Ryan Dancey on Redefining the Hobby (Updated: time elements in a storytelling game)

[FireLance]

While I don't necessarily agree that we need to change the name of the game (and especially not from "Roleplaying Game" to "Storytelling Game" ), I do agree on one point: table-top games have got to focus on their strengths instead of trying to copy the strengths of online games, and need to deliver a value proposition that capitalizes on those strengths. So what can't online games deliver (yet) that table-top games can? Off the top of my head (and please correct me if I'm wrong, since I'm not very familiar with online games):

1. Ability to permanently affect the game world.
2. Flexibility in character creation and advancement beyond a limited menu of choices.
3. Ability to introduce player-created content into the game world (related to the two points above).
4. Flexibility in character action and objectives beyond a limited menu of choices.

I think the difficulty will be coming up with a table-top game with these as explicit design goals, and actually implementing them through the fallible hands of thousands of DMs.

 

[Glyfair]

I have a feeling, he was proponent of virtualization and tools such as e-tools and their better version based on some game engine (Arcanum was it?).

I think you might be confusing him with Jim Butler, who seems to have been one of the people moving eTools in that direction. I've seen Ryan push towards an electronic component to the game, but not necessarily a virtualization one.

In fact, I remember someone from WotC stating that eTools wouldn't be a "virtual tabletop." At the same times, more and more eTools content seemed to be aimed in that direction (all the monster sounds, and 3D images they were creating).

 

[RyanD]

I have a feeling, he was proponent of virtualization and tools such as e-tools and their better version based on some game engine (Arcanum was it?).

I was never a fan of that strategy. I wanted eTools to be a suite of software that DMs would use to create content like that found in WotC modules, and players would use to make PCs correctly and quickly, avoiding the problems of complexity. I was a very strong opponent of the idea that eTools should be a virtual D&D tabletop.

Ryan

 

[Maggan]

So, I can't help to think that what Ryan means by "storytelling games" is not what I believe gamers today think of as storyteller games; either World of Darkness, or the short games such as Baron Münchhausen.

That'll create confusion, no doubt.

/M

 

[Li Shenron]

Did he say where did the sales data for the chart on the hobby games business came from?

I have to say that the chart above leaves me a bit meh... Perfectly ok from his point of view to compare for example RPG with CCG, because he's talking about the size of the industry/business. So I guess that the vertical axis shows company profit per area or something like that?

However, from MY point of view, the point of view of a gamer, I'd be much more interested in comparing the two by the amount of people that actively play RPG vs CCG. That is more important to me than industry profit/revenue, because even the hopefully unlikely case that the industry itself stop isn't going to stop my hobby. OTOH, lack of gamers WILL stop me playing as well...

It's not clear what the chart actually shows... The vertical axis is certainly in $, but could even represent the average amount of money spent per year by a gamer. Or MIGHT be in fact a factor proportional to the amount of gamers...

IF that's the case, the chart would tell that the amount of RPGers has halved in time, exactly due to the coming of CCG in the 90s, like half of the RPGers moved to CCG while the other half remained (and still remains) solidly into RPGs.
It also shows that the growth is all in CCG and not in RPG.
At the same time it shows how unstable the gaming community of CCG is (going up/down every other year), perhaps because of younger age CCGers are more sensible to new fashionable games/hobbies coming out? It would suggest that CCG segment has better chances to strike a fortune, but also much higher risks than the smaller but more stable RPG segment...


Just my 2cp.

 

[RyanD]

Did he say where did the sales data for the chart on the hobby games business came from?

My data is based on public & private sources. For 2006, I estimate the size of the tabletop RPG business (exclusive of miniatures & support products like magazines, dice, etc.) at $17-$20 million (at wholesale).

To put that in context, my estimate for the size of the TRPG category in 2001 was $30 million; I estimate we've lost roughly half the total market in the past 6 years.

For a public source of data worth discussing, review the figures in Comics & Games Retailer. While this data is notoriously unreliable in detail, it has proven to be reasonably accurate in terms of trend analysis and overall volume of business. I'm looking at issue #185 (August 2007). Monthly averages for unit sales volume throughout 2006 and 2007 have been less than 60 units consistently.

Let's assume the average SRP of those products is $30. Let's assume there's 2,000 stores selling TRPGs (there aren't but this is a way of accounting for the bookstores).

60 books * $30 * 2,000 stores * 12 months == $43,200,000 in projected retail sales. The average discount works out to be about 43% of SRP, so publisher revenues in this model would be $18,576,000.

Note: That figure is likely over stated because the total unit volume is less than 60 books, the aggregate SRP is probably lower than $30, and there are certainly less than 2,000 stores selling the average number of books per month. But its a workable place for discussion, and helps account for things like PDF sales, Amazon.com, etc.

That figure jibes with other (non public) data I have, and it seems to be a good fit with observed trends in the retail stores I visit & correspond with.

Scott, if you'd like to provide more specific sales data on WotC's RPGs, I'm all ears.

Ryan

 

[MerricB]

How much of a shift has there been from sales of D&D at Game Stores to sales of D&D online & at book stores?

Cheers!

 

[wedgeski]

RD's blog has got me thinking, as usual.

A lot of people *play* (not DM) D&D for the same reasons that people play MMO's: for socialising, avatar empowerment, strategic thinking and group strategic thinking. This is the crossover between the two game types and I think is why 3ed has been so successful (relatively speaking), because it tapped into the exact same effort/reward feedback loop that now makes MMO's so addictive.

One problem with tabletop roleplaying though is that the *DM* does not necessarily play for those reasons. In fact I would say many DM's fit perfectly into RD's "[wants] to tell a great story" model, even if most players probably do not. As long as you have this dichotomy, any one theory of 'redefining the hobby' is going to run into trouble. Successfully marketing to both players and DM's will always be a neat trick, and it's a problem that MMO's simply don't have.

 

[RyanD]

However, from MY point of view, the point of view of a gamer, I'd be much more interested in comparing the two by the amount of people that actively play RPG vs CCG.

There used to be vastly more people playing TRPGs monthly than playing Magic monthly. In 1999 we estimated the monthly player community at 1.5 million players (for D&D) and about 2-2.5 million players (all TRPGs combined). I believe that total increased from 2000-2003, but I don't have access to any reliable data to support that conclusion, it's just a guess.

Here's the math for Magic:

Assumptions: The average player buys 2.5 displays worth of each expansion. Assume the average booster display contains 36 booster packs, at SRP$3.49. Assume 3 expansions per year.

Assume the US wholesale value of Magic is $50 million (that means WotC sells $50 million worth of Magic to its wholesalers). The Magic discount is about 45% of SRP. So the retail value of Magic in the US is about $110 million.

$110 million / 3 expansions / 36 boosters / $3.49 / 2.5 displays per expansion == 116,733 players.

Assume a significant overhang for people trying out the game but not becoming dedicated players, speculators, grey market sales, etc, and it would be fair to estimate the US player community for Magic is between 150,000 and 200,000 players.

Magic accounts for about 33% of total CCG sales in the US, so if we assumed that everyone playing every other game exclusively played those games (which we know is false, but gives us a hard upper limit on players) the US CCG population is between 450,000 and 600,000 players.

The interesting question becomes: After WoW growing to 9 million players, and the TRPG business losing half (or more) of its volume from its recent height, how many people are still playing a TRPG monthly? My gut instinct tells me that the figure has probably fallen by 50%, to somewhere around 1 million people.

Of course, there's very little relation between the number of people playing TRPGs vs. the number of people buying them.

Ryan

 

[wedgeski]

The interesting question becomes: After WoW growing to 9 million players, and the TRPG business losing half (or more) of its volume from its recent height, how many people are still playing a TRPG monthly? My gut instinct tells me that the figure has probably fallen by 50%, to somewhere around 1 million people.

This may sound like a dumb question, but is there actual data that MMO's and TRPG's/CCG's are substitutes?