King of Old School
First Post
I think the important distinction here is between nuclear war and, to borrow a phrase from Crimson Tide, nuclear holocaust. The probability of a full nuclear exchange that would destroy civilization as we know it is remote, because we no longer have a situation where two big players are facing each other in a Mexican standoff and one of the players is dangerously willing to take a hit in order to "win" (i.e. the USSR). Most of the nuclear players today are more driven by pragmatism than ideology, even so-called Communist China, and pragmatists don't believe in pyrrhic victory. The ideologues amongst the nuclear nations (chiefly North Korea, but you can include India and Pakistan to an extent) simply don't possess the power to initiate a full-scale global holocaust. Certainly any nuclear war would be an environmental disaster, but we have environmental disasters on a disturbingly regular basis (Chernobyl, Exxon Valdez, Bhopal) and none of them has yet led to the collapse of civilization.tburdett said:Semantics. If two, or more, countries attack each other with multiple nuclear weapons you have a nuclear war.
The outcome of this would be a very significant environmental and social problem for the entire global population. It is also difficult, or maybe impossible, to know for certain that ANY nuclear exchange would be limited to the countries initially involved.
If India and Pakistan launch nuclear weapons at each other, that IS a nuclear war. What would China's response be? No one knows.
If a middle eastern country and Israel ever launch nuclear weapons at each other, that IS a nuclear war. Who else might get dragged into such a scenario? No one knows.
Is the scenario you describe mathematically possible? Certainly. As likely as nuclear holocaust was during the '60s-1989? No.
Actually, a number of people guessed that the assasination could potentially plunge Europe into a general war, which is why there was such a flurry of diplomacy immediately preceding hostilities. What they couldn't guess was how bloody and protracted the war would turn out to be, largely because they didn't understand the implications of modern military technology.The certainty that you express has no basis or foundation in reality. For example, who would ever have guessed that the assassination of Arch Duke Francis Ferdinand on 28th June 1914 would plunge the world into the first world war?
KoOS
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