Ryan Dancey - D&D in a Death Spiral

[Aus_Snow]

I was serious. I have no problem with nerd-rage on either side, but Tetsubo never has anything to say other than "4e killed D&D!"

You can't engage with that.

This is only one example, straight from Google, but it will do for just fine this purpose, I expect:

http://www.enworld.org/forum/art-ga...253653-weapon-illustrations-new-4-3-09-a.html

So, on the contrary, it is mischaracterisation such as yours, right there, that cannot be engaged with, or - often - reasoned with.

IL+1 (total: 3, btw)

 

[Puggins]

So subtle even I missed it.

I was serious. I have no problem with nerd-rage on either side, but Tetsubo never has anything to say other than "4e killed D&D!"

You can't engage with that.

He's implying that you're saying the same thing about Gothmag. I was thinking along the same lines- your wording kept that door open. Obviously not your intent, though.

 

[Jeff Wilder]

He's implying that you're saying the same thing about Gothmag. I was thinking along the same lines- your wording kept that door open. Obviously not your intent, though.

Right. Moral of the story: On EN World, don't trust your own double-take.

 

[Wulf Ratbane]

This is only one example, straight from Google, but it will do for just fine this purpose, I expect.

My bad. He also posts weapon illustrations.

Which of course completely absolves Testubo of the impression he has fomented that he only shows up in discussion threads to proclaim the death of D&D.

I'm sure Gothmog (a 4e fan) and me (a 3e fan) both just completely misread Tetsubo's habitual threadcrapping.

 

[Aus_Snow]

My bad. He also posts weapon illustrations.

Which of course completely absolves Testubo of the impression he has fomented that he only shows up in discussion threads to proclaim the death of D&D.

I'm sure Gothmog (a 4e fan) and me (a 3e fan) both just completely misread Tetsubo's habitual threadcrapping.

Heh. You just made the 'shortest time ever on my EN **** list' record, fwiw.*

Sorry, it was my version of a hissy, EN-style. Now I've thought about it, I realised I was out of line. To be honest, I haven't a clue as to whether Tetsubo is usually - in your words - 'threadcrapping' when it comes to D&D discussion. So, I assumed you were being unfair. Which, ironically, was kinda unfair as well.

Guh, these threads and me = a poor mix, sometimes. But I'll just say again that, for all I know, Tetsubo might indeed always post in such a way, or very rarely! So, for me, "the jury's out".


* The list that, in '08, went to 11! No, really. Actually eleven. So two's not so bad, really.

 

[Sunderstone]

Im going to agree with Ryan Dancey's points on this as tarnished as his reputation may be.
I think if the PHB2 sold as well as people stated, there would be cause for another print run, even a smaller one.
I also tend to believe that it sold well because it may have only had a limited print run to begin with and there might be a few folks left out in the cold.

Bacris has a good point about people who were on the fence when the new edition was coming. I know a few people who tried 4E but it didnt grab them either and they didnt consider it what D&D should have evolved to. I also have a friend that moved to FL and is DM'ing 4E because its the only D&D fix he can get. He says its "passable" for now. But like most of you say.... these are purely anecdotal.

Time will tell, but I expect more doom and gloom to come. Ryan may have been predicting this for awhile but theres no denying the fractured fanbase/market this time around, the economy impacting company decisions, etc.

On a slight tangent, ive read in a few places over the last few months that the video game industry is going strong. Someone mentioned that the economy hit there as well, I would disagree here too. There were few developers changing HQs and a closing or two, but this is all normal.

 

[Jan van Leyden]

Well, without any insider knowledge and only going by Ryan Dancey's analysis:

The analysis seems to be well thought out, but may be off on one important point. It may be that the decision makers' environment is not so "information rich" in the case of PHB2. PHB2 is a new kind of product for the D&D line.

It's not a regular supplement like, say, Dungeon Delve or Open Grave, for which a good estimation of prospected sales can be made.

It's not a core book, so placing it at the same level of sales as PHB1 would also be wrong.

I assume WotC has tried placing it somewhere in between these models and convincing their (corporate) customers to do likewise. If they marketed it as "probably not as strong as PHB1, but much stronger than Open Grave", the environment is, by necessity, not as information rich as in other cases. Thus, the number of pre-orders may be less than accurate.

Add in the current economic climate - WotC will have no interest in overstocking - and the print run is not as accurate as it should be. Luckily for WotC, they printed to few, not too many copies.

Again, I have no insider knowledge, so my theory may be not worth the bytes it's made off.

Oh, and I apologise for binging this thread back to its origin.

 

[Brown Jenkin]

Not if it's digital . . .

My VCR flashing 12:00 is still right twice a day.

 

[GMforPowergamers]

It's not a regular supplement like, say, Dungeon Delve or Open Grave, for which a good estimation of prospected sales can be made.

It's not a core book, so placing it at the same level of sales as PHB1 would also be wrong.

I assume WotC has tried placing it somewhere in between these models and convincing their (corporate) customers to do likewise. If they marketed it as "probably not as strong as PHB1, but much stronger than Open Grave", the environment is, by necessity, not as information rich as in other cases. Thus, the number of pre-orders may be less than accurate.

I had a simalar thought.

I see Wotc marketing saying "everything is core" and hopeing it sticks, but deep down I don't think even they belived it. So when they came to PHB2 they played it like a suplment...but it sold like core.
From what I have seen (Localy) most players bought PHB2 if they had PHB1 and where actively playing...(I would say 60-70%) well only about hafl of them (so 30-35% over all) were buying things like open grave, martial power...
I think Wotc printed much more then open grave, but much less then PB1...and sold closer to phb1


((((All things stated in this post are opionons please don't ask for what my proof))))

 

[billd91]

My VCR flashing 12:00 is still right twice a day.

But it's also not broken.