Mercurius
Legend
This probably could have gone into the 5E forum, but I thought because it includes a discussion of the game as a whole and is more "meta" than rules specific that I'd post it here. Mods, if you feel it belongs in the 5E forum, please feel free to move it.
I've been reading through Shannon Appelcline's wonderful four-volume Designers & Dragons series on the history of RPGs, in particular the long two-part series on Dungeons & Dragons, which begins in Volume 1: the 70s and ends in Volume 3: the 90s. Appelcline arranges the books one volume for each decade from the 70s to 00s, with those companies that started in a particular decade having their entire history in that book. So TSR, which was active from 1973 to 1997, is covered in its entirety in the 70s volume, while Wizards of the Coast, which started in 1990, is covered in the 90s. Its also worth checking out his discussion of Paizo and other OGL companies in Volume 4: the 00s.
Anyhow, something struck me while reading the history of D&D that I thought might make an interesting thread topic and discussion. Appelcline discusses the rise and fall of each edition, and the ups and down of the game as a whole. But what struck me is that every edition had a cycle of rise and inevitable fall. It might seem obvious, but I was thinking about this in relation to 5E, and how we are currently in the early growth period - before even the first inklings of any problems.
I've talked about this a bit before, in my "age theory" of RPGs using the traditional mythic structures of four ages that we see in Greek, Indian, and other cultures (i.e. golden, silver, bronze, and iron ages). I have commented that you can look at both the entire history of D&D, from 1974 to the present, but also individual editions through this lens.
But what I wanted to bring forward in this thread for discussion is speculating about 5E in light of the different eras of D&D, the different editions and how they rose and fell. To do so, I will briefly re-cap a few salient points from Appelcline's history, at least as I understand it. This is my take on Appelcline's work, so don't blame him if I got anything wrong!
OD&D: Published in 1974 with expansion books coming out over the next few years. It didn't as much "fall" as was replaced by updated versions that sought to clean up the rules, incorporate supplemental material, and then of course because of Gygax's development of AD&D. From that point, starting in 1977, D&D split into two "streams" or "branches": Basic/BX/BECMI on one hand, and AD&D on the other.
Basic/BX/BECMI: In a way Basic was the natural successor to OD&D, with J Eric Holmes wanting to create both a revised or cleaned up version of OD&D, but also a more accessible game. This stream went through various iterations - the Moldvay Basic/Expert sets in 1981, which was further revised and extended into the five-box BECMI sets in 1983-86, and then finally was compiled and further revised in the Rules Cyclopedia in 1991.
AD&D: One thing I didn't realize is that Gary Gygax partially wanted to make AD&D a more controlled, less free-wheeling form of D&D, that he didn't like how different DMs took their own approaches to the game. This certainly goes against popular convention about "Gygaxian D&D," at least as I understood it. Anyhow, the first "Holy Trinity" came out in 1977-79 and the game, like D&D, flourished. Trouble hit TSR around 1983 for a variety of reasons, but Appelcline attributes it to a clash of corporate culture vs. gamer culture (the Blume brothers then Lorraine Williams vs. Gary Gygax), but also extending themselves too far with some failed sub-projects (needlework!). AD&D dipped and then rose again in 1985, but then Gygax departed (was pushed out).
2E came out in 1989 and then we saw an explosion of creativity with the focus on settings: Spelljammer, Dark Sun, Al-Qadim, Planescape, and Birthright all came out from 1989-95, and Forgotten Realms only a couple years before. But TSR, again, extended themselves too far and was wobbly in the mid-90s. They lost (fired) a lot of their best designers and had a few faulty business ventures, such as the CCG Spellfire and Dragon Dice, and of course their reliance on the book trade and the problem of fulfilling too high of orders. With enormous debt they were bought out by Wizards of the Coast in 1997.
3E: D&D floated for a few years as WotC worked on 3E behind the scenes. We see another "golden age" in 2000-02 as 3E and the OGL flourishes, despite WotC founder Peter Adkison resigning at the end of 2000. But then 2003 hits and 3.5 comes out, and the OGL market nearly collapses. The next few years sees a more regular release of 3.5 material, but the OGL patina has worn off a bit.
4E: I won't go into much detail about 4E, but we all know the story and how the fan-base was fractured and the resulting "Edition Wars." After a first couple strong years, the edition started floundering in 2010, perhaps mainly due to unrealistic expectations on the part of upper management (Hasbro). The design team tried to infuse the line with fresh energy with the Essentials line in 2010, but it didn't really work. 2011 saw a huge drop-off with 2012 seeing 4E fade away into the night...even as "D&D Next" was announced.
5E came out in mid-2014 to much acclaim. While many seemed to find it a tad "tepid," the overall feeling about the game has been very positive, almost surprisingly so.
Which brings me back to this the focus of this thread. Every edition had a "golden age," the first two or three years in which the game thrived in some way or another, despite whatever challenges might have existed. And then every edition almost seemed to crest and then fall, with TSR or WotC scrambling to figure what to do to make the edition viable for a longer period of time. But eventually, inevitably, a new edition is announced. And so the cycle continues, again and again.
Every edition seems to have a crest, a point at which the game is perhaps at its most popular, the line is thriving, and the community is broad and (generally) happy. This isn't exact, and it may be that each edition has multiple peaks, especially when we take into account ".5" editions, but maybe we can say the crest of each edition is the early 80s for 1E, the early 90s for 2E, the early 00s for 3E, 2009 or so for 4E, and ??? for 5E. We don't know yet.
But here is what, in particular, I'm curious about discussing: Given that WotC is seemingly trying to take a different route with 5E, with the typical avalanche of product over the first few years, and then the necessity of a revision several years in to revive the line, how might these patterns look for 5E? What sort of crest, plateau, and eventual (and inevitable) decline might we see? Or will it be completely different?
What do you think? Given the context of D&D history, of the rise and fall of different editions, what do you think lies in store for 5E?
One thing I didn't mention above is the "dark side" of D&D history, in particular the endless litigations that TSR in particular found themselves involved in (and usually instigating), and also the expansions and contractions of the company leadoff to the infamous WotC "holiday layoffs." What part that has in this, I don't know, but perhaps we can use it as an indicator in some way.
A perhaps unnecessary disclaimer: I am in no way bagging on 5E, or any edition of the game. I love the game, have enjoyed every edition from 1E to 5E, and especially love 5E. Nor am I being morbid or pessimistic by predicting the "fall" of 5E. It is a natural and inevitable part of the process, just as every year "falls" into winter, with a new spring following. I am also not meaning to take away from current enjoyment of the game. But I do find meta-discussion about the game, its history, the industry etc, to be quite interesting. I fully realize that speculation is just that: speculation. But let's have a bit of fun, why don't we?
I've been reading through Shannon Appelcline's wonderful four-volume Designers & Dragons series on the history of RPGs, in particular the long two-part series on Dungeons & Dragons, which begins in Volume 1: the 70s and ends in Volume 3: the 90s. Appelcline arranges the books one volume for each decade from the 70s to 00s, with those companies that started in a particular decade having their entire history in that book. So TSR, which was active from 1973 to 1997, is covered in its entirety in the 70s volume, while Wizards of the Coast, which started in 1990, is covered in the 90s. Its also worth checking out his discussion of Paizo and other OGL companies in Volume 4: the 00s.
Anyhow, something struck me while reading the history of D&D that I thought might make an interesting thread topic and discussion. Appelcline discusses the rise and fall of each edition, and the ups and down of the game as a whole. But what struck me is that every edition had a cycle of rise and inevitable fall. It might seem obvious, but I was thinking about this in relation to 5E, and how we are currently in the early growth period - before even the first inklings of any problems.
I've talked about this a bit before, in my "age theory" of RPGs using the traditional mythic structures of four ages that we see in Greek, Indian, and other cultures (i.e. golden, silver, bronze, and iron ages). I have commented that you can look at both the entire history of D&D, from 1974 to the present, but also individual editions through this lens.
But what I wanted to bring forward in this thread for discussion is speculating about 5E in light of the different eras of D&D, the different editions and how they rose and fell. To do so, I will briefly re-cap a few salient points from Appelcline's history, at least as I understand it. This is my take on Appelcline's work, so don't blame him if I got anything wrong!
OD&D: Published in 1974 with expansion books coming out over the next few years. It didn't as much "fall" as was replaced by updated versions that sought to clean up the rules, incorporate supplemental material, and then of course because of Gygax's development of AD&D. From that point, starting in 1977, D&D split into two "streams" or "branches": Basic/BX/BECMI on one hand, and AD&D on the other.
Basic/BX/BECMI: In a way Basic was the natural successor to OD&D, with J Eric Holmes wanting to create both a revised or cleaned up version of OD&D, but also a more accessible game. This stream went through various iterations - the Moldvay Basic/Expert sets in 1981, which was further revised and extended into the five-box BECMI sets in 1983-86, and then finally was compiled and further revised in the Rules Cyclopedia in 1991.
AD&D: One thing I didn't realize is that Gary Gygax partially wanted to make AD&D a more controlled, less free-wheeling form of D&D, that he didn't like how different DMs took their own approaches to the game. This certainly goes against popular convention about "Gygaxian D&D," at least as I understood it. Anyhow, the first "Holy Trinity" came out in 1977-79 and the game, like D&D, flourished. Trouble hit TSR around 1983 for a variety of reasons, but Appelcline attributes it to a clash of corporate culture vs. gamer culture (the Blume brothers then Lorraine Williams vs. Gary Gygax), but also extending themselves too far with some failed sub-projects (needlework!). AD&D dipped and then rose again in 1985, but then Gygax departed (was pushed out).
2E came out in 1989 and then we saw an explosion of creativity with the focus on settings: Spelljammer, Dark Sun, Al-Qadim, Planescape, and Birthright all came out from 1989-95, and Forgotten Realms only a couple years before. But TSR, again, extended themselves too far and was wobbly in the mid-90s. They lost (fired) a lot of their best designers and had a few faulty business ventures, such as the CCG Spellfire and Dragon Dice, and of course their reliance on the book trade and the problem of fulfilling too high of orders. With enormous debt they were bought out by Wizards of the Coast in 1997.
3E: D&D floated for a few years as WotC worked on 3E behind the scenes. We see another "golden age" in 2000-02 as 3E and the OGL flourishes, despite WotC founder Peter Adkison resigning at the end of 2000. But then 2003 hits and 3.5 comes out, and the OGL market nearly collapses. The next few years sees a more regular release of 3.5 material, but the OGL patina has worn off a bit.
4E: I won't go into much detail about 4E, but we all know the story and how the fan-base was fractured and the resulting "Edition Wars." After a first couple strong years, the edition started floundering in 2010, perhaps mainly due to unrealistic expectations on the part of upper management (Hasbro). The design team tried to infuse the line with fresh energy with the Essentials line in 2010, but it didn't really work. 2011 saw a huge drop-off with 2012 seeing 4E fade away into the night...even as "D&D Next" was announced.
5E came out in mid-2014 to much acclaim. While many seemed to find it a tad "tepid," the overall feeling about the game has been very positive, almost surprisingly so.
Which brings me back to this the focus of this thread. Every edition had a "golden age," the first two or three years in which the game thrived in some way or another, despite whatever challenges might have existed. And then every edition almost seemed to crest and then fall, with TSR or WotC scrambling to figure what to do to make the edition viable for a longer period of time. But eventually, inevitably, a new edition is announced. And so the cycle continues, again and again.
Every edition seems to have a crest, a point at which the game is perhaps at its most popular, the line is thriving, and the community is broad and (generally) happy. This isn't exact, and it may be that each edition has multiple peaks, especially when we take into account ".5" editions, but maybe we can say the crest of each edition is the early 80s for 1E, the early 90s for 2E, the early 00s for 3E, 2009 or so for 4E, and ??? for 5E. We don't know yet.
But here is what, in particular, I'm curious about discussing: Given that WotC is seemingly trying to take a different route with 5E, with the typical avalanche of product over the first few years, and then the necessity of a revision several years in to revive the line, how might these patterns look for 5E? What sort of crest, plateau, and eventual (and inevitable) decline might we see? Or will it be completely different?
What do you think? Given the context of D&D history, of the rise and fall of different editions, what do you think lies in store for 5E?
One thing I didn't mention above is the "dark side" of D&D history, in particular the endless litigations that TSR in particular found themselves involved in (and usually instigating), and also the expansions and contractions of the company leadoff to the infamous WotC "holiday layoffs." What part that has in this, I don't know, but perhaps we can use it as an indicator in some way.
A perhaps unnecessary disclaimer: I am in no way bagging on 5E, or any edition of the game. I love the game, have enjoyed every edition from 1E to 5E, and especially love 5E. Nor am I being morbid or pessimistic by predicting the "fall" of 5E. It is a natural and inevitable part of the process, just as every year "falls" into winter, with a new spring following. I am also not meaning to take away from current enjoyment of the game. But I do find meta-discussion about the game, its history, the industry etc, to be quite interesting. I fully realize that speculation is just that: speculation. But let's have a bit of fun, why don't we?
