Scenario - 2009: WOTC drops D&D product line - Death or Resurrection for RPG hobby?

[catsclaw227]

What I expect to happen is that WOTC will cancel D&D as a tabletop game in 2 or 3 years, in order to focus on trading card and miniatures games.

Wait, do you really expect this to happen or do you expect this in the context of the OPs hypothetical situation?

Why would WOTC/Hasbro invest so much into 4e only to cancel it in 2-3 years?

 

[Clavis]

Wait, do you really expect this to happen or do you expect this in the context of the OPs hypothetical situation?

Why would WOTC/Hasbro invest so much into 4e only to cancel it in 2-3 years?

No I really expect it to happen, because I think 4th edition is going to fail on account of fracturing the market.

 

[prosfilaes]

No I really expect it to happen, because I think 4th edition is going to fail on account of fracturing the market.

That was said about just about every other new edition of D&D. I think the evidence supports the conclusion that sooner or later, enough people will convert that it won't fracture the market.

 

[catsclaw227]

No I really expect it to happen, because I think 4th edition is going to fail on account of fracturing the market.

Well, for the sake of the D&D brand and tabletop RPGs in general, I hope you are wrong. I'll put my money on 4e. I think it's a darn safe bet.

 

[Lanefan]

That was said about just about every other new edition of D&D. I think the evidence supports the conclusion that sooner or later, enough people will convert that it won't fracture the market.

The over-riding question is will 4e bring in enough new players (customers) to offset those who stick with 3e (or earlier) and thus drop out of the market? If yes, or yes-plus, then all is well. If no, then just about any possible scenario is in play.

3e, for all its failings, brought in gobs of new or returning players and was quite a marketing success. 4e has some rather large shoes to fill here; just how large depends on the bottom-line expectations of WotC/Hasbro, and while for the sake of the game I wish it well it's got a big hill to climb.

Oh, and to somewhat echo a post from earlier: of our crew of about 15, as far as I know only 3 - maybe 4 - ever even read ENWorld (though one advertises his business here), and of those I'm the only active participant on the discussion boards. And believe me, there's times when what I read here and what I hear around the table couldn't be more different!

Lanefan

 

[catsclaw227]

Oh, and to somewhat echo a post from earlier: of our crew of about 15, as far as I know only 3 - maybe 4 - ever even read ENWorld (though one advertises his business here), and of those I'm the only active participant on the discussion boards. And believe me, there's times when what I read here and what I hear around the table couldn't be more different!

Ditto with my group. I am the only one that follows the board discussions, and the rest are blindly eager to try it out because its new.

 

[prosfilaes]

The over-riding question is will 4e bring in enough new players (customers) to offset those who stick with 3e (or earlier) and thus drop out of the market? If yes, or yes-plus, then all is well. If no, then just about any possible scenario is in play.

No's not improbable, but "no" isn't just about possible scenario. There's a lot more similarity between gaining 10% and losing 10% then there is between losing 10% and losing 50%.

3e, for all its failings, brought in gobs of new or returning players and was quite a marketing success. 4e has some rather large shoes to fill here;

I seriously doubt that there's very many people not touched by 3rd ed. for 4th ed. to drag in. But I doubt many will stick with 3rd ed or drop out, and a lot of people float in and out.

 

[prosfilaes]

Ditto with my group. I am the only one that follows the board discussions, and the rest are blindly eager to try it out because its new.

Whereas, last time I heard from my old group, they were a bit burned out on all the 3.0 splatbooks followed by the 3.5 splatbooks, and were quite cynical towards the new edition.

 

[PoeticJustice]

I don't agree. The vast majority of gamers have not been introduced to the game by picking up a D&D product in a store. They've been introduced to the hobby by relatives and friends who were already gamers. This would still be the case without D&D. The circle would go on.

I agree with this point, but I also think the D&D community would cease to exist in the current form. I compare it to Betrayal on the House on the Hill: There's a big group of people around me who play it, sure, but it's not exactly a centerpiece of the gaming community.

 

[prosfilaes]

I agree with this point, but I also think the D&D community would cease to exist in the current form. I compare it to Betrayal on the House on the Hill: There's a big group of people around me who play it, sure, but it's not exactly a centerpiece of the gaming community.

One difference is that with the OGL, there would be new replacements for the PHB. Whether there would be one that would grab the core of the market is a different question. Perhaps several of the existing OGL companies would team up to produce a solid core D&D replacement, but they would be fighting various variant D&D systems (like C&C) and probably aggressive marketing by non-D&D companies.