Proof D&D is in serious decline

But books are very much in competition with movies. Especially in times of economic hardship, entertainment products are all in competition with each other for their share of the average person's budget. Games, books, movies, restaurants, pubs, the lot.
Maybe I'm weird, then. There are times when I feel like seeing a movie, and there are times when I feel like reading a book. There are times when I've seen a movie and wanted to read the book it is based on. There are times when I've read a book and wanted to see the movie it is based on. There has never been a time when I have chosen between the two.
 

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Maybe I'm weird, then. There are times when I feel like seeing a movie, and there are times when I feel like reading a book. There are times when I've seen a movie and wanted to read the book it is based on. There are times when I've read a book and wanted to see the movie it is based on. There has never been a time when I have chosen between the two.

Then, my friend, you are a fortunate, fortunate man. You should count your lucky stars, because millions upon millions of people, such as myself, do have to decide how to spend their limited entertainment budget. Do I go to the pub, or do I buy that new RPG book? Do I go buy that PS3 game, or do I take my wife out to dinner? Do I go see that movie, or do I buy a couple of CDs?

I envy you. :)
 

Also, some activities, such and roleplaying games and MMOs, are a significant investment in time and mental space. People are very much likely to choose between World of Warcraft and Dungeons & Dragons when it comes to which time consuming social hobby they are going to invest themselves in. Particularly when the trappings are so similar.
 

Another thing to consider is that WotC is terms of new gaming products for D&D has pretty much stagnated. A lot of awareness for potential consumers of D&D comes from two places: book stores and friends who already play D&D. Go with me here. I'm talking about the immediate exposure of someone completely new to all things gaming etc, as these are the potential consumers who would be using Google to find out more about the game. Google would lead them to places like ENWorld and the main WotC website but these are more of a follow-up and not as high touch as the first two categories I've stated. Sure you could say that people Google things randomly all the time but there has to be a catalyst to cause theses non-gaming consumers to search the web for D&D in the first place.

Book stores, in my experience as a marketing professional, are the number one way that potential customers are becoming aware of the D&D brand, it jars their memory of it being referenced in popular culture and they can look at the books and look inside, and most importantly see the art which sparks the imagination and may cause them to buy the book or research it more online. (Never underestimate the power of art in marketing, especially with something so imagination driven like D&D.) The problem here is that since WotC has not put out any product lines of note lately many book stores I've been to and discussed with my gaming friends across the U.S. have seen their gaming section stagnate besides the regular flow of Pathfinder and few random rpg books here and there. Book stores see D&D as a joke right now, because the books began to sell so poorly. I asked a buying manager why they kept the few books they still had on the shelves at full price and he said they are just hoping someone comes in who needs an extra book for themselves or a friend. He said they have kept a small stock of the gaming aids, such as dice and dungeon tiles available but buying more 4th Edition books from WotC is out of the question, it's too much of a risk.

This leads me to WotC. I, personally am torn in two about the amount of time they are being allowed to develop D&DN. As a player and DM I want them to do a great job and bring D&D back to a hodge podge of fantasy goodness rather than such a focused design. At the same time as a player and DM (and this dips into the friends who play category) I am sitting in this void of no new D&D products (meaning D&DN) to speak of and thus I'm not interested as on the whole 4E either did or didn't do what my friends and I wanted it to do. Thus we are either playing 4th Edition D&D or we are not. We may be playing an older edition, but this hardly brings in google searches about D&D. We may introduce a new player to 4th Edition and that may generate some searches, but I think a majority (meaning 50.1%+) are not satisfied with 4th Edition D&D and are playing older editions which don't tend to generate searches or playing other systems entirely.

Note: I enjoyed 4th Edition for quite some time, but eventually it became to linear for me so I'm playing Castles and Crusades. But I'm sitting here waiting and waiting for D&DN because it will all always be considered D&D to me. ("Hey guys, want to play some D&D tonight?" When we are actually referring to Castles and Crusades or Pathfinder.)
 


The relative cost of entertainment is waaaay down compared to what it was 10 or 20 years ago. I remember my first (AD&D) PHB it cost 200 NOK. I can now buy the (4e PHB) for 130 NOK, and that's 20 years in which time wages has more than doubled. Relatively speaking, the price has gone down by about 70%.

It's the same thing with PC games and books. When it comes to entertainment, the only thing that has gone up in price is the cinema ticket (and the snack prices) and the bar tab.
 

I reject the premise. Even if we take Google search volume as a proxy for popularity--and I'm okay with that--those graphs don't show a game in decline!

Check out this graph, which shows 2007 to the present: http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=dungeons and dragons, d&d&date=1/2007 12m&cmpt=q

It's basically flat.

So what you've really proved is that D&D /used/ to be in serious decline, but it's been basically flat for the last 6 years. Not such a big deal.

edit: oops, the link I posted is for just 2007. Still, things have been basically flat for the last four or five years.
 
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