D&D 5E Rolled character stats higher than point buy?

Guess I shouldn't give people the benefit of a doubt. I assume people don't want to make trivial points in a conversation just for the sake of stating the obvious. Which means when someone does such a thing the conclusion is that they feel the trivial point is important for some reason. Sorry for assuming he had an important point to contribute to the conversation.

Um, if it's such a simple and pedantic point, then why are people fighting him so hard on it? ;)

Yes, you and [MENTION=6790260]EzekielRaiden[/MENTION] may only care about the end results. What is recorded on the character sheet. But the basic point is still the same.

To use the analogy-

Your method is 3d6 in order, discard all generated characters with an ability score below 14.
Round up all the men in the world, shoot all men under 6' 3".

In both cases, you will have an output (the finally generated characters, the men still standing) that is different because of the alteration. But the results are based on the original pool, skewed by the effect of the discard.

So what does that all mean? Well, for starters, you're going to have a lot of discards if you're using 3d6 in order, discard all characters that have an ability below 14. And also a population well-suited to basketball. :P

(This may be obvious, but it is meaningful.)
 

log in or register to remove this ad

I think the best observation is: we are talking about 2 different sets. Why does it matter how our set is derived?
 




You do realize that's two different probability distributions you just described? Of course they are different. It does not matter how a particular unique probability distribution is derived. You can't show it does by deriving two different probability distributions and then claiming they are different.

Infinite rollers, infinite generated characters. Each rolling 3d6 in order.

Method 1- Discard all characters that have an ability score below 14.
Method 2- After rolling, transmogrify all scores below 14 to 14.

Now, the end result (your output) is that you end up with a character that has no score below 14. Is it true, in this case, that the way it was achieved "does not matter," - in other words, would you expect the exact same set of results from Method 1 and Method 2?

And, as an aside, there is some humor in trying to dismiss someone else's post as "pedantic" and "trivial" in a D&D forum ... about the difference between rolled statistics and the point buy array ... when discussing statistics and probability. I'm not saying that we couldn't get nerdier (because we can!), but, well, actually I am saying that. This is exactly the place where people should be dealing with interesting, if, perhaps, trivial differences.
 


Are you trying to understand what a probability distribution actually is?

Muahahaha! It might be worth pointing out that I used the exact same example that first gave rise to your pithy comment. But why bother? You are neither bothering to engage with people, or bothering to try to understand.

There are better things to do try to engage with those who accuse others of pedantry and trivial distinctions before making a comment like that (quick- what's the problem with slinging around "probability distribution" in these example?), and luckily, this site enables that.
 
Last edited:


To use the analogy-

Your method is 3d6 in order, discard all generated characters with an ability score below 14.
Round up all the men in the world, shoot all men under 6' 3".

In both cases, you will have an output (the finally generated characters, the men still standing) that is different because of the alteration. But the results are based on the original pool, skewed by the effect of the discard.

So what does that all mean? Well, for starters, you're going to have a lot of discards if you're using 3d6 in order, discard all characters that have an ability below 14. And also a population well-suited to basketball. :P

(This may be obvious, but it is meaningful.)

If you only generate results "in full," sure, it'll take a long-donkey time--P(14+ on all 6 rolls) = 0.162^6 = 0.0000181, approx, or 1 in every 55,324 rolls. But I would think most people, if trying to apply these limitations, would not do that, because they'd know better. They'd roll a number of times, perhaps all 6 if you have 18d6 lying around, in clearly separate sets of 3. If you then find that any of those sets are below 14, you reroll only those triplets that are below 14, until they're not. That's far less cumbersome than rerolling all 18 dice until you luck into a set of all-14-plus. And, you're in luck--the expected value is around 1 dice-triplet of 14+ per set of 6 stats, so you should shave off at least one roll, on average, every time you try. Plus, the chance to get multiples compounds the speed-up, while the chance to get none at all only slightly slows things down (because getting no stats at all that are 14+ is low-probability: 1-(1-.162)^6 = .654, so about two thirds of all initial sets should have *at least* one, and more than half, p=0.587, of five-triplet sets should get at least one 14+, etc.)

There's more you can do, though. Frex, if 14 is the cutoff, you can simplify the process a bit more by excluding 1s from the distribution (it's not possible to have a roll of 14 that includes any number of 1s; it is just barely possible to achieve 14 with a single 2 e.g. {2,6,6}), and this can be done without needing "exclusion rules" by doing 3d5+3. This gets the probability of 14+ up to a nice, round 0.28, so getting all six at once = 0.28^6 = 0.000482, or approximately 1 in 2075 sets. You've got a decent chance of getting at least two stats of 14+ on the very first roll, meaning you'd only need to reroll 4 sets, making things dramatically faster.

And, of course, you can still keep the six results you got 'in order' or not--whether you choose one or the other is *truly* unrelated, as long as it's acceptable to discard only those parts of a set that disqualify until they qualify.

Also: this post has been published posthumously, as I was three inches too short. Alas!
 
Last edited:

Remove ads

Top