Pathfinder 2E Release Day Second Edition Amazon Sales Rank

[darjr]

I think it'll happen. We'll look back and realize it will seem like an obvious next step. I'll bet the roots of whatever are already out there and have been for a while. It'll be the culmination of a lot of hard work and a lot of right moves but look like it swooped out of nowhere to storm the hobby. But that's easy to say about almost anything.

 

[The-Magic-Sword]

Honestly, I never viewed it as something that would happen at launch, this was always going to be a gradual expansion over years as 5e's new players become veterans, and some of those veterans develop a taste for character building / tactics / mechanical depth, or are introduced to the game by its current playerbase, thereby allowing them to be seduced. The game isn't a household name the way DND is, and 5e still has its cultural emphasis on rejecting a lot of what Pathfinder 2e is trying to accomplish.

 

[Retreater]

Honestly, I never viewed it as something that would happen at launch, this was always going to be a gradual expansion over years as 5e's new players become veterans, and some of those veterans develop a taste for character building / tactics / mechanical depth, or are introduced to the game by its current playerbase, thereby allowing them to be seduced. The game isn't a household name the way DND is, and 5e still has its cultural emphasis on rejecting a lot of what Pathfinder 2e is trying to accomplish.

But to numerous PF1 fans, to many gamers looking to try other systems that have more tactical depth and greater character creation options than 5e, it is still not catching on widely.
With the life expectancy of PF1 campaigns it would stand to reason many of those could have ended since the release of PF2. While some may have switched their next campaign to PF2, I would guess that based on the sales data we do have, the stats from VTTs, and the greater impact on the industry (few 3PPs), this indicates that there's not as much demand for PF2 as PF1.
It would be almost like if WotC released an edition of D&D few people adopted, so most players just kept playing their previous edition and other publishers kept releasing material based on that older edition.

 

[Justice and Rule]

But to numerous PF1 fans, to many gamers looking to try other systems that have more tactical depth and greater character creation options than 5e, it is still not catching on widely.
With the life expectancy of PF1 campaigns it would stand to reason many of those could have ended since the release of PF2. While some may have switched their next campaign to PF2, I would guess that based on the sales data we do have, the stats from VTTs, and the greater impact on the industry (few 3PPs), this indicates that there's not as much demand for PF2 as PF1.
It would be almost like if WotC released an edition of D&D few people adopted, so most players just kept playing their previous edition and other publishers kept releasing material based on that older edition.

That's a cute comparison, but PF1 players arguably matter less than 5E players. Hell, the graph a few pages back kind of makes it clear that most people are coming from outside of Paizo rather than being old fans, which makes sense: at this point, PF1 has hundreds of books of support, and I'm sure a good portion of people who own them (who already sat out one system change) likely don't want to change over again. I mean, how many of those PF1 players also sat out 5E as well? This whole line of argumentation feels like a forced attempt to try and make an issue where there really isn't one.

 

[The-Magic-Sword]

But to numerous PF1 fans, to many gamers looking to try other systems that have more tactical depth and greater character creation options than 5e, it is still not catching on widely.
With the life expectancy of PF1 campaigns it would stand to reason many of those could have ended since the release of PF2. While some may have switched their next campaign to PF2, I would guess that based on the sales data we do have, the stats from VTTs, and the greater impact on the industry (few 3PPs), this indicates that there's not as much demand for PF2 as PF1.
It would be almost like if WotC released an edition of D&D few people adopted, so most players just kept playing their previous edition and other publishers kept releasing material based on that older edition.

It does seem to be catching on though, there's a new post pretty much every day from someone making the switch over on the sub, which is growing at a decent tick in its own right. Its not going to get everyone, obviously, but I don't think its a flop by any means, a lot of holdouts seem to be gradually breaking down (the 'I like pf1e but had an issue with something in pf2e I perceived, even though I'm still target demo for it preference-wise crowd.') I'm partially thinking of what like, year 3, or year 4 looks like, more than now. It'll be after the pf1e holdouts not only have gone longer without official content, but also see the game make these massive strides in options. It'll be after more 5e players have moved over, bringing their groups with them and making it more of a presence in traditionally 5e circles, which might be a tipping point not in terms of 'beating' 5e in raw numbers, which is unlikely but in terms of it taking a bigger bite out of the community, especially the online 'power user' demographic.

 

[Aldarc]

Sometimes the conversion to a new system for a group takes awhile due to wrapping up campaigns. Case in point, my old group in Berkeley took about 1.5 years to switch from our PF1 Rise of the Runelords campaign to 5e D&D because we were still playing that AP. I would love a chance to play PF2, but I generally (1) play exclusively with friends, (2) COVID, (3) don't do online play, and (4) PF2 may not be the appropriate/enjoyable game for the group in comparison to other available ones. Also, I'm living now in Austria, so there is the additional hurdle of finding a group that would prefer RPing in English.

 

[fearsomepirate]

It does seem to be catching on though, there's a new post pretty much every day from someone making the switch over on the sub, which is growing at a decent tick in its own right. Its not going to get everyone, obviously, but I don't think its a flop by any means, a lot of holdouts seem to be gradually breaking down (the 'I like pf1e but had an issue with something in pf2e I perceived, even though I'm still target demo for it preference-wise crowd.') I'm partially thinking of what like, year 3, or year 4 looks like, more than now. It'll be after the pf1e holdouts not only have gone longer without official content, but also see the game make these massive strides in options. It'll be after more 5e players have moved over, bringing their groups with them and making it more of a presence in traditionally 5e circles, which might be a tipping point not in terms of 'beating' 5e in raw numbers, which is unlikely but in terms of it taking a bigger bite out of the community, especially the online 'power user' demographic.

Worth remembering that D&D is so dominant in its own market that getting 10% of the TTRPG market is enough to make you a very comfortable #2.

Here's a really critical thing to remember about hobby markets: most users are casual users. We can be talking about model trains, video games, TTRPGs, CCGs, or fly fishing. Doesn't matter. Most users are casual users. As soon as you start talking about the person who does X for years and really wants to dive deep into skill/complexity, you're talking about somebody who represents, let's be generous, maybe 1% to 5% of customers. Somebody who cares enough about a product to post online about it is in a tiny sliver of customers, so talk on forums or whatever is extremely non-representative of the customer base.

Most people play for a while and quit. Some people continue playing for a long time. Only a tiny, tiny number of people become true hobbyists, continually plumbing the depths of what the hobby has to offer. These people are a paradox: they spend high quantities of money, allowing marginal products to succeed, but they are extremely tiny in number, and so do not drive larger trends. In concrete terms, waiting for "deep crunch systems" to pass some sort of tipping point and become a serious competitor to the mass market phenomenon is like waiting for ARMA to catch up to Call of Duty. Your typical customer is gone after a few years, usually less than that, and doing something else completely, not looking to go deeper.

 

[TheSword]

I think a big difference between the 1st edition release and the 2nd edition are the campaigns. Which arguably Paizo made its name off the back of.

When PF had released they had completed the hugely successful Shackled City, Age of Worms and Savage Tides. Campaigns that set the standard and blew other adventure writers out of the water (including D&D).

They followed that up with Rise of the Runelords and Curse of the Crimson Throne. Two more amazing campaigns better than the previous 3 if it’s possible to believe. Lots of new players pick a campaign first and then we’re motivated to learn PF in order to play it.

On the flip side, look at 2nd edition. A couple of years of lackluster APs at the end of 1st edition. Followed up by a flawed starting AP in Ashes; some very bizarre editorial choices in Agents of Edgewatch; and a Greatest Showman spinoff in Extinction Curse. None of which have gained the kind of acclaim their early work received.

I think this must be causing Paizo problems.

 

[Retreater]

On the flip side, look at 2nd edition. A couple of years of lackluster APs at the end of 1st edition. Followed up by a flawed starting AP in Ashes; some very bizarre editorial choices in Agents of Edgewatch; and a Greatest Showman spinoff in Extinction Curse. None of which have gained the kind of acclaim their early work received.

I think this must be causing Paizo problems.

I think 3.0 and PF1 had very strong launch titles in their adventure department. 4e's was atrocious (actually, most of the printed adventures for that were pretty bad). With the exception of the starter set adventure, 5e's first few adventures were regarded as middling at best.
PF2 has been out a year and a half, right? At roughly the same point in 5e's lifecycle we got Curse of Strahd. Considering adventures are supposed to be Paizo's strong suit, this is a big letdown.
They could take a page out of WotC's playbook. Instead of making weird adventures that seem to alienate fans, try updating, expanding, and sequel-izing your beloved IP? Take something PF1 fans loved and tell them, "you want to see what happens after X Adventure Path? Update to PF2 and see what the next chapter of gaming looks like."

 

[JmanTheDM]

one mans opinion is does not data make. and yet...

Holy crow, is the Extinction Curse AP, THE ONE that excites me more than... well, just about any "mega" module since I got Rappan Athuk and the 2-part Hoard and Rise books for 5e (because new edition). Like, this just screams fun to me.

so bottom line, we all come at this with different expectations and needs for our adventures. where one group feels a certain AP misses the mark others go crazy for it. Since I have no experience with 1e AP's and know nothing about them I can't judge - but I really like the diversity in play styles, experimentation, and genre's that are being explored with what has been released and announced so far.

I mean, come on, a 3-part martial arts tournament? how is that NOT like the coolest thing for a high-level campaign?

Cheers,

J.