Pathfinder 2E Release Day Second Edition Amazon Sales Rank

[DaveMage]

Most posts by Lisa Stevens on their forums will be about how Covid-19 has impacted their work flow, shipping, and such. There is a posting in January, though that's only a month later than the link Dave posted.

I mean, it's only been 4.5 months since that post on 12/31, and I hardly would expect a monthly update.

That said, however, if (in person) Gen Con gets canceled (which I think is likely), we won't have a visual barometer for the game for a while. Also, the Advanced Player's Guide for PF2 is a Gen Con release so it would suck for them (and many others, I'm sure) if in-person Gen Con doesn't happen.

 

[Porridge]

The Amazon sales rankings over the past couple weeks suggest relatively good news. Both 5e and PF2 seem to have settled into a new regime, and are both doing significantly better now than they were during the horrendous mid-March to mid-April period following the coronavirus shut down.

They're still lower than where they were before the coronavirus hit, which seems inevitable given the general economic downturn. But if we take 5e sales to be an indicator of how TTRPG sales are doing in general (which seems reasonable), then the fiscal viability of TTRPG companies looks considerably rosier than it did a month ago.

(Obligatory link to source: Amazon sales estimator.)

 

[Parmandur]

The Amazon sales rankings over the past couple weeks suggest relatively good news. Both 5e and PF2 seem to have settled into a new regime, and are both doing significantly better now than they were during the horrendous mid-March to mid-April period following the coronavirus shut down.

They're still lower than where they were before the coronavirus hit, which seems inevitable given the general economic downturn. But if we take 5e sales to be an indicator of how TTRPG sales are doing in general (which seems reasonable), then the fiscal viability of TTRPG companies looks considerably rosier than it did a month ago.

(Obligatory link to source: Amazon sales estimator.)

Yeah, the hobby seems to be doing well in this situation: all the groundwork for long-distance play online has really paid off...

 

[gss000]

Yeah, the hobby seems to be doing well in this situation: all the groundwork for long-distance play online has really paid off...

I don't think that is what we are seeing. I think we saw a dip because of the pandemic, but the recent bump I bet reflects the built up demand that was released after shelter in place orders started being lifted and stores could order and replenish stock. The numbers are droppimg again back toward what they were before stores started closing. The recent bump is not a long lasting one.

I think the hobby was better able to handle the pandemic and closing of stores and distributors, but maybe a spike over a week doesn't erase the recent damage or the Amazon trend for Paizo.

 

[darjr]

Eh. Much higher than it’s been. Still BY FAR the second highest RPG on Amazon. Some may say that doesn’t mean much but is it possible that it might be further ahead of number three than D&D is of it. Which actually makes me kinda sad. I wish the broader market for RPGs did better. I know they are doing better than ever but still.

 

[Porridge]

I don't think that is what we are seeing. I think we saw a dip because of the pandemic, but the recent bump I bet reflects the built up demand that was released after shelter in place orders started being lifted and stores could order and replenish stock. The numbers are droppimg again back toward what they were before stores started closing. The recent bump is not a long lasting one.

I worry that you may have misunderstood what I was saying. Just to get clear about the facts on the ground: there hasn't been a bump above how 5e and PF2 were doing before the pandemic hit in mid-March. There's just been a substantial improvement from how thing were from during the terrible mid-March to end-of-April stretch, an improvement that's looked pretty stable over the last two weeks. But things are still worse than they were before the pandemic hit.

Spoiler: In more quantitative terms:

• 1/1-3/13: 5e generally bounces around in the 20-70 range (averaging about 45).
• 3/14-5/4: 5e craters, generally bouncing around in the 120-300 range (averaging about 210), though a big sale at the end of April drives it briefly into the 20s.
• 5/5-5/18: 5e generally bounces around in the 90-160 range (averaging about 125).

And you see a similar pattern for PF2:

• 1/1-3/13: PF2 generally bounces around in the 2000-6000 range (averaging about 4000).
• 3/14-5/4: PF2 craters, generally bouncing around in the 5000-10000 range (averaging about 7500).
• 5/5-5/18: PF2 generally bounces around in the 2500-4500 range (averaging about 3500).

(Well, I guess PF2 has been pretty much doing about as well as it was before the pandemic hit. That may be due to noise. In any case, PF2 certainly hasn't been doing noticeably better than it was before the pandemic hit.)

 

[zztong]

Looking at Google Trends on the assumption that there may be some vague relation between searches and sales...

12 Month...

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F026q9,%2Fm%2F04dzk1_

There's a slight decrease in searches for Pathfinder (non version specific) while D&D (not version specific) has a slight increase during the pandemic months. Those changes many not be significant.

I do note Trends seems to be doing a better job of isolating Pathfinder the game from Pathfinder the automobile than it had been doing in previous years.

5 Year...

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F026q9,%2Fm%2F04dzk1_

If you look at a longer-term view, from August 2019 to present there's also a slight decrease, probably insignificant. Peak interest appears to have been Sep/Oct 2018.

Looking into the query details, note that "mesmerist" and "kineticist" are searches #2 and #5, then "vigilante", "unchained monk" are searches #6 and #7. I may be wrong, but I think these are only in PF1.

I also note that "the trove pathfinder" is #3. The Trove, being a source of PDFs, could be folks who just want a PDF to go with a book they have already purchased, but it can be people who are trying to avoid a purchase, or people looking to find products that are otherwise unavailable such as a very old module.

...

 

[Porridge]

Looking at Google Trends on the assumption that there may be some vague relation between searches and sales...

12 Month...

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F026q9,%2Fm%2F04dzk1_

There's a slight decrease in searches for Pathfinder (non version specific) while D&D (not version specific) has a slight increase during the pandemic months. Those changes many not be significant.

I do note Trends seems to be doing a better job of isolating Pathfinder the game from Pathfinder the automobile than it had been doing in previous years.

5 Year...

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F026q9,%2Fm%2F04dzk1_

If you look at a longer-term view, from August 2019 to present there's also a slight decrease, probably insignificant. Peak interest appears to have been Sep/Oct 2018.

Looking into the query details, note that "mesmerist" and "kineticist" are searches #2 and #5, then "vigilante", "unchained monk" are searches #6 and #7. I may be wrong, but I think these are only in PF1.

I also note that "the trove pathfinder" is #3. The Trove, being a source of PDFs, could be folks who just want a PDF to go with a book they have already purchased, but it can be people who are trying to avoid a purchase, or people looking to find products that are otherwise unavailable such as a very old module.

...

Very cool!

The steady increase in D&D searches over the past 5 years is especially impressive; they've almost quadrupled.

Looking into the query details, note that "mesmerist" and "kineticist" are searches #2 and #5, then "vigilante", "unchained monk" are searches #6 and #7. I may be wrong, but I think these are only in PF1.

I think that's an artifact of the fact that you're looking at query details over the past 5 years. (I also think you were looking at the highest ranked "rising" search terms, not the highest ranked "top" search terms.) If you focus on the past 12 months (the first link you provided above), the highest ranked "top" queries are:

1. "pathfinder"
2. "pathfinder 2e"
3. "pathfinder spells"
4. "pathfinder feats"
5. "pathfinder armor"

(And the highest ranked "rising" queries are:

1. "pathfinder heirloom" [An unrelated search]
2. "pathfinder 2e character builder"
3. "pathfinder wrath of the righteous kickstarter"
4. "pathfinder 2e"
5. "pathfinder 2e srd")

 

[zztong]

I think that's an artifact of the fact that you're looking at query details over the past 5 years.

Oh, oh. You're correct. Thanks for catching that. Sorry for the error.

 

[darjr]

Found out today that Amazon has an Amazon’s Choice entry for the players handbook and starter set, from a third party reseller that includes dice and other things. Looks like it’s been swiping top spot results in searches for D&D and Players Handbook. I wonder if they did the same for PF2? Anybody see it?