Sonofapreacherman said:
Oh my. I can see the mutual admiration society between Anubis and Seasong has already begun!
I am sorry if you feel we are picking on you. It is the burden of a minority opinion, whether wrong OR right. I think you're mostly wrong, but then, I would

. And we were in disagreement until you came along. Thank you for helping us... find each other.
First, a few difficulties:
You keep speaking of attacks of opportunity like they happen all the time. Once again, see the above 5-foot step rule. This will negate attacks of opportunity in most cases.
You are correct. This does not significantly alter your chance of surviving a fight with 1-2 awake hobgoblins after your spells run out, but it is true that you might possibly survive, and that spell casting with 5 ft steps will prevent AoOs during the first rounds when you HAVE spells.
As per shield, it will be cast any time the wizard wins Initiative (ambush or no). Like I said, get those defensive spells off first. It’s right there in my example, so I’m not sure why you’re asking.
I'll get back to this. Suffice it to say here that... sometimes I agree with you, and sometimes I disagree. In the scenario you propose, I think
shield is a poor choice (see further below).
You say an ambush is worth less ECL? Well if you had said that sooner, I would have agreed immediately. Remember, this debate is predicated on 2400XP being too much for a single arcane spellcaster defeating two 2nd fighter hobgoblins.
It's been said elsewhere. I was talking about a typical situation. An ambush is not a typical situation; neither is starting at 100 ft. Either one would provide a reduced EL, just like it would provide a reduced CR in the core rules. This is common sense.
However, after playing it out, I think it might,
at worst be a -1 EL. Those hobgoblins are damned hard to beat.
My chances of doing average damage twice is ½ that of doing it the first time?
No. You have a 50% chance of doing it the first time, and a 50% chance of doing it the second time. You only have a 25% chance of doing it twice in a row, and if even one wakes up, you are most likely hosed.
This wizard is tweaked for charming and mind control.
No he isn't. He's not optimized at all. Granted, neither was my original Twink

. But you
dropped your INT score, and for a wizard, that's like cutting off his legs, particularly for a save-or-sleep Twink.
For example, if I drop your DEX and WIS to 10, and raise INT to 18, he loses 0.5% chance of success in
this one situation (note: that moves him from 19.7% to 19.2%), but gains an overall +2 to spell DC, which will help him in more general situations. Furthermore, even for this one situation, I can twink his butt out way more than you have, using a high INT and STR. An optimized
sleep +
coup de grace build would look like this:
STR 14, DEX 10, CON 8, INT 18, WIS 8, CHA 8
Wizard: Specialist, enchantment (opposed: conjuration)
Feats: Improved Initiative*, Spell Focus (Enchantment)
Spells: Shield, Sleep (INT bonus), Sleep (specialist)
Spear 1d8+2 (x3)
* Note: I have rethunk my analysis of the wizard and improved initiative, and gone through the numbers, and it DOES help a wizard who is by himself a massive amount... enough to be considered a "must have" if the wizard is likely to be by himself. A smart wizard, of course, will never ever ever be by himself, but Twink's already there, so we might as well give him the benefit of the doubt.
Chance of success at 10-30 ft: 24.4%
That's a +5% gain over your stats. Do you still think DEX is important to a wizard?
That's as high as I can make it go. I can't pump STR any more, and since I already
coup de grace 151 times out of 160, any further bonuses to damage are negligible compared to the loss of DEX.
I went with your feats because for an enchanter specialist who expects to be alone, they are invaluable

.
You'll notice that I targetted the % effects that had the highest impact on his final chances; Improved Initiative, the damage roll on the spear, and the Spell DC. While initiative
does impact the overall chances, a +2 or +4 to DEX is a marginal impact compared to the benefit gained from +2 or +4 to STR or INT.
Now, with that out of the way, he
still has a 3 in 4 chance of being meat, under my original scenario and tactics.
Now, your proposed scenario and tactics:
1. Start at 100 ft.
2. Twink's plan: win initiative, cast shield, cast sleep, OR lose initiative, cast sleep.
3. Hobgoblin's plan: Spread out to avoid wizard group shots*. Kill wizard.
We will use your Twink to save time arguing

. However, we will make one change to him: make him an enchanter specialist, so that he has one extra
sleep spell. You'll see why soon enough.
* Yeah, I know you might argue this with me; how do they know he's going to use area effect spells? My answer is thus: he's a wizard. Even if they don't know about sleep, spreading out reduces the impact of many, many spells such as magic missile and fireball.
Note: Another good reason for 30 ft is because we can calculate the overall probability a LOT easier. At 100 ft, it becomes a very, very complex situation.
1. Twink attempts to win Initiative: 52.5% chance of success.
If he wins Initiative:
2. Casts
shield.
3. Hobgoblin 1 moves 120 ft to be on opposite side of Twink.
4. Twink gets an AoO, but has no weapon at hand to use (hands must be free to cast). Even if he did, he has a negligible chance of critting and killing the hobgoblin.
5. Hobgoblin 1 does not get an attack.
6. Hobgoblin 2 moves 30 ft, then throws a javelin. At 70 ft, he has a -4 to his attack.
- Attack -2 vs AC 19
- 1.66% chance of killing Twink outright.
- 3.33% chance of doing 4 hp or less.
7. Twink steps 5 ft towards HG 2. No AoO.
8.
- As a free action, Twink changes the
shield's direction to HG1.
- Twink casts
sleep on HG 1.
9. HG1 makes a Will save against DC 15: 70% chance of succumbing.
10.
- If HG1 does not succumb, he steps 5 ft to Twink. No AoO.
- - Attack +3 vs AC 19
- - 12.5% chance of killing Twink outright.
- - 12.5% chance of doing 4 hp or less.
11. HG2 moves 30 ft closer (40 ft) and readies an attack...
If HG1 succumbed, HG2 will throw his javelin at HG1 this round (having seen the shield in action), and take the -4 to do stunning damage (+4 prone, +4 pinned/not moving, -2 range) for a total chance to hit of +4 vs AC 14 (50% chance of waking HG1). He will then continue to stay at distance.
If HG1 did not succumb, HG2 will throw his javelin at Twink, and maintain his distance. Note that Twink is no longer protected by the
shield against HG2.
Twink has one
sleep spell left. If HG1 did not succumb, or HG2 succeeded in waking HG1 up, he should save it until they are both together, and in the meantime, run. If HG1 did succumb and HG2 failed to wake him (net 35% chance of that succession of events), he can try to cast
sleep on HG2 and pray.
These hobgoblins were not tweaked out (if they were, I'd have gone with some throwing feats for HG2).
Total chance with throwing
shield first: 70% for HG1, 50% that HG1 is not woken up, 70% for HG2 = 24.5% chance that everyone goes to sleep like good little monsters,
not counting initiative or chance of taking a total of 5 hp from all attacks.
If Twink loses initiative, his chances are the same
except that the hobgoblins have a better chance of hitting him, thanks to the lack of a
shield spell, and once HG1 is within range, he is most likely going to die pretty soon.