Proof D&D is in serious decline

[delericho]

This to me is the proof: Google searches for dungeons and dragons and D&D

That doesn't prove anything, except that fewer people are Googling the term. Most people will do so a maximum of once, and then proceed to bookmark the appropriate pages. Indeed, they may well not Google it at all, what with the requisite address being prominently displayed on every single product in the line.

I agree that tabletop roleplaying is in serious decline (it's to video games as radio plays are to TV - and with a similar fate), but this isn't really proof.

 

[Starfox]

Funny how it is the English-speaking countries that do searches... US, UK, Australia, Scandinavia...

A trend with Google, reported by Google itself and published in an article here recently, is that people no longer use bookmarks - they just google it each time, its quicker than finding a bookmark. So hoping that bookmarking accounts for the loss is not good enough.

 

[Neonchameleon]

You know what else happened in 2004? The launch of World of Warcraft - which has a related kick that requires a whole lot less buy-in. Tackling that would have been a problem even if WotC marketing wasn't determined to annoy its players for the second new edition in a row.

 

[Morrus]

While it's certainly not unreasonable to hypothesise that D&D is in decline - I'm pretty sure it is - that ain't proof. We'll never have proof, unless we raid WotC's sales reports filing cabinet. The best we'll ever have is a compilation of bits of evidence, the preponderance of which, when taken as a whole, might well make an unassailable case. But one thing - like this Google thing - is not proof.

 

[billd91]

Certainly it's not proof. Makes for an interesting observation, though. I notice that searches for Paizo and Paizo Pathfinder are trending up.

 

[B.T.]

You know what else happened in 2004? The launch of World of Warcraft - which has a related kick that requires a whole lot less buy-in. Tackling that would have been a problem even if WotC marketing wasn't determined to annoy its players for the second new edition in a row.

I don't see D&D as being in competition with MMOs any more than books are in competition with movies. They fill a similar niche, but they are so different that they aren't "fighting" for players.

 

[Olgar Shiverstone]

Google search has lost market share to other sources (like Bing), so to say this is an absolute trend one needs to aggregate the same statistic across all search engines. It's possible the total number of searches on Google are declining because people are moving to other search engines and the net number of searches remains relatively static.

Frankly, I'd believe searches are declining, but there's a big difference between that and the demise of D&D ...

 

[Morrus]

I don't see D&D as being in competition with MMOs any more than books are in competition with movies. They fill a similar niche, but they are so different that they aren't "fighting" for players.

But books are very much in competition with movies. Especially in times of economic hardship, entertainment products are all in competition with each other for their share of the average person's budget. Games, books, movies, restaurants, pubs, the lot.

 

[Sonny]

Certainly it's not proof. Makes for an interesting observation, though. I notice that searches for Paizo and Paizo Pathfinder are trending up.

I wouldn't exactly say trending up means much for it, especially when you compare it to D&D. It's barely a blip on that chart.

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=dungeons and dragons, d&d, paizo, paizo pathfinder&cmpt=q

Though this should tell you more than anything that search volume != sales volume. Especially since Pathfinder outsells D&D.

 

[Sonny]

Yay! Double Post! =/