WotC Ray Winninger Steps Back From WotC

Former leader of the D&D team Ray Winninger has announced his departure from WotC, having "accomplished the ambitious goals we set". Dan Rawson was announced the new head of D&D earlier this month, leading many to speculate about Winninger's departure.

"Sorry for the radio silence; I'm in the midst of a SORELY needed Long Rest. I have indeed left WotC, having accomplished the ambitious goals we set when I took over the D&D team.

Shepherding D&D was an honor and a privilege, but I'm looking forward to slowing down and getting back to a list of personal design projects. (Gamers, you haven't seen the last of me!) Most of all, I look forward to following D&D as a fan again.

Proud of the team I left behind; D&D is in very good hands: @JeremyECrawford, @ChrisPerkinsDnD, @DroidsForSale, @dtovar77, Liz Schuh, Kate Irwin, Trish Yochum, @aquelajames, @FWesSchneider, @MakenzieLaneDA, @amandahamon, Emi Tanji, Bree Heiss, @doctorcomics. @justicearman

@RPGRonLundeen, @BillBenham2, Rob Hawkey, Ben Petrisor, @Dan_Dillon_1, @EytanBernstein, Adrian Ng, Janica Carter, @chrislindsay, @TrystanFalcone, @mattchucole, Bob Jordan, @christulach, Natalie Egan, Hilary Ross, Carl Sibley. Thanks for being such great adventuring companions."

 

[Henadic Theologian]

Exec Producer was replaced btw

I was right about Rawson not replacing Ray, because a Vice President is a very different job then Executive Producer, we now know who the new Executive Producer is.

 

[Henadic Theologian]

The purchase of DnDBeyond and MtG only having a single major set (versus 2 in '21) are credited as the reasons for the decline.

Dominaria United is also not doing as well as previous sets. And alot of customers are angry at price increases when WotC is making record breaking amounts of money.

 

[Henadic Theologian]

They want D&D to be making half a billion dollars in 5 years. It's currently estimated to be at less than $150 million.

How would you triple (or more) revenue in 5 years without milking more out of every customer?

They want D&D to be their next Billion Dollar brand. I'm very curious how they plan to get there (I assume a cinematic universes is a big part of that).

I am going againat the grain and saying that paper Table Top is going no where, its fine, I've seen these "everything is going digital! Paper is Doomed!" panics before, most rescently with MtG.

They have access to tons of market data and they know a large portion of the market wants to keep paper D&D. Plus paper is an opportunity to sell collectibles.

So yeah they have big digital plans, but that doesn't mean they don't have big physical plans too (not just paper, but a return of novels, maybe Theme Parks and more).

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

Yeah, Dungeon Masterpiece did a piece on this (albeit with regard to the announced VTT) which touched on a lot of the same points.

That guy's entire brand is how everyone else is doing it wrong and is probably stupid. I'm not sure I would give him much credence.

 

[Henadic Theologian]

From Kyle Brink's linked in (why does it appear he's not on Twitter when he's been executive producer for 4 months!) Was Spelljammer Ray or Kyle's fault?

"Experience

Wizards of the Coast

1 year 9 months

Executive Producer, Dungeons & Dragons

Jul 2022 - Present4 months

Renton, Washington, United States

I lead the Dungeons & Dragons tabletop game studio, producing and publishing a game I've been playing since I was in grade school. Couldn't be happier or more in my element.

Director of Studio Operations

Feb 2021 - Jul 20221 year 6 months

Renton, Washington, United States"

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

Welp, get ready for history to repeat itself, because subscription services require a steady stream of content.

A reminder that ENWorld's confident predictions about the Definite Future of D&D tend to be right only about 10% of the time, historically. (I've been here since the 2E/3E transition.)

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

They want D&D to be making half a billion dollars in 5 years. It's currently estimated to be at less than $150 million.

How would you triple (or more) revenue in 5 years without milking more out of every customer?

Selling them a whole new set of core books is a good start.

 

[Haplo781]

Selling them a whole new set of core books is a good start.

That's good for a one-time sales bump per player at best.

If the current pace and pricing of releases continues as it has been for the last 10 years, they'll have to triple their consumer base or sell 3x as many products.

 

[Henadic Theologian]

D&D maker Wizards of the Coast and its RPG rivals are starting to look like Apple and Amazon

Tech executives are multi-classing into tabletop gaming.

www.dicebreaker.com

Some discussion of what going on with D&D & it's changing team.

 

[Parmandur]

They want D&D to be their next Billion Dollar brand. I'm very curious how they plan to get there (I assume a cinematic universes is a big part of that).

I am going againat the grain and saying that paper Table Top is going no where, its fine, I've seen these "everything is going digital! Paper is Doomed!" panics before, most rescently with MtG.

They have access to tons of market data and they know a large portion of the market wants to keep paper D&D. Plus paper is an opportunity to sell collectibles.

So yeah they have big digital plans, but that doesn't mean they don't have big physical plans too (not just paper, but a return of novels, maybe Theme Parks and more).

I honestly think a digital monetization future can be very stabilizing for the TTRPG: not relying on book churn is healthy for the hobby.

 

[Alzrius]

That's good for a one-time sales bump per player at best.

If the current pace and pricing of releases continues as it has been for the last 10 years, they'll have to triple their consumer base or sell 3x as many products.

Which they obviously can't do, so instead they're going to turn to other revenue streams a la licensing. Video games, a VTT with a lot of micro-transactions, and what they're probably hoping will become a cinematic universe are where D&D's future is, at least from a corporate standpoint.

None of which is a surprise; everything I wrote in the above paragraph is basically something that James Lowder said at a Gen Con seminar a few years back, and he was right.

 

[Parmandur]

From Kyle Brink's linked in (why does it appear he's not on Twitter when he's been executive producer for 4 months!) Was Spelljammer Ray or Kyle's fault?

"Experience

Wizards of the Coast

1 year 9 months

Executive Producer, Dungeons & Dragons

Jul 2022 - Present4 months

Renton, Washington, United States

I lead the Dungeons & Dragons tabletop game studio, producing and publishing a game I've been playing since I was in grade school. Couldn't be happier or more in my element.

Director of Studio Operations

Feb 2021 - Jul 20221 year 6 months

Renton, Washington, United States"

Well, well, it seems Winninger has actually been done for a few months and we didn't notice.

 

[Malmuria]

The thing is he is wrong.

That guy's entire brand is how everyone else is doing it wrong and is probably stupid. I'm not sure I would give him much credence.

These are some great arguments, but could you expand a bit on what aspects of the video are wrong?

Personally, though the author of the video is speculating and providing his opinion (things that every youtuber does because it drives engagement), there are some salient points

• wotc would like to make a closed ecosystem for customers, instead of having them cobble together a set of tools that work for them, which means producing content and selling it via beyond and the vtt
• an advantage of this model for wotc is getting players (and not just DMs) to purchase more things, perhaps in smaller transactions
• If 3rd party products don't work with that closed ecosystem (for either legal or technical reasons) they will find it increasingly difficult, and in certain cases impossible, to make and sell their products
• this closed ecosystem would solidify wotc's monopoly/dominance over the ttrpg hobby

The above is to some degree already the case, but it's easy to see how a new edition focused on digital products would exacerbate each situation. In every case these changes stand to make wotc more money. They are consistent with how wotc/hasbro has operated as a corporation and with how media corporations in general try to expand their revenue base.

 

[Zaukrie]

These are some great arguments, but could you expand a bit on what aspects of the video are wrong?

Personally, though the author of the video is speculating and providing his opinion (things that every youtuber does because it drives engagement), there are some salient points

• wotc would like to make a closed ecosystem for customers, instead of having them cobble together a set of tools that work for them, which means producing content and selling it via beyond and the vtt
• an advantage of this model for wotc is getting players (and not just DMs) to purchase more things, perhaps in smaller transactions
• If 3rd party products don't work with that closed ecosystem (for either legal or technical reasons) they will find it increasingly difficult, and in certain cases impossible, to make and sell their products
• this closed ecosystem would solidify wotc's monopoly/dominance over the ttrpg hobby

The above is to some degree already the case, but it's easy to see how a new edition focused on digital products would exacerbate each situation. In every case these changes stand to make wotc more money. They are consistent with how wotc/hasbro has operated as a corporation and with how media corporations in general try to expand their revenue base.

They've not once released a tool that didn't allow homebrew...... So just copy third party stuff you want into the new VTT. That's consistent with all their practices and history, but doesn't fit doom and gloom....

 

[Haplo781]

They've not once released a tool that didn't allow homebrew...... So just copy third party stuff you want into the new VTT. That's consistent with all their practices and history, but doesn't fit doom and gloom....

They've not once released a VTT, period. You're speculating based on what you're hoping will happen instead of looking at the facts on the ground.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

These are some great arguments, but could you expand a bit on what aspects of the video are wrong?

No, because I don't want to give bad faith YouTubers the clicks.

His entire schtick is that everyone -- including you and me -- are stupid.

It's his reflexive stance that everything is terrible, because it drives engagement. Given that it's what he's doing in all of his videos, I think it's fair to assume that many of these are bad faith arguments.

There's plenty of discussion going on here and elsewhere that are worth going into. But "Dungeon Masterpiece" (sure, bro) is not a place I look to for salient arguments.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

They've not once released a VTT, period. You're speculating based on what you're hoping will happen instead of looking at the facts on the ground.

The facts on the ground are that you can put homebrew stuff into D&D Beyond. There are no other facts on the ground about what WotC will or won't do; it's all speculation.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

Well, well, it seems Winninger has actually been done for a few months and we didn't notice.

Which also suggests that his departure isn't necessarily a sign of the apocalypse. I'd like to think we'd all notice if it was raining blood up in this joint.

 

[JEB]

The purchase of DnDBeyond and MtG only having a single major set (versus 2 in '21) are credited as the reasons for the decline.

Oof, that's going to rile up investors. There was some obvious skepticism of the DDB purchase at the last investor call.

 

[Parmandur]

Which also suggests that his departure isn't necessarily a sign of the apocalypse. I'd like to think we'd all notice if it was raining blood up in this joint.

He was definitely posting as a WotC insider after July, so it could be that he gave notice and trained his replacement, because he didn't want the job anymore. We just don't know anything.