Sonofapreacherman said:
A cloak of resistance at 2nd level? Seems strange to me that magic items would be parceled out so easily, but I did grab an iconic character, so I guess that was my fault.
I'm also not checking things thoroughly, myself, other than the math - given the base assumptions. The only thing that annoyed me was that,
given the base assumptions, the math was wrong. However, below, you will find my outlined attempt with MY base assumptions, instead of whatever




y'all toss out up there

. <-- please note smiley
As for Fortitute saves, hobgoblins advance as character class. As I understand it, you shouldn't be adding in their humanoid Fortitute bonus as well.
Actually, for some reason I was thinking they were a 2HD race. My bad on that. So, here's MY base assumptions, and the resulting math:
Twink 1st level Human Wizard:
HP 5 (d4 max, +1 CON)
Spell DC 15 (+1 spell level, +4 INT)
Initiative +1 (+1 DEX)
Spear 1d8-1 (x3 crit) (-1 STR)
Hobgoblin Fighter-2
HP 13 (2d10 avg, +1 CON per HD)
Fort +4 (+3 class, +1 CON)
Will +0 (+0 class, +0 WIS)
Initiative +1 (+1 DEX) (Note: initiative tie, hobgoblin wins, DEX 13)
Longsword 1d8+1 (+1 STR)
For "fairness", we will assume that neither the wizard nor the hobgoblins has taken Improved Initiative, and that the hobgoblins are 20 ft away from the wizard at the start of the round. If the hobgoblins are within striking distance, the wizard is dead regardless; if the hobgoblins are too far away, they'll just use javelins.
1. Roll initiative. Wizard has a 47.5% chance of success.
- Failure: Wizard dies.
- Success: Go to step 2.
2. Wizard casts spell. We will assume he is 10-30 ft away.
3. Hobgoblin 1 rolls save: 70% chance of succumbing.
- Does not succumb: Wizard dies.
- Succumbs: Go to step 4.
4. Hobgoblin 2 rolls save: 70% chance of failure.
- Does not succumb: Wizard dies.
- Succumbs: Go to step 5.
5. Wizard
coup de graces Hobgoblin 1. 73.75% chance of death.
- If Hobgoblin does not die, Wizard dies.
- If Hobgoblin dies, go to step 6.
6. Wizard
coup de graces Hobgoblin 2. 73.75% chance of death.
- If Hobgoblin does not die, Wizard dies.
- If Hobgoblin dies, WIZARD WINS.
Total chance of success: 12.7%
Chance of meaty death: 87.3%
I STILL say that the wizard deserves the XP - that's a damned risky gamble, and pulling it off is equivalent to the DM saying, "Aw right, now, I'm gonna roll this here 1d8, and iffen it comes up a ONE, you gets some XP... an' iffen it DON'T, you die."