Pathfinder 2E Release Day Second Edition Amazon Sales Rank

[Aldarc]

Right, you don't understand confirmation bias.

That's certainly confirmation bias.

 

[BryonD]

That's certainly confirmation bias.

Ok, that's funny. (seriously that is well played)

 

[Umbran]

Mod Note:

If you need an extended discussion of confirmation bias and attacking people, it is probably time to disengage.

 

[BryonD]

In an effort to get back on track, I'll restate what I do think. This is purely recycle from 23 hours ago, but everything seems to be tangents since then. Maybe there is more to discuss here and maybe this is the end of the conversation until more information comes along.
But that said:
-------------------------

I have no idea what Paizo's standard of "success" is. I've never claimed to. I've already directly commented on Paizo being well diversified and probably doing just fine.
None of that means that PF2E has moved the needle on their long term position in the Fantasy TTRPG market.
I claim that PF was not doing well enough so they need to move the needle.
I claim that developing a PF2E costs a fair amount and needs to move the needle to justify it.
I claim that Paizo and the PF brand could move the needle.
PF was in the exact same #2 place. SF is the game that bumped it, and we have no reason to think that PF declined at that time, it seems reasonable to presume that PF was till at roughly the same levels and SF was just above that. (No doubt some underlying long term slide continued).
It is only the announcement of PF2E that triggered the crash of PF.
But as of right now it is reasonable to claim that PF might be being PLAYED more than PF2E. That may not be true. But it doesn't have to be, because it is "close enough" that it is reasonable to claim.
That is not moving the needle.

I fully expect PF2E to hang on to #2 for the immediate future. I don't know of anything likely to knock it off. As has been pointed out numerous times, everything not 5E is so far back that is becomes a mash.
Based on the fact that PF's diminished sales were still handily good enough for #2, it is entirely possible it would still be limping along at an unacceptable but "solid" #2 today had PF2E never been announced. This is, of course, unknowable.

But PF2E has not moved the needle looks like a really reasonable conclusion.

 

[billd91]

I still think this is the best way that Paizo can diversify easily. Work with WotC to produce a physical DUNGEON and DRAGON again. I'd buy into that at once.

That's not happening. The model is dying and there's far too much lost momentum to try to jump back in.

 

[Jaeger]

I think you have hit upon something important here. What matters or at least what should matter to Paizo is how their sales look...
...Now if Paizo actually thought they would take the number 1 sales spot back that is a much bigger problem.

I don't think anyone at Pazio was so much as dreaming of even getting close to 5e.

But I do think that it is reasonable to assume they were hoping to reverse the steady decline that PF1 was having by revitalizing their fanbase with an exiting new edition.

Pulling PF1 groups back into the fold who had left for 5e or other games. And giving them a healthy bump for an overall different sales trajectory.

Given the data that we have; I think that it is a reasonable educated guess to say that PF2 probably failed to do that.

What that will mean for Pazio and PF2's ultimate future 3-5 years from now?

Who Knows.

IME the newbies are pretty unaware of any game but 5e D&D, but many are not averse to trying out other games if introduced to them - eg I got several newbies to play and enjoy Mini Six RPG, based on the WEG D6 System.

I'll totally buy this.

I just think that due to the 5e juggernaut effect - that newbies have a harder time hearing about non-D&D/d20 games than they would have in say the 90's when non-D&D based RPG's had a bit more presence.

 

[BryonD]

That's not happening. The model is dying and there's far too much lost momentum to try to jump back in.

I hate this post.
It ain't wrong.
But I hate it.

 

[Bravesteel25]

That's not happening. The model is dying and there's far too much lost momentum to try to jump back in.

I think Paizo (or WOTC) could do it on more of a print to order and then print-on-demand type of structure after the initial run of the issue. I think the problem is more that magazine publishers haven’t changed how they do things in a long time, much like book publishers.

 

[Jester David]

At about 54:44 in Nerdarchy talking to Nord Games Megan Roy talk about Pathfinder 2e. They talk about not being able to make enough with their 1e conversions and how they are looking at 2e but are not at all sure it would be worth it. Also they talk about how the 3rd parties were surprised with the 2e announcement. Which I didn’t think was the case, was it? Was 2e a surprise to third parties?

There was quite a few big PF1 3rd Party Kickstarters launched shortly after the announcement of the playtest, when PF2 content was largely DOA. Like Kobold Press' Midgard setting Kickstarter.

It does sound like Paizo didn't contact anyone prior and let them know to hold off on making compatible products ahead of time, which seems like a classy thing to do. Especially as they got burned by the same thing.

 

[Parmandur]

There was quite a few big PF1 3rd Party Kickstarters launched shortly after the announcement of the playtest, when PF2 content was largely DOA. Like Kobold Press' Midgard setting Kickstarter.

It does sound like Paizo didn't contact anyone prior and let them know to hold off on making compatible products ahead of time, which seems like a classy thing to do. Especially as they got burned by the same thing.

Ooof, less than ideal. Goes some ways to explain the relative dearth if PF2E material, which particularly doesn't benefit from compatibly with an old and popular edition (still a lot of 3.x games on those VTT).