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Skill Challenges for Dummies

Tervin

First Post
Darth Cyric said:
Lower complexity reduces the likelihood of the Law of Large Numbers. Besides, the whole uproar over Skill Challenges is a classic case of Gambler's Fallacy.

Look at the math in that other thread. Then please point out where Gambler's Fallacy comes into play. I would love to know where, as I have a few hundred former students I need to alert. After all, you are saying that mathematical formulas taught in high schools and universities are wrong.

Gambler's Fallacy can only come into play if you draw hasty conclusions based on individual cases. Not when you simulate a whole processs through a large number of iterations, or set up a formula that calculates the probability of every relevant case. Guess what? People did both the simulations and the formulas in that other thread. And got the same correct answers to the questions that were asked.

What the OP in this thread claims is that the wrong questions were asked. I think that is because he only looked at one of the problems that were investigated in that thread.
 

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two

First Post
AtomicPope said:
There is a great deal of miscommunication going around these boards concerning Skill Challenges. All of it comes from inadequate reading and comprehension of the material. I’d like to start by abolishing a myth of Skill Challenges:


The above information is correct but it is hopelessly incomplete. This is understandable considering it's a new system. It's important to keep in mind that Characters gain access to Skill Modifiers from myriad sources other than Skill Training, half-level, and Stat Modifier which brings their total skill far beyond what is being presented here.

There is no need for mathematical models to support a new system of challenges if you understand the current system. Utility Powers are made to work with Skill Challenges improving the success rate of each individual group member by 25% or more. I played in sanctioned WotC 4e games prior to release and quickly discovered that Utility Powers were key in overcoming Skill Challenges. In addition, all characters have access to Magic Items which significantly increase their chance of success with a given skill. Powers and Items are integral to the design of all 4e target numbers, be it Defenses or Skill Checks. Not understanding this is the acme of failure in Fourth Edition.

Useful Negotiation Utilities
The sample Skill Challenge, found on page 76 of the DMG, gives a simplified example of what a Skill Challenge looks like. Here is a short list of Utility Powers that are useful in The Negotiation sample Skill Challenge:

Cleric
Good Omens – Utility 12: (targets you and each ally in 10 squares) Targets gain +5 Power Bonus to all D20 rolls until the end of your next turn, but the targets cannot score critical hits while this is in effect.

Paladin
Astral Speech – Utility 2: You gain a +4 power bonus to Diplomacy checks until the end of the encounter.
One Heart, One Mind – Utility 6: Until the end of the encounter targets can communicate telepathically with each other out to a range of 20 squares, and your aid another actions give a +4 bonus instead of a +2.

Ranger
Crucial Advice – Utility 2: Grant one ally the ability to reroll the skill check, with a power bonus equal to your Wisdom Modifier.
Skilled Companion – Utility 6: An ally within 10 squares of you who attempts an untrained check with a skill in which you are trained gains a power bonus equal to your Wisdom modifier. Lasts until the end of the encounter.

Rogue
Master of Deceit – Utility 2: Free Action. Reroll a Bluff check.
Mob Mentality – Utility 6: Close Burst 10. Targets gain a +2 bonus to Charisma based skills and ability checks until the end of your next turn.

Warlock
Beguiling Tongue – Utility 2: You gain a +5 power bonus to Bluff, Diplomacy, or Intimidate checks until the end of this encounter.
Dark One’s Own Luck – Utility 6: Reroll the attack roll, skill check, ability check, or saving throw, using the higher of the two results.

Useful Magic Items in a Skill Challenge
There are also a great number of magic items that improve the skills of characters. Unlike 3e, characters other than Rogues have access to tools that provide bonuses for skill intensive situations. For the Negotiation the characters involved would benefit from:
• Circlet of Authority – Level 7: Gain a +2 item bonus to Diplomacy checks and Intimidate checks.
• Diadem of Acuity – Level 8: Gain a +2 item bonus to Insight checks.

Optimal Negotiation
The key to any skill challenge is to inform the players. Continuing with The Negotiation example, any group containing several of the characters with the utility powers described and a magic item should have a significantly better chance to succeed. The original quote was concerned with a 50% failure rate yet never bothered with reading into the design of 4e as described in PHB, DMG, Races and Classes or Worlds and Monsters, which explicited stated that Items and Powers are part of every facet in 4e design. Adding a single magic item and using a simple Utility Power can reduce failure by 35% per individual, while creating an even lower risk of failure using Aid Other and Powers allowing rerolls. Skill Challenges are intended to drain PC's of their resources (Utility Powers) in order to succeed. This is no accident.

In The Negotiation if a party included Bob Marley the Paladin with One Heart, One Mind Utility Power (stupid name, useful power) they could work together telepathically and succeed in convincing the Baron to aid them – no surprises there. Skilled characters would be aided to have anywhere from a +4 to a +16 bonus to skilled checks – failing only on a one. Considering that many parties will include at least a Rogue, Ranger or Warlock they will have several utilities at their disposal to aid them in The Negotiation. A Warlock with Beguiling Tongue would be invaluable to any Diplomatic Skill Challenge, gaining an additional +5 power bonus to every skill check possible. Trained skill checks made by a Beguiling Warlock could have a 75% or greater success rate not including Item bonuses. Any party that includes a half-elf improves the entire party’s Diplomacy skill (racial power) while adding another skilled negotiator in their own right.

Failures in a Skill Challenge
Based on several accounts read on these and other forums I’ve noticed many reasons for Skill Challenge failure rested in the gamers themselves. There is a nasty habit of DM’s to immediately say NO whenever an opportunity presents itself. In 4e this is wrong. That might have been fine in previous editions but it’s time to learn from past mistakes and move on. The entire core of 4e is built on saying yes. The Skill Challenge system allows for creativity which can only exist if the DM follows the rules and says yes, however reluctant (DMG pg 28 and 73).

A Simple Game
One game I played in involved a Skill Challenge where we were being chased by city guards - Urban Chase. Playing a Dragonborn Paladin, I used the Intimidate skill saying, “I’ll scare the onlookers outside of this alley so they won’t tell the city guard which way we went. If you tell the guards anything I’ll kill you! just to rattle them and give us time.” Sure it wasn’t a listed skill for the challenge (making it a Hard DC) but as a Dragonborn Paladin trained in Intimidate the odds weren’t completely against me. Using Intimidate allowed me to try a different skill with a better chance of success then if I had tried Athletics (Full Plate and Heavy Shield is a -4!) and I received a +2 bonus for creativity because that’s just the sort of thing that happens in a police chase. The Warlord continued with the Cops schtick by bashing a door down allowing us to take a short cut through some stranger’s house (making a Str Check to aid rather than the Skill Check). The DM then gave the Rogue a +4 bonus on Streetwise to help us lose the guards (+2 for aid and +2 for having a good idea). The challenges taught me to be dynamic, open to change and reasonable.

Success in Skill Challenges
1) Inform the Players – Our DM was very clear on what skills would be most useful. He encouraged us to review our characters and think of other skills that would be equally as useful. The worst thing a DM can do is half-ass. Giving players inadequate information will certainly lead to failure, confusion and frustration. If the players don’t know what the Challenge entails they’ll choose the wrong skills, waste their Utility Powers or won’t phrase their ideas for secondary skills properly and accrue penalties.
2) Be Open Minded – DM's cannot be too adversarial because they're holding all the cards. It's important to keep in mind that some characters will be completely useless in a certain Skill Challenge. By allowing them to use their best Skills you can give them an opportunity to do something other than grant a +2 aid bonus. Also, a Hard DC isn’t that hard to a character specialized in a particular skill. You could be preventing a character from using a trained skill with a +2 racial bonus, +2 item bonus (or more), +3 feat bonus and a +5 power bonus (or more). Yes, that’s at least +17 before stat modifiers and levels are included! By saying no a clever PC just missed their opportunity to shine (and the party probably just racked up another failure).
3) Reward Clever Ideas – Just because it’s a Skill Challenge doesn’t mean that only skills are allowed. Characters should also be able to make ability checks if the situation calls for it. When our Warlord broke down the door we all cheered. We had 4 failures (three in a row) and only 7 successes. That put us back on track and made it possible for us to escape. By presenting reasonable ways in which a skill could be useful we received a +2 bonus. This doesn’t mean rewarding a player who says, “I use knowledge Nature.” This is where players must also pull their weight. Ideas must be compelling otherwise you’ll end up with a penalty for being lame.

As others have said, the problems with skill challenges are many, as currently presented. Your comments are interesting but don't "fix" much.

1) Extremely experienced gamers can't figure out what numbers should be used in a skill challenge, and what bonuses should be allowed. At the very least, this should be spelled out in detail. If the members of EnWorld can't get this stuff nailed down, how does WOTC expect the general gaming public to handle it?

2) Your examples showing different ways to get bonuses on skill checks is very interesting, but how does it relate to, you know, an average party? At low or high level? How many PC's take utility powers like you have listed? And what levels are they accessible?

It's not very convincing to argue that "skill challenges are not tough if every PC in the party is optimized to overcome skill challenges."

That is likely very true. But if that covers only 5% of "normal" PC parties... well, at least they should tell us that, and make suggestions for how to get skill challenges in-line with non min/maxxed skill parties.

I'm not sure if Skill Challenges are "fundamentally" messed up. I suspect so. But I do know with 100% certainty that WOTC should have done a much better job presenting and explaining them, with 2-3 full examples.
 

Darth Cyric

First Post
SableWyvern said:
Since the thread you are referring to is only discussing the likely outcome of a skill challenge as it stands before the challenge has begun, there cannot possibly be any Gambler's Fallacy.
Which is not how you're supposed to discuss it in the first place. The whole approach is from the wrong angle.
 

Tervin

First Post
Having some spare time right now, and wanting an excuse to dive into the books, I looked through the powers and magic items in the PH.

There are only 12 utility powers that directly boost skill checks in the PH. Some of them are very specific and unlikely to come into play very often in a skill challenge, some are general. Most of them will only boost one or a few rolls, which is a good thing for the system as it means that they will be more useful to low complexity challenges. There are several other utility powers that might come into play if they fit the challenge, the player is creative and the DM is in a good mood.

On the other hand there are 30 magic items that give skill check bonuses, up towards twice as many if you count different versions of the same item. Those items generally give a constant bonus to certain skills, which means that they will have to be accounted for when setting the DC levels for a skill challenge, but they won't help with the complexity problem.

As a DM this tells me that I really have to keep track of the players' skill bonuses including relevant items if I want to set the DCs right for challenges. (The math quickly turns ugly if you get it just a few points wrong.) Also that utility powers might sometimes help me in my struggle to make complex challenges as good as possible in my game.

I want to add a couple of things, because they seem to matter to people. I really, really like 4th Edition D&D. If I put all this effort into going on and on about the bad bits of a part of the new system, it is because I want it to be as good as it can be, instead of that smudge in the corner of that painting you love that you fight to ignore every time you look at it.

Also, I love the concept of skill challenges. There are other parts in the new D&D that I think are weaker points in the design, but I can simply ignore those because they are not part of what I want to do with the game. But because I love the concept of skill challenges I also want to be able to love them in play. And I am not able to do that if they seem like they are based on some unfortunate math, and come with bad instructions.

So, I am not trying to be mean here. I promise. :)
 

SableWyvern

Adventurer
Darth Cyric said:
Which is not how you're supposed to discuss it in the first place. The whole approach is from the wrong angle.

Would you care to actually explain why this is, and what the Gambler's Fallacy has to do with it? You may well have a valid point, but the terse comments you've made so far just make is sound like you're throwing random terminology around with no real idea what you're actually talking about.
 

hong

WotC's bitch
two said:
As others have said, the problems with skill challenges are many, as currently presented. Your comments are interesting but don't "fix" much.

1) Extremely experienced gamers can't figure out what numbers should be used in a skill challenge, and what bonuses should be allowed. At the very least, this should be spelled out in detail. If the members of EnWorld can't get this stuff nailed down, how does WOTC expect the general gaming public to handle it?

I don't really see what there is to explain. The DM designs the challenge, as laid out in the books. The players choose their skills, powers and items, as laid out in the books. They run through the skill challenge, and (according to AtomicPope, at least) it all works.
 

two

First Post
SableWyvern said:
Would you care to actually explain why this is, and what the Gambler's Fallacy has to do with it? You may well have a valid point, but the terse comments you've made so far just make is sound like you're throwing random terminology around with no real idea what you're actually talking about.

This.
 

Darth Cyric

First Post
Tervin said:
Look at the math in that other thread. Then please point out where Gambler's Fallacy comes into play. I would love to know where, as I have a few hundred former students I need to alert. After all, you are saying that mathematical formulas taught in high schools and universities are wrong.
No, I am not, and neither is the coin-toss illustration of Gambler's fallacy. The illustration clearly acknowledges that the probability of flipping five heads in a row is 1/32. But where the fallacy lies is believing that if you succeeded an x number of times more than the math should dictate, the next result MUST be a failure to balance it out. And it just doesn't work that way. Just because you somehow flipped heads four times in a row does not mean that you all of a sudden have a 1/32 (or less) chance of flipping heads again.

It's not a matter of the math being wrong. It's not wrong. But it IS a matter of the math not telling the whole story.
 
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hong

WotC's bitch
Tervin said:
There are only 12 utility powers that directly boost skill checks in the PH. Some of them are very specific and unlikely to come into play very often in a skill challenge, some are general. Most of them will only boost one or a few rolls, which is a good thing for the system as it means that they will be more useful to low complexity challenges. There are several other utility powers that might come into play if they fit the challenge, the player is creative and the DM is in a good mood.

One might argue that the entire DMG is written from the perspective of ensuring that the DM is in as good a mood as possible, what with things like "say yes" and stuff.

On the other hand there are 30 magic items that give skill check bonuses, up towards twice as many if you count different versions of the same item. Those items generally give a constant bonus to certain skills, which means that they will have to be accounted for when setting the DC levels for a skill challenge,

Why? You take the PCs' level into account, what you want the skill challenge to achieve, its general significance as a part of the adventure and ongoing storyline, and so on. Scaling up difficulty just because the PCs have items that make skill checks easier just means you're back to a red queen-style setup.

but they won't help with the complexity problem.

There is a complexity problem only if you conflate complexity with difficulty. The complexity of a challenge should be a function of its significance within the context of the adventure as well as general believability concerns. If it's vitally important that the players win this challenge, or if the basic objective is something that would reasonably take a long time, then it's a complex challenge.
 

hong

WotC's bitch
Darth Cyric said:
No, I am not, and neither is the coin-toss illustration of Gambler's fallacy. The illustration clearly acknowledges that the probability of flipping five heads in a row is 1/32. But where the fallacy lies is believing that if you succeeded an x number of times more than the math should dictate, the next result MUST be a failure to balance it out. And it just doesn't work that way.

It's not a matter of the math being wrong. It's not wrong. But it IS a matter of the math not telling the whole story.
And where has anyone made the assumption that skill check results must balance each other out?
 

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