Richard Branson’s space flight

slobster

Hero
What then? The admiration of dorks?
Man, a lot of people in this thread calling me a dork for liking space! I mean I'm not saying you're all wrong, I just...

In any case, the space tourism industry is widely seen as a stepping stone which gets money out of rich people who can afford to do it for the lulz, then taking their money and reinvesting it in the development of next generation launch systems which make space industry, be it in LEO, on the moon, or more distant, finally economical and self-sustaining.

Once you reach that point of sustainability, the sky is quite literally not even the limit of what is possible.
 

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Snarf Zagyg

Notorious Liquefactionist
What then? The admiration of dorks?

When you've got all the money, what greater currency is there?

Bezos wept when he heard the Scientist discourse about an infinite number of worlds in the galaxy, and when his friends inquired what ailed him, "Is it not worthy of tears," Bezos said, "that, when the number of worlds is infinite, we have not yet made money of a single one but Earth?"
 

FitzTheRuke

Legend
Man, a lot of people in this thread calling me a dork for liking space! I mean I'm not saying you're all wrong, I just...

In any case, the space tourism industry is widely seen as a stepping stone which gets money out of rich people who can afford to do it for the lulz, then taking their money and reinvesting it in the development of next generation launch systems which make space industry, be it in LEO, on the moon, or more distant, finally economical and self-sustaining.

Once you reach that point of sustainability, the sky is quite literally not even the limit of what is possible.
Dude! I freakin' LOVE space.

I just know enough about it to rankle when people act like the solution to climate change is to move on to the next planet. (Believe it or not there are people who actually think that it can be done! Drives me nuts.)
 

Man, a lot of people in this thread calling me a dork for liking space! I mean I'm not saying you're all wrong, I just...

In any case, the space tourism industry is widely seen as a stepping stone which gets money out of rich people who can afford to do it for the lulz, then taking their money and reinvesting it in the development of next generation launch systems which make space industry, be it in LEO, on the moon, or more distant, finally economical and self-sustaining.

Once you reach that point of sustainability, the sky is quite literally not even the limit of what is possible.
Cards on the table: I’m a big-time dork too. Aren’t we all, as a baseline requirement of even skimming these forums?

more cards: I’ve interviewed Musk a couple of times, including for an article on space tourism, which ran in the lead up to Virgin Galactic’s initial proposed launch date for passengers…before a lethal test flight scrapped everything for years, a brief but pertinent detail that’s almost never include in the gushing coverage of Branson’s dumb flight.

The point that article centered on was what you’re presenting—that space spending is space spending, and accelerates progress toward economic and research benefits the likes of which we can’t even imagine. I bought into it at the time. Let these rich dummies pave the way for real progress.

Years later almost nothing could be more irrelevant, in my only slightly educated opinion. We are way beyond the inflection point for the climate crisis. What you’re talking about is extremely cool, but to me you’re telling me all about the super dope and innovative roofing materials I can install while every other house in the neighborhood is engulfed in flames and my vinyl siding is starting to melt. We are in an emergency, and I simply don’t care about some 100-year-long series of moonshots that all require billions or, in the case of space-based solar power, trillions of dollars, all of which will result in slightly more power or efficiency here and there, and all of it decades too late to prevent the inexorable slide toward global devastation.

Branson can’t stop what’s happening, or what’s coming, on his own. Neither can Musk or any of these unknowably weird and helplessly out of touch tech bros. But they can try. They can do their best. And if they won’t, then I and all the other hopeless chumps reserve the right to hate them for their ostentatious nonsense and idiotic notions of off world colonization. To hell with their bragging rights—they only get those if you cooperate.

Last thing: Years ago at an event for the magazine I worked at, where Musk was a presenter, I asked him how he expected to deal with the currently lethal problem of radiation for those in transit to Mars, and living there (without being confined to underground facilities, wholly defeating the purpose of colonizing another planet given all the caves you could live in here), and his answer was that someone else would solve the problem.

All hail our genius savior.
 


Umbran

Mod Squad
Staff member
Supporter
more cards: I’ve interviewed Musk a couple of times

Well, there's your problem right there. You want to get real information, don't go to the man whose words make his own wealth ride a roller-coaster.

Years later almost nothing could be more irrelevant, in my only slightly educated opinion.

Yeah, well, if you're going to put a stake in the ground while admitting your opinion is uneducated, maybe that's the moment you should take the stake out of the ground, hm?

We are way beyond the inflection point for the climate crisis.

Two things:

1) If Musk, Branson, and Bezos turned all their aerospace money toward climate... it wouldn't make a dent. Their spending on this is irrelevant on the scale of that problem. Space X's entire market valuation is something like $35 billion, and its yearly budget much smaller than that. Climate change will cost trillions.

2) We already have the technology to address our energy use. Now, the problem is an issue of political will. Musk, Branson, and Bezos can't fix our political will.

In addition, climate change is a now problem. Aerospace R&D helps us solve tomorrow problems. In part, past aerospace work (which is now part of modern solar cell and wind turbine materials and design, f'rex) is poised to help us solve the now problem, if we actually put shoulders to the wheel.

All hail our genius savior.

So, here's the thing - in this, you are arguing against a thing none of us are for. Nobody here has said that these guys, personally, are worth a fetid dingo kidney. We're supporting the work not the men. We support the work, not the dog and pony show of a rich man going into space.
 

Morrus

Well, that was fun
Staff member
I can’t really get on board with the premise that nobody should be allowed to spend money on anything except the most important thing in a world with Marvel movies and theme parks and iPhones.

(Also Branson isn’t in the same league as Musk, Bezos, Gates, etc. when it comes to wealth. He’s still a billionaire, admittedly, but Bezos is worth 30 times as much as him, and Musk isn’t far behind).
 

I can’t really get on board with the premise that nobody should be allowed to spend money on anything except the most important thing in a world with Marvel movies and theme parks and iPhones.
Exactly. It is incredibly entitled to think you can tell somebody else how to spend their money.
 

embee

Lawyer by day. Rules lawyer by night.
Even assuming that one doesn't see the value to Earth in doing things in space (which I covered a bunch in a longer comment upthread so I won't revisit that here), I've never understood why people who want to call out misspent money focus so vehemently on space research.

Last year, NASA's budget was about $23 billion. SpaceX (which has made massive advances in rocket reusability and lowering launch costs) doesn't cost taxpayers a dime, other than in space launch fees for space station missions which is included in the above NASA figure, and is in fact a cash positive enterprise as it operates a very profitable business selling services to customers. So it isn't a drain on the economy any more than any other profitable business.

For comparison, people around the world have spent approximately $23 billion JUST ON AVENGERS MOVIES (or I guess MCU movies). People spend about $20 billion on golf courses EVERY YEAR just in the United States. The United States spends $715 billion on defense every year, and the rest of the planet spends a combined $1200 billion on top of that. In 2020, countries exported around $80-100 billion in diamonds, a rough approximation of how much consumers spent on that. College football spends 18.8 billion every year in the United States, with $3.6 billion of that being spent on coach salaries alone!!

The whole point of that rant was just to point out that we as a planet spend money on a lot, A LOT of things with a dubious return on investment. Is space devlopment, which is arguably a positive for the economy even over the short term, and which is a massive boon for planetary science and climate science, really the place to raise moral objections?

Some food for thought!
First of all, let's clarify some things. Branson's flight was a Vomit Comet. That's all. Spaceship Two doesn't reach the Karman Line. It's the TWA plane from 2001.

Musk and Bezos, meanwhile, keep talking about self-sustaining extraterrestrial colonies without acknowledging that for the remainder of the century, at the very least, they will be not be self-sustaining. So, in order for those colonies to exist, Earth will continue to need to be habitable and able to spend resources both on climate management and mitigation in addition to space exploration and colonization.

There are a lot of preliminary steps that are being either elided or willfully ignored.

You ask:

"Is space development, which is arguably a positive for the economy even over the short term, and which is a massive boon for planetary science and climate science, really the place to raise moral objections?"

Yes.

Let's address the economic questions first...

First, who's economy? The United States is not the only nation on Earth, nor is it the most important. I say that as an American.

Second, define "the economy." Are you talking about employment? Are you talking about inflation? What do you mean by "the economy"?

Three, define "short term." Are we talking about increased employment and consumer spending over a one-year period? A five-year period? What is "short term"?

Four, is "the economy" more important than the ability of the planet to continue supporting 8 billion human beings?

Five, what type of economy are you talking about? Are you talking about the continuation of a consumer economy predicated on the manufacture and sale of semi-disposable goods? Is "the economy" of which you speak sustainable for more than the next 50 years?

Six, is the benefit to "the economy" from reusable rocket technology a greater benefit than the benefit to "the economy" from climate mitigation and environmental research? Do you know who has had a terrible month so far? Insurance companies, real estate investors, and pretty much anyone involved with the sale or ownership of real estate. Because right now, no one really knows whether billions of dollars of insured property will soon be ash, dust, or under water.

An oceanfront condo building in Miami collapsed and every single insurance company and real estate company is praying that it was due to poor maintenance and not because of climate change. On the west coast, wildfire season is starting to be year-round, and everything west of the Rockies is under drought conditions.

If you want to put this in economic terms, then you have to look at how increased temperatures and severe drought has imploded the ski industry supports Utah, Wyoming, Nevada, Colorado, and California. No snow means no skiing. And these are seasonal businesses that can only go a couple of years before they go bankrupt. Or look at the almond industry. 80% of the world's almonds grow in California. And the latest multi-year drought is forcing growers to either fallow other crops to divert water to almond orchards or to start culling almond trees altogether. Meanwhile, wildfires, in addition to burning homes and businesses (including farms), have also caused insurance costs to rise beyond the reach of many, including, for example wineries, another pillar of California's economy. So now you have people and businesses that are a flame away from collapse.

So, is space exploration a greater benefit to the economy than reversing or mitigating the effects of global climate change? I say no.

So, inasmuch as I do not believe that space exploration represents a net economic positive over climate research and development, your basic premise fails.

Seven, is the current approach by Mssrs. Bezos and Musk moral - to wit, a focus on reusable rocket technology with little to no research on terraforming. Both have stated their goals as space colonization. Musk's approach to terraforming is, and I wish I was kidding, to launch all of Earth's nuclear missiles at Mars to release enough CO2 into its atmosphere to capture and retain heat. Basically Total Recall. Meanwhile, Bezos' plan is to have everyone live forever on Rama ships and to just abandon terrestrial life, using moons and asteroid mining for resources.

Seven, are either of these approaches moral where such would almost certainly come at the cost of millions, if not billions, of human lives and the extinction of countless species?

The cart, right now, is in front of the horse. Until we can learn how to continue to have life on Earth, I say that space races like this are wrong. They do not substantially advance the existing research while simultaneously promoting the wrong belief that the immediate dangers to life, and yes, the economy, are less important than some vague undefined idea of space colonization.

As to Mr Branson, I ask this...

Given the decades-long history of failed promises by Mr Branson, is there any proof that his stated goal of "space tourism" - along with his willingness to take non-refundable deposits on flights that have yet to occur - is anything more than a fancy grift?
 

CleverNickName

Limit Break Dancing
Exactly. It is incredibly entitled to think you can tell somebody else how to spend their money.
That's not what's happening here, though. As far as I know, none of us have written an e-mail to any of these billionaires and told them what to do. (But I might be wrong. If you have, could you put in a good word for me, maybe mention my student loans?) And they likely wouldn't listen even if we did. They will do as they please with their money.

Plenty of us in this thread have criticized them for the choices they make, though. Vulgar displays of wealth and power have always drawn reproach from the public eye, and this is no exception. Even from orbit they won't be above criticism.

It's a different kind of hubris if we think they really care what the public has to say, though. If history truly does repeat itself, they aren't listening (and won't listen).
 
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