Scenario - 2009: WOTC drops D&D product line - Death or Resurrection for RPG hobby?

[catsclaw227]

I voted: A fragmented market, no major marketing engine - the hobby begins a slow, inevitable decline.

But the truth is, personally, I have sooooo much D&D 3.5 stuff that I could DM published material every weekend for the rest of my life. I think there are a lot of people like this, and therefore a lot of players would continue playing on.

Existing DMs and Players would still game.

The industry may suffer dramatically, but tables around the world would likely still be playing for a few more decades.

 

[Odhanan]

I think such a scenario could be an opportunity in disguise. It could very well revitalize the hobby. I don't believe in the doomsday or decline scenarios. At least things would remain the same, because someone else would pick up the ball of leader of the market (or rather, gamers would select a new one).

 

[WhatGravitas]

Existing DMs and Players would still game.

That's what I call decline: Because of a lack of growth, and existing players won't play forever for various reasons.

Cheers, LT.

 

[catsclaw227]

That's what I call decline: Because of a lack of growth, and existing players won't play forever for various reasons.

Which is why I voted: A fragmented market, no major marketing engine - the hobby begins a slow, inevitable decline.

 

[Thornir Alekeg]

My option isn't there - it is a combination of two options listed. Other companies take up the creative slack, the hobby retains its current level of popularity.

And I seriously doubt this would ever come to pass. If the game ends up doing so poorly as to not be worthwhile to maintain, then the value of the brand name would be so low that somebody out there would be able to afford to buy it. WotC/Hasbro would sell it off to get something for the name, rather than let it sit there doing nothing as the value continued to decline.

 

[Odhanan]

That's what I call decline: Because of a lack of growth, and existing players won't play forever for various reasons.

Cheers, LT.

I don't agree. The vast majority of gamers have not been introduced to the game by picking up a D&D product in a store. They've been introduced to the hobby by relatives and friends who were already gamers. This would still be the case without D&D. The circle would go on.

 

[Aus_Snow]

I don't agree. The vast majority of gamers have not been introduced to the game by picking up a D&D product in a store. They've been introduced to the hobby by relatives and friends who were already gamers. This would still be the case without D&D. The circle would go on.

Precisely.

Also, even if D&D wasn't the giant it is, another (or more than one other) would rise to take its place (in terms of popularity.) I'm pretty sure of it - lots of gamers already start/ed with something other than the current version of D&D at the time, and many still (or now) play such a game.

That said, I nonetheless wish the guys at WotC all the best with their endeavours. And hey, all the other game companies too!

 

[an_idol_mind]

It would definitely be a bad thing for the industry, but I'm not convinced it would be a death knell. The gaming shops in my area already sell a lot of comics, board games, and miniatures, so while I think the RPG shelf would shrink, I doubt it would disappear. The market would shrink, but I don't know that it would be permanent. A company with good production values, such as Kenzer, White Wolf, or Green Ronin, could create an RPG or adapt an existing one to introduce the concept of role-playing to newcomers. While D&D is an excellent gateway, I don't think it's the only possible gateway.

The main thing is that I think a demand for RPGs will very likely remain. Whether it becomes a computer-based hobby or transforms into a board game or whatever, people will still want to role play. I don't think role-playing games exist because of D&D. I think that D&D exists because the demand for RPGs was there, and happened to be untapped at the time. Our hobby might be small compared to others, but I don't think it's so small that its future rests entirely on the shoulders of D&D.

(As an aside, I think the closest thing we've seen to this situation is when TSR's printers shut down and there was no D&D for about six months or so -- does anyone have some sales numbers or other information that could demonstrate how the industry coped during those dark days?)

 

[DaveMage]

I think you'd see companies like Mongoose really taking off. Conan sales would undoubtedly increase as some look for their fix.

However, with licensing deals for CRPGs, the D&D name would still be out there.

 

[dpmcalister]

Nothing will change. D&D isn't the be all and end all of role playing. Sure it's the 800lb gorilla, but other games exist. FLGS' will take a massive hit, but PDF sales will rise (perhaps not to the level of current print sales though).

As for a decline, role playing has been declining for the last 15-20 years, it's not going to stop with 4e!