D&D 5E (2014) Signs & Portents (that we can read into) about the ETA of 5E

[Blackwarder]

Guys, don't forget that the basic game will only feature the Humans, Elves, Dwarves and Halfling coupled with the most basic versions of the Cleric, Fighter, Mage and Rogue, and I think that these are pretty much done, Especialy considering the fact that the basic game won't use feats, skills and subclasses, so it's isn't out of the question for WotC to launch a basic game set before the launch of the holy trinity, if only to make sure that their most basic stuff works as intended.

Warder

 

[Echohawk]

Greg Blisland announced it during the 25 Hours of Dungeons & Dragons! Extra Life Marathon event.

Thanks!

 

[Tortoise]

If I recall correctly WotC said they still had to work out the math, however aside from that, everything should be done for basic. Once the math is settled a basic set should be easy to publish and have out either before or at the time of GenCon.

 

[MortalPlague]

It's a tough call, whether to rush for a 2014 release or not. We don't know the state of the rules, we don't know if they're 50% done or 95% done right now. So this whole post is just speculation. But for the sake of argument, let's say they're about 50-60% done.

If they rush the ruleset for a 2014 release, they will have a bigger release. They'll be trading on the 40th anniversary celebration, which is a huge draw for free publicity, and interest from people who might otherwise not notice a D&D launch. On the flip side, this might require them to rush the rules. Errors might slip through which would otherwise be caught. Broken combos might come to light which require a 'patch'. This strategy might end up with a 5.5 edition three or four years down the line.

If they give the ruleset a longer time to gestate, say into 2015, they will have a smaller release. The sales numbers for the game might not be so big, and they might never reach the numbers they could have had with a 2014 release. The hobby will be smaller as a result. But the ruleset would be stronger, and hopefully wouldn't require any kind of fix down the line. The edition could last longer as a result.

I don't think there is a right answer here. I just hope we don't end up with a rushed product at the end of all this.

 

[Sword of Spirit]

Okay, let me explain from a design standpoint how stuff works.

Remember when Mike Mearls was saying after the second playtest packet that the fighter was "in good shape"? He meant it. He thought they had the basic idea and general mechanics worked out. Then further design and analysis happened. They've gone through dozens of versions of the fighter since then--only a fraction of which we've seen, and the current version doesn't look much like the second packet version.

You can't just add rules and change select subsystems without altering other parts of the game and having to go back and revise them. You just can't do it.

If you haven't done game design, you probably have no idea how many ideas get a reasonable level of development, seem right, and then are totally scrapped, taking with them other systems that were connected to them. Skilled design can minimize the collateral damage, but not eliminate it. It's just part of the process.

When they have all the content they have planned for the PHB, DMG, and MM, (including core modular options) locked in, at which time they will also have preliminary work on additional books and subsystems well on its way, then they have the game sufficiently prepared that they could put out a basic set prior to putting out the 3 standard books, without much fear of changing the game between the basic set and the standard books. Not before then.

I'm not sure how far along the internal playtests are--but the fact that they are still looking at the results from a massive public playtest survey, and that they actually do change the rules in response to these surveys, implies that the design is still very much in flux. Some parts of the system are pretty locked in. For instance, they are unlikely to substantially change the quasi-vancian casting, the basic rules for attacks, checks, and saves, or the general concept of feats. There are other things, however, that very well might be completely revised. Take the skill system that has gone all over the place, the ranger who wakes up a new man each packet, or races that we have been arguing about for the entire playtest, and just this last survey were finally asked about individually after not mentioning them for close to a year!

Part of playtesting advanced modules (the ones that won't come out with the PHB, DMG, and MM) is to see if they will work with the standard game. They are going to have to test some of these before they set the standard game in stone, and then they have to refine the details of the standard game.

How long will it take? I can't say, because I'm not on the design time (or internal playtesting). But I can say that anything before GenCon 2014 is going to be unpolished offal. If they are doing a good job (which they are capable of) they can probably pull it off by Christmas 2014. GenCon 2014 would be a real gamble.

If we give them enough time, I think we'll be pleasantly surprised at the quality of the rules, even those who personally don't favor them. If they rush it, we'll get crap, even to those of us who favor the direction of the edition.

 

[GX.Sigma]

I think they'd be crazy not to release a "D&D: Anniversary Edition" in 2014 (not that I want them to--it sucks when the intro product doesn't have the same rules as the core product, as Essentials showed). But the Player's Handbook (or even the Basic set)? I don't think it's anywhere close to ready.

 

[Majoru Oakheart]

I still maintain that it is very silly to release a book trilogy and an adventure trilogy about the conversion of the Realms over to 5e and have them both end in February but not release a product in the 5e line for nearly a year later. Plus, essentially killing all value of DDI in January. There may be a number of people buying pdfs but the vast majority of people are waiting for a 5e release.

Our group played through every playtest. We will likely play through the Sundering adventures and Dragonspear Castle. However, that will likely only take us until about June. After that, we will have no new D&D to play. None of our group wants to go back to playing any previous edition of D&D. So, our choice would be to either switch to a different game system(and Numenera is kind of tempting right now) or hope that something new comes out from WOTC around June/July.

 

[Olgar Shiverstone]

If WotC doesn't release at GenCon in the year of D&D's 40th anniversary, they'll be hopping on one foot wondering what caused the accidental discharge.

 

[Sword of Spirit]

There may be a number of people buying pdfs but the vast majority of people are waiting for a 5e release.

I expect that they are making *a lot* of money on those pdfs. The percentage of pure profit from those sales, compared to a print product, is huge, and it didn't take anywhere near the effort to get those products up there as it took to create new products. They haven't made any money from me, because I think pdfs should cost a lot less than they are charging. That being said, I would probably buy something like the original Planescape Campaign Setting if the put it up. I'd rather have a physical reprint of it though. There's something else they've probably made some decent money on--reprints.

 

[dd.stevenson]

Their track record is not good, unfortunately. I don't want to point the finger, but I feel that a lot of 4E's failure with regards to PR rests on Bill Slaviscek, who is no longer at WotC. So maybe they've learned their lesson...

Undoubtedly a lot of the problems with the D&D brand are Slaviscek's to own, but Dancey explicitly mentions (without naming names) a marketing VP who was let go in connection with 4E/DDI. Google tells me that there was indeed a VP of marketing, one Casey Reeter, who left WotC in 2011 for "personal reasons" and wound up "moving to Port Townsend with her husband to start a farm".