Ryan Dancey on Redefining the Hobby (Updated: time elements in a storytelling game)

[kenmarable]

the analogy is awful. TV whomped film and sure the film industry survives...DVD sales for home TV viewing keep it afloat and is where the future profit growth is for the film industry.

Well, I disagree entirely with the first part of your statement ("analogy is awful"), but the 2nd part might hold something useful. Much of the film industry is surviving on DVD sales, so perhaps a similar method might be of use here. Maybe TRPGs could use the MMORPGs and computer/video games to support their own survival. Creating new IP/fluff/non-rules content/etc. in TRPGs is far easier and less expensive than doing it in the computer realm. So perhaps, TRPGs companies, at least the big ones, can survive by, for example, creating and refining settings through the roleplaying games, then leveraging that into the money making MMORPGs.

Of course, as seen to some extent by D&D Online (and definitely the D&D movies *shudder*), it's not a guaranteed success, but using the "cheaper" TRPG realm to filter the creative ideas and then getting them into the potentially more profitable computer game realm (or even other media like TV and movies) would be a wise thing to consider. With the comic book industry being so hard to turn a profit in, I wouldn't be surprised if the movies are what's keeping Marvel afloat. Same thing here - create the Eberron video games, the Greyhawk movies, etc. and use those to fund the roleplaying games where the next great setting/character/etc. can arise to be exploited for fun and profit in other media.

 

[Falstaff]

FWIW, I think the movie industry is dying a slow death, too. I mean, for two adults, I'll spend $18 at the theater to watch something that will be out on DVD in 3 months, which I can purchase for that much, if not less. That doesn't include the cost of gas and popcorn.

I don't see how the theater industry is a sustainable model. It seems to be, but I can't see it lasting forever, honestly. How can it?


It also seems to me that MMORPGs are offering the same kind of value that home theater systems are offering - cheaper, more bang for the buck, more versatility. The same reason CDs are going to eventually go the way of the dinosaur - people now buy individual MP3s to get exactly the songs they want. Radio is also dying - people want choices, they want personalized entertainment.


I think some folks have the idea - D&D needs to be multiple kinds of games if it is to succeed. Firstly, it HAS to be simpler. One should be able to open a box/book, roll characters, and be ready to play in about 30 minutes, tops. I'd really be interested in seeing a "group study" of teenagers who were not familiar with the game at all, handed dice, a PHB, and a DMG, and told "play a game. You have 4 hours." I think for WoTC, it would be a HORRIBLE wake-up call.

In fact, I might even be tempted to do such a thing myself. Just to illustrate the point.

Not to mention how long it takes a DM to build NPCs. Especially NPCs over 5th level. What a headache!

 

[Belen]

Mongoose brings in. . . a 'few'. . . million a year (it is a little few, not a big few ). It doesn't really matter if you believe that or not, but you should consider that we have 24 full-time employees, 3000 sq. ft. of offices in the UK, a miniatures production facility in the US, and we are still bringing in new licences. We just brought in about half a million's Dollars worth of printing equipment so we can avoid the inevitable route to China. Despite games like A Call to Arms and Battlefield Evolution, the majority of that is built on RPGs.

I do not disagree that your total income equals a few million a year. However, I was disagreeing with your implication that the RPGs were doing so. Hell, the only store in our area that bought a Conan book has seen it sit on the shelf for 15 months.

 

[Bayushi Seikuro]

I think some folks have the idea - D&D needs to be multiple kinds of games if it is to succeed. Firstly, it HAS to be simpler. One should be able to open a box/book, roll characters, and be ready to play in about 30 minutes, tops. I'd really be interested in seeing a "group study" of teenagers who were not familiar with the game at all, handed dice, a PHB, and a DMG, and told "play a game. You have 4 hours." I think for WoTC, it would be a HORRIBLE wake-up call.

In fact, I might even be tempted to do such a thing myself. Just to illustrate the point.

I believe they mentioned this exact setup on the last D&D podcast, and if I recall correctly, what they ended up with was... kids playing D&D 'wrong'... but having an insanely great time playing it.

And not a little wrong. Like wrong on serious, fundamental levels. But people loved the heck out of it.

I think the podcast they talk about this on is the second half of Mearls and Noonan answering from the e-mailbag.

 

[maddman75]

"Story telling" puts in the mind of the DM a priority that IMO is at odds with what the game is about. The traditional game has strong elements of "adjucating the situation" to it - rolling dice behind the screen, deciding on NPC reactions based on versimiltude, etc. There are very few places, if any, in the core books where the assumption is that the DM will decide outcome based on his arbitrary notions of what makes for an interesting story, and yet that's what "story telling" denotes, and ultimately encourages.

No no no. This is not what I, and I'm certain the others on the pro-story side, are talking about. I don't use a screen in any game that I run, I don't usually play at a table and even then I don't like having a barrier between me and the players. Heck, the game I currently run the GM doesn't even roll dice! A good game for story creating will give the players their own 'fudge points', so that if they think they really need to make that shot or avoid that blow or whatever they can do so.

Story creating gaming is most explicitly *NOT* deciding outcomes based on notions of what makes for an interesting story! It is about deciding what conflicts and the pace of the game in the interest of making an interesting story.

I know people have a hard time grasping that story based gaming doesn't have to be railroading. Heck, I've posted my notes and then the results of the game to prove it before. But just because you want to guide things into a intro-expo-climax-coda structure and push personal conflicts at the players does not mean you are railroading them.

 

[MongooseMatt]

I do not disagree that your total income equals a few million a year. However, I was disagreeing with your implication that the RPGs were doing so. Hell, the only store in our area that bought a Conan book has seen it sit on the shelf for 15 months.

In that case, you are completely right. I apologise.

 

[kenmarable]

Mongoose brings in. . . a 'few'. . . million a year (it is a little few, not a big few ). It doesn't really matter if you believe that or not, but you should consider that we have 24 full-time employees, 3000 sq. ft. of offices in the UK, a miniatures production facility in the US, and we are still bringing in new licences. We just brought in about half a million's Dollars worth of printing equipment so we can avoid the inevitable route to China. Despite games like A Call to Arms and Battlefield Evolution, the majority of that is built on RPGs.

Now, our income is in Pound Sterling and, of course, the majority of our revenue is from wholesale. So, double a few million to change it into Dollars and, well, see where I am going?

_This_ is why I keep saying the RPG industry is not dying a death. I feel like a voice in the wilderness at times but, from where we are sitting, things are perky!

Just curious, but are you willing to share, generally, the percent of sales that are US vs. UK vs. other country?

I just wonder if some disconnect between numbers and between anecdotal evidence of "gamers we know" or "stores nearby" might because you have a strong presence outside of the US, whereas at least with myself - "gamers I know" and "stores nearby" have actually very little presence outside of the US.

And as skeptical as I am of Ryan's numbers as well, it's at least a methodical way to try and come to a number in an industry where sales numbers are typically quite secret (thanks, by the way, Matt, for sharing what info you have). One problem I see with his numbers is figuring that rounding the numbers up to more generous levels accounts for PDF sales and Amazon, etc. Not sure what the latest numbers are for PDF sales, but I wouldn't be surprised if Amazon sales are at least equal to FLGS sales across the industry. Throw in some chain bookstores as well (which, I don't *think* his numbers include), and the FLGS market is actually the minority of sales.

But, I have no numbers to back that, just some background having worked at Borders bookstores HQ as well as reasoned thinking. So I could be entirely wrong, of course. But I'm thinking it's a safe bet that Amazon sales are far, far larger than what Ryan is factoring at least for industry leaders like WotC. What would be interesting is if Scott could mention percent of D&D sales through Amazon vs. FGLS, etc. It could potentially shot a very large hole in Ryan's estimate.

 

[Raven Crowking]

I've been DMing since 1981, played my first D&D in the late 70's, and I'm a die hard old school DM & player.

<snip>

Fix the DM issue & the lousy non-inspiring books and face to face, paper and pencil games will grow again.

Heh. I started playing and DMing on Christmas day, 1979. Blue Box set.

I just wanted you to know that what you wrote didn't fall on entirely deaf ears. I agree that the current edition is horribly designed for DMing, and that the game is made or broken by having good DMs.

RC

 

[JDJblatherings]

Well, I disagree entirely with the first part of your statement ("analogy is awful"), but the 2nd part might hold something useful. Much of the film industry is surviving on DVD sales, so perhaps a similar method might be of use here. Maybe TRPGs could use the MMORPGs and computer/video games to support their own survival. Creating new IP/fluff/non-rules content/etc. in TRPGs is far easier and less expensive than doing it in the computer realm. So perhaps, TRPGs companies, at least the big ones, can survive by, for example, creating and refining settings through the roleplaying games, then leveraging that into the money making MMORPGs.
....

I had a hope that there would be some sort of cross industry support and promotion for D&D when Hasbro bought WoTC but it never materialized. WoTc seemingly can't risk the expenditures and the whole situation is too small for Hasbro to put much concern into.
there has to be enough effort (and money) behind such an effort for it to work.

 

[buzz]

Therefore, I think we need to engage in metamorphosis from “roleplaying games” to “storytelling games”. And in that change lies the seeds of our success.
...
We seize the key differences between our format and the MMORPG: Joint creativity, and the group dynamic, and we refocus the hobby on making those differences the centerpiece of the experience.

Already happening.

http://www.indie-rpgs.com/
http://www.story-games.com/forums/
http://www.indiepressrevolution.com/
http://planet-sg.ogrecave.com/
http://community.livejournal.com/ige/
http://goplaynow.org/
http://www.ashcanfront.net/

That said...

I think this is a horribly, horribly flawed view of why people play games like D&D.
...
Ryan, you'll note that I didn't say that game replaces story for RPGs. I simply said that story isn't why people play RPGs. I don't think people play RPGs for the pure game experience, either. I think people play RPGs for a staggering number of reasons. To pin it on one specific motivator misses the entire point of RPGs.

I also agree with this. Transforming D&D into a Narrativist, shared-authority story-game (or railroaded "StoryTelling" game) is not going to save it. The tactical, Gamist thing that D&D does so well is a huge draw for, obviously, a whole lot of people. That MMORPGs and CRPGs are very good performers in this design space is simply a very unfortunate thing for D&D.

Ergo, assuming D&D can be saved at all, it's by emphasizing its strengths over its digital competitors. The creation of story, however, is not one of those strengths.

I'm actually quite encouraged by Mearls' and Noonan's podcast, as well as the "Design & Development" article series on the WotC. I think it's very apparent that the team at WotC understands the tactical, Gamist appeal that's at the core of D&D, and they're working hard to make D&D do that as well, and as easily, as it possibly can, ideally in ways that MMORPGs/CRPGs don't.