We are discussing synergies that give a bonus to hit, not any other types of synergies.
actually this is you attempting to hijack the thread and pigeonhole it in some tangential space where you can rant about your version of the "real math".
Are you claiming that 30th level groups have the same number of these types of synergies as 1st level groups?
are you claiming it's not more likely that a 30th level encounter will put debilitating effects on the pc's that block them from gaining use of said synergies?
Are you claiming that 30th level groups have the same to hit boost of these types of synergies as 1st level groups?
ae you ignoring that getting these synergies into play will be much harder vs teleporting, flying, insubstantial creatures with action points and a host of debilitating effects?
There are 17 powers in the PHB that give a bonus to an attack roll. Most of those are not available at level one.
and this is relevant how? how many powers are there on monsters that cause penalties to attack? how many are available at level 1?
Most prestige classes have a way to increase their chance to hit. Sure, many of those are limited, but they do exist.
I assume you mean paragon paths not prestige classes. Are you proposing that you must take these in order to be effective?
There are dozens and dozens of powers in the PHB that shift allies or foes or knock foes prone that increase the frequency of Combat Advantage alone. High level PCs can get Combat Advantage on a significantly higher percentage of attacks.
so can high level monsters. In fact I would argue it's massively harder to gain combat advantage repeatedly against a lot of the high level monsters because they liberally hand out daze and stun effects and they have powerful move abilities that let them avoid being out maneuvered.
There are higher level abilities that give an increase in the number of action points. That equates to an increase in the number of PC attacks.
which is directly offset by the increase in similar abilities among high level monsters. Above a certain level the proportion of monsters that have repeated ways to attack more than one pc per round sky rockets.
There are higher level abilities that allow for an attack re-roll. That equates to an increase in the number of successful PC attacks.
Everything you're saying would be fine if the party continued to fight gobins and orcs but they move on to giants, devils, dragons and orcus. The game scales nicely if you're paying attention. you seem to believe that only the pc's capabilities get better. take a look at all the aura's and debilitating effects high level creatures have. They almost all have a way to push, pull, knock prone, daze, stun, immobilize or add ongoing dmg.
Take a look at level 25 death knight. has an aura 10 that gives undead +2 to ATT. This is pretty synergistic and requires no powers. He also has a minor challenge that's better than any challenge pc's get. He's got a burst two power that does 41 avg dmg and pumps undead dmg by 7 (including his own) for a turn and it's rechargeable. He can push a defender 5 squares and prevent him approaching him even while marking you in a way that makes you suffer greatly in attacking others. He has attacks that get pumped by adjacent allies (the same allies he's pumping with +2 ATT and +7 dmg). what low level creature matches this for synergies? I didn't look around, I just picked one monster at level 25. I'm sure there are some with more powers and some with less but the point being bad guys powers scale too.
There is no doubt about it. The chance to hit decreases over 29 levels compared to the defenses: stat increase (4) + magic (6) + 15 < 29. But, it is only true that this is a serious problem if one ignores the additional to hit synergies gained over those levels.
It is a serious problem since the game is based upon this not happening and th feat widens the potential gap between optimized and non optimized characters. You put your blinders on here and steam roll forward.
Your position is pretty much this:
PC's should have a decreasing ability to hit because they have more powers/options/synergies.
Shouldn't the corallary be:
Monsters should have a decreasing chance to hit because they have more powers/options/synergies?
Nobody is disputing the decrease change in to hit math here, it is a matter of disputing the frequency of higher level to hit synergies. A +3 to hit boost at higher level breaks the math a lot here: stat increase (4) + magic (6) + 15 + 3 is still < 29, but it is only less than it by one. There are a many ways to get synergy boosts >=1 at high levels that do not exist at low level.
FOR BOTH TEAMS.
A PC minmaxed a bit (even without Expertise) for to hit can get his same level chance to hit into the 60% to 70% range at high level (20 starting stat, Kensai, Demigod, Fighter class, etc. is +5 greater than the example I gave above and takes that same level example to 70% hit chance). Expertise takes such a PC consistently into the 75+% to 85% range for same level opponents. That's not balanced either.
First no pc can reach 85% hit chance consistently. Second 4e is not solely about same level encounters. There are also a lot of creatures that can work that low will defense fighter into a puddle of goo.
And, the fact that people ignore that many higher level foes are solos blows me away. Sure, the NPC might get as many as 3 or even 4 attacks in, but the PCs at those levels can get 5 to 10 attacks in depending on situation. With the number of additional conditions that can occur on a PC attack, the odds are definitely in the favor of the PCs.
This speaks to encounter design, and future releases of monster manuals.
PS. Search the web for people who have played at high level. The general consensus that I have heard so far is that high level is fairly easy. There are just too many ways to pound enemies and assist allies, keeping the action economy in favor of the PCs.
high level dnd has always been problematic. A lot of this is because frequently the people who love playing at the top levels are munchkins with a soft dm. DnD loses some or all of it's appeal for a lot of players above mid levels. I'm definitely in that camp. There are other problems beyond this. High level campaigns sometimes start at mid to low high level (i.e. build a 18th level pc and begin adventuring) this usually means the pc's got to spend X number of gold on magic items that exactly fit their optimization model. No found treasures that work well but aren't the 100% best choice for that build. You're also ignoring the fact that a lot of players argue that combats are pitifully easy at low levels too. You already repeatedly ignored the fact that because of the current math there are a lot of almost unwinable encounters out there that include an n+6 monster or an n+3 solo. you have no answer for this other than to cry that the encounter design is flawed. which is your argument for mostly everything "it doesn't match/support my position, therefore the designer is stupid or the rule is flawed/broken"
The stuff I've seen from people who appeared to _actually_ be playing the game without trying to break it were a lot fewer and far between and ran the gamut.
great point.
Assuming they have equal enhancement bonuses and they both increase strenght when possible and that neither take paragon paths boosting attack (all reasonable assumptions) then this diffference in attacks will never exceed +3.
which is already problematic but not broken.
If the expertise feat is introduced to the game and the optimizer (B) takes it then at level 25 this attack difference will be +6, instead of +3.
which really is the point of this thread. Someone will take this making it mandatory for everyone to take it.
If you want to get non-theoretical,
lead the attack is a warlord daily 1 that, if it hits, can radically change the expected outcome of a solo encounter. I've seen it happen many times (and I weep for my poor solos

).
hardly broken. almost every level 1 daily has encounter changing possibilities. sphere and armor of ag "win" a lot more encounters than lead the attack. Admittedly it's awesome if it hits if you're facing a solo. How often is that? If 20% of encounters are solo's it's awesome about 10% of the time. My experience is that encounters are about 10% solos.
Granted, that's just one power, and it's a daily, and it has to hit first, and it's really only good against solos and tough elites... but it's level 1. If there's crazy stuff like that at level 1, I have no problem believing that there is crazier stuff by level 30.
-- 77IM
But there's crazier stuff for the monsters too.
Ok, I went and made a hard encounter for a level 22 party (it's a level 25 encounter 35,500 exp). There aren't a lot of choices yet in the standard monster so thematically I wouldn't use this encounter as is, I would modify the creatures to fit more elegantly together (i.e. make them all fire creatures instead of three somewhat disparate groups.) but concentrate on the stats/abilities not the theme issue.
Doresain, the Ghoul King Level 27 Elite Skirmisher (22,000 exp)
Fire Archon Ash Disciple Level 20 Artillery x 3 (8400 exp 2800 each)
Earthwind Ravager Level 23 controller (5100 exp)
so we have an L+5 BBEG, an L+1 controller and 3 L-2 artillery, not exactly terrifying encounter wise, there's a template that calls for 3 N+2's and 2 N+4's on page 59 of the dmg so this seems right inline with the design concept.
lets take a look at how their synergies might compile and you can decide if epic is too easy...
keep in mind an average level 22 defense value for pc's is in the 36-37 AC 30-33 for NAD's range. ATT values will likely be in the +22 range +25 vs AC.
First if all the creatures are fire creatures, the 3 artillery have teleport 20 as a move action as long as they end up within 3 of another fire creature. Makes pinning them down pretty tough. They can run the party melee types around in circles. Doresain has a std action that lets him basically run through the entire party (at least 4-5 targets) making a +30 vs AC attack that inflicts slow sv ends (this should hit 3-4 pc's) and it's rechargeable. It does 15 avg dmg. he can also teleport 12 and is speed 8 so even without the slow effects it's difficult to pin these guys down. his defenses are very formidable all in the 41 to 43 range except will38. His normal attacks are not particularly powerful but he has 500+ HP and the party will have trouble hitting him. He can recharge the frenzy attack and until then he will still melee pretty successfully with a +32 vs AC attack that does weak damage but 10 ongoing.
Meanwhile the ravager (firewind ravager after modifications) has a ranged 5 attack that is sustain minor and hits at +26 vs fort. This is an at will that once it hits will lock down one pc with immobilize for the price of the ravagers minor. It does 4d8 on the attack and 2d8 on the minor with no attack roll and no save to escape. If this is dropped on a melee focused pc the only way to get him out is via teleport or pushing the ravager beyond 5 squares (he'll then try and hit him again and lock him down some more) He's also got a rechargeable close blast 3 that inflicts stun and a respectable 26 avg dmg and his regular attack is a +26 vs fort reach two attack that does 19. he has 200+hps. The artillery while having the lowest chance to hit (will benefit from creatures being stunned for ca) are very hard to catch and hurt. Their range coupled with speed 8 and teleport 20 will allow them to almost invariably choose the range at which the combat takes place. They have lots of ongoing damage effects and bursts and blasts which inflict ongoing 5 or 10 fire or blindness. They all have resistances and immunities and only doresian has a vulnerability which I would likely switch to cold instead of radiant when I changed the flavor.
I find it hard to believe a decent dm can't challenge epic characters. I would love to hear from a DM who used this encounter vs 5 level 22 pc's and let me know how it works.
If parties aren't challenged at epic I truly suspect a lot of that has to do with encounter design and poor DM'ing.