Sonofapreacherman's twink wizard vs hobgob's:
Str 10, Dex 14, Con 12, Int 15, Wis 13, Cha 8
HP: 5
Spell DC: 13 (15 for enchantment only)
Initiative +6 (+2 DEX, +4 improved initiative)
Feats: improved initiative, focus: enchantment
Spear 1d8+0
A few comments: This character is twinked pretty well for casting sleep or charm at the beginning of combat. He's twinked pretty rotten for being a wizard, however, and at higher levels, he's really going to feel the bite of the suck vampire. He's also not well designed for being part of a team, or for fighting reach creatures in team situations, where going first = AoO. In the campaign I'm currently running, against the creatures the players have faced thus far, this "twink" would already be dead. I'll humor you, though, and let you play a character designed only for this one encounter.
Hobgoblin Fighter-2
HP 13 (2d10 avg, +1 CON per HD)
Fort +4 (+3 class, +1 CON)
Will +0 (+0 class, +0 WIS)
Initiative +5 (+1 DEX, +4 improved initiative, weapon focus)
(Note: initiative tie, hobgoblin loses, DEX 13)
Longsword 1d8+1 (+1 STR)
For "fairness", we will assume that neither the wizard nor the hobgoblins has taken Improved Initiative, and that the hobgoblins are 20 ft away from the wizard at the start of the round. If the hobgoblins are within striking distance, the wizard is dead regardless; if the hobgoblins are too far away, they'll just use javelins (or charge, or die, etc.).
1. Roll initiative. Wizard has a 57.25% chance of success.
- Failure: Wizard dies.*
- Success: Go to step 2.
2. Wizard casts spell. We will assume he is 10-30 ft away.
3. Hobgoblin 1 rolls save: 70% chance of succumbing.
- Does not succumb: Wizard dies.*
- Succumbs: Go to step 4.
4. Hobgoblin 2 rolls save: 70% chance of failure.
- Does not succumb: Wizard dies.*
- Succumbs: Go to step 5.
5. Wizard coup de graces Hobgoblin 1. 83.75% chance of death.
- If Hobgoblin does not die, Wizard dies.*
- If Hobgoblin dies, go to step 6.
6. Wizard coup de graces Hobgoblin 2. 83.75% chance of death.
- If Hobgoblin does not die, Wizard dies.*
- If Hobgoblin dies, WIZARD WINS.
Total chance of success: 19.76%
Chance of meaty death: 80.24%
We're still good on XP, here. Also note that you have sacrificed your general Spell DC in return for initiative, which is arguably not that important to a spell caster except in specialized situations... and in that specialized situation, you've only improved your chance of success by x1.5... and it's STILL way too risky.
* If a round ends with the hobgoblins adjacent to the wizard, they will get their attacks, PLUS attacks of opportunity the next round, with ONE attack doing sufficient damage, on average, to kill the wizard.
Sonofapreacherman said:
Twink is a human, so rather than choosing silly feats (to be fair as you say) he will choose feats that actually make sense, of which Improved Initiative is definitely one and Spell Focus (enchantment) is definitely another.
Note: spell focus (enchantment) is a nice choice for this single encounter. For higher levels, and other encounters, it's a pretty rotten choice. Improved initiative is useful if you are by yourself, otherwise, for wizards, it's generally better to go with something like defensive casting. And if you'd stopped focusing on the initiative so much, you wouldn't have had to take spell focus just to get the same spell DC - you could have gotten a higher DC, in fact. Since the spell DC counts twice in your chances and initiative only counts once, this was a poor choice.
The important detail to note here is that it *makes sense* for a wizard to take Improved Initiative. Twink also took shield as one of his 1st level spells.
An excellent choice. Since it only lasts for one minute, when will he cast it? Unless you are referring to your ambush example, which, as mentioned, is reduced EL.
For the record as well, wizards are not proficient with short spears, but let's say Twink carries one strictly for the purposes of making a coup de grace. If you disagree, then we can redo this whole example with a sorcerer, switching 15 Int for 15 Cha.
That was my intent.
Let's see now, the standard feat for a hobgoblin is Alertness but these 2nd level fighter hobgoblins also get a 1st and 2nd level fighter bonus feat. You could give them Improved Initiative as one of those feats, but to my way of thinking, fighters usually take much more offensive feats (Weapon Focus, Power Attack, Great Cleave). Still, the option is there. You would be tweaking out your *standard hobgoblins* specifically to resist my *tailored version* of Twink, but it's possible.
No more so than your "cast first and get hit by a couple of AoOs" wizard is
. And really, for fighters, going first can mean the difference between cleaving two orcs, or death. I'm not sure why you think taking it is silly - for a low level fighter on the front line, it's often the only difference between life and death.
Let's see now, you placed the range at 20 feet?
Poppycock!
Again, Twink is not stupid. His sleep spell has a range pf 110 feet at 1st level, so he is going to take advantage of that distance and cast at 100 ft.
Ah, so Twink is the one planning when and where the encounter will happen? Ambush, ECL -2. Otherwise, Twink has little choice in whether or not to "take advantage of that distance".
If the hobgoblins were planning when and where the encounter happened (Alertness, remember? Does your Twink have Hide?), it would be 5 ft. And even if you won initiative, it wouldn't matter. Start to cast, get hit once or twice, DIE.
If the hobgoblins *are* put to sleep by the spell, then it's a cakewalk for Twink. He can inflict an average minimum damage of 13 during a coup de grace with his shortspear. End of story. They don't even need to make their Fortitude saving throws and Twink will stab each hobgoblin twice for good measure.
Your chances of doing average damage or more is 50%. Your chances of doing it TWICE are only 25%. Your only hope is to do sufficient damage that their fortitude save sucks.
Now, keeping all of those factors in mind, what are the new chances of survival?
See above. Roughly 1 in 5, still pretty crappy.
