So...How are Sales of 4E Product?

[Jack99]

Okay. Here is what we know.

From Mearls (Link), we know that the initial print run is bigger than both the intial 3.0 and 3.5 print run.

Ha! We also didn't mention Gamma World or Amazing Engine, so I guess 4e didn't outsell either of those.

Print run size:

3.0 < 3.5 < 4e

From Scott, we know a bit more about the size. They filled 39 big trucks (estimates from pictures vary from 750k-2M books)

Link to thread

We know from this press release (Link) that not only was 1st print run of 4e bigger than 3.5's first print run, but a whooping 50% bigger. We also learn that this 4e print run was sold out on may 30th already. That's a week before the book was even released.

We also have an abundance of stats from amazon.com, with the 4e core books rising higher than any other roleplaying books ever have. Not to mention record spots on the NYT bestseller list. Ever seen other RPG's on that?

Then we have this, from the boss himself.

As I write this, it’s the two-month anniversary of the launch of the 4th Edition of Dungeons & Dragons. I thought I’d take a moment to tell you how we’re doing. The excitement around the new edition is still as strong as it was at launch, and we anticipate carrying that excitement through Gen Con, PAX, and beyond as new products roll out and the full scope of the power of the edition becomes evident. From a business perspective, the core rulebooks are already well into their third printing, the H1 and H2 adventures are both in reprint. The new Dungeon Tiles product, DU1 Halls of the Giant Kings, is almost gone from our inventory less than one month after going on sale. This means that, using the current trends, we’re going to crush our original projections for 4th Edition in 2008!

Now, put that together, and to me, it spells success.

 

[Mustrum_Ridcully]

Okay. Here is what we know.

From Mearls (Link), we know that the initial print run is bigger than both the intial 3.0 and 3.5 print run.



From Scott, we know a bit more about the size. They filled 39 big trucks (estimates from pictures vary from 750k-2M books)

Link to thread

We know from this press release (Link) that not only was 1st print run of 4e bigger than 3.5's first print run, but a whooping 50% bigger. We also learn that this 4e print run was sold out on may 30th already. That's a week before the book was even released.

We also have an abundance of stats from amazon.com, with the 4e core books rising higher than any other roleplaying books ever have. Not to mention record spots on the NYT bestseller list. Ever seen other RPG's on that?

Then we have this, from the boss himself.




Now, put that together, and to me, it spells success.

Sorry, but all this evidence sounds too good to be true! I bet the sales drop immediately after the last post in this regard, and the later books don't sell at all, and that we just don't see any books on the secondary market because people simply BURNED them angrily after reading them the first time...

D&D 4 can only loose steem after people have actually read the books!











Spelling intentional

 

[Delta]

Now, put that together, and to me, it spells success.

That's fine. But my original point was specifically regarding this: "Yet when Mearls, Rouse and Slavichek all post about how 4e is breaking all sorts of records, selling extremely well..."

So, I don't see any quotes from any of them about "selling well" or "breaking records", which seems to get bandied about a lot. From what I can tell they dance very carefully around the sales issue, talking mostly about print runs.

I'll remain skeptical that any of them actually said that sales records are being broken; I still have yet to see such a quote.

 

[Mustrum_Ridcully]

That's fine. But my original point was specifically regarding this: "Yet when Mearls, Rouse and Slavichek all post about how 4e is breaking all sorts of records, selling extremely well..."

So, I don't see any quotes from any of them about "selling well" or "breaking records", which seems to get bandied about a lot. From what I can tell they dance very carefully around the sales issue, talking mostly about print runs.

I'll remain skeptical that any of them actually said that sales records are being broken; I still have yet to see such a quote.

Actually, they don't describe it explicitly as "breaking records", but exceeding 3E print runs and exceeding their own expectations is "breaking records" - unless we assume that 3E didn't set any records (for D&D) to exceed.

Exceeding expectations automatically means "selling well", since all their economical planning will be based on their expectations, and this means they make more money then they expected. If that is not selling well, then what is?

 

[Phaezen]

That's fine. But my original point was specifically regarding this: "Yet when Mearls, Rouse and Slavichek all post about how 4e is breaking all sorts of records, selling extremely well..."

So, I don't see any quotes from any of them about "selling well" or "breaking records", which seems to get bandied about a lot. From what I can tell they dance very carefully around the sales issue, talking mostly about print runs.

I'll remain skeptical that any of them actually said that sales records are being broken; I still have yet to see such a quote.

Speaking as someone who works in publishing, a new edition of a book with an initial print run 50% higher than the previous edition, selling out a week before street date can be considered as "selling extremely well...", we would most likely use stronger language in the office.

Phaezen

 

[Khuxan]

Cool stuff. Looks like it's not blogged much about anymore, but sales are still doing fine (I wonder what the low points where - was it a time where the book was outsold? Seems unlikely, this shouldn't affect preorders much, should it? - or is it just a too small timeframe to make really sense of it?)

It's Halloween. People probably bought spooky stuff instead of D&D stuff. We know that it only takes a few dozen purchases to change sales rank by hundreds of places.

 

[Delta]

We also learn that this 4e print run was sold out on may 30th already. That's a week before the book was even released.

So multiple people are pointing to this: It was sold out before it went on sale. What exactly does that mean? The linked article uses the phrase "sell-in", as in, "Sell-in for 4th Edition turned out to be considerably higher than for 3.5".

So apparently that must not be end-customer sales, right? That's talking about orders from store owners, I presume?

But when most of us laypersons ask about "sales" we're asking about end-customer purchases, and I don't see anyone at WOTC talking about that (apparently). You can't seriously tell me that all the books were sold out before they went on sale, that's a logical contradiction.

 

[Delta]

Actually, they don't describe it explicitly as "breaking records", but exceeding 3E print runs and exceeding their own expectations is "breaking records" - unless we assume that 3E didn't set any records (for D&D) to exceed.

I agree. And they were exceedingly careful to avoid mentioning 1E/2E in those comments. The PR "smell test" here only bolsters my skepticism.

My guess is in fact that 1E still holds the PHB sales record. Despite rumor, WOTC still hasn't said otherwise, and they still haven't said 4E sales are record-breaking.

 

[Mustrum_Ridcully]

I agree. And they were exceedingly careful to avoid mentioning 1E/2E in those comments. The PR "smell test" here only bolsters my skepticism.

My guess is in fact that 1E still holds the PHB sales record. Despite rumor, WOTC still hasn't said otherwise, and they still haven't said 4E sales are record-breaking.

I really have no (good) idea how well earlier editions then 3rd might have sold. I am not sure how the market situation of RPGs was then, but don't you think the initial print runs then where smaller then they are today? Especially since today international distribution is probably a lot easier and more common (with all those ways to order your books easily via the web)

Of course, if you compare the first 6 (?) months of 4E to the entire span of 1E, I wouldn't be surprised if 1E sold more in that time. But does it make any sense to compare these different time frames?

Or do you expect that the change in sales over time to not be a consistent pattern, and be different depending on editions? But regardless of whether you do, if the pattern is inconsistent, then we don't have any data for that and can only talk about the shorter time frame 4E has been around.

 

[Jack99]

I agree. And they were exceedingly careful to avoid mentioning 1E/2E in those comments. The PR "smell test" here only bolsters my skepticism.

My guess is in fact that 1E still holds the PHB sales record. Despite rumor, WOTC still hasn't said otherwise, and they still haven't said 4E sales are record-breaking.

Didn't Dancey state that a lot of those numbers were gone when WotC bought TSR?