeons and Dragons: 16

Or a fall from 66 to 53. 80% of the fanbase survived the four year period after new release fever had died down.

Throw in Pathfinder (as no one's found a good algorithm for Pathfinder searches) and I wonder if this hobby isn't as healthy as it was four years ago. Interesting thing to think about. And something I seriously doubt D&D Next will manage at this rate.

 

[Libramarian]

It's clearly not fair to include the first year of DDN playtesting as part of the 4e era, Neonchameleon. Nice try though.

I'm taking the 4e end date as Dec 2011. Let's look at Jan 2004-Dec 2006 vs. Jan 2009-Dec 2011.

January 2004: D&D: 100, Dungeons and Dragons: 60.
December 2006: D&D: 60, Dungeons and Dragons: 37.
(60+37)/(100+60)= 61% remaining.

January 2009: D&D: 46, Dungeons and Dragons: 20.
December 2011: D&D: 32, Dungeons and Dragons: 17.
(32+17)/(46+20)= 74% remaining.

Little bit less, but still a substantial decline.

As for Pathfinder, there's no sense looking at the data for that term at all. Search volume is higher in 2006 than 2009. It appears to be almost totally unrelated to the Pathfinder rpg. There's a Nissan Pathfinder, and AIR there was a fantasy movie a few years ago called Pathfinder.