D&D (2024) Speculation Welcome: What's Next for D&D?

[Clint_L]

I expect that the popularity of the game will level off and then dip as the recent growth is unsustainable, and the 5e generation levels up to college and careers. Then we'll eventually see another surge as some of them come back and bring their kids, and the cycle continues. It's the circle of life.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

On the other hand, Doctor Who is 60, the X-Men are 50, Star Wars is 45, and Transformers is 40, and all of them are as culturally relevant as they were 20 years ago. We complain about the endless reboots and sequels, actors playing their beloved characters decades after they first appeared as them, and the collectable market absolutely looking like a late 90s Toys R Us. New media properties are few and far between and the current state of the media is serving up nostalgia to middle aged adults and sharing it with their children.

I'm not saying it's never going to change (geopolitical or climate catastrophe might make the latest Star Trek movie less important) but the fact that geeky things are now mainstream things and a massive part of the culture for decades isn't going away soon.

On the other hand, I see all sorts of olds baffled at the existence of the Five Nights at Freddy and Minecraft movies, seemingly unaware that those are two of the biggest cultural properties among younger folks. In our lifetime, we've already seen Harry Potter claim a huge section of the public's imagination vis-a-vis fantasy literature.

That older stuff is hanging around (because the Baby Boomers are) doesn't mean new stuff isn't moving in as well.

I do think geekiness is sticking around -- we all carry about internet terminals in our pockets at all times now and one of the ways one can show off how affluent they are is by driving an electric car festooned with cameras and touch screens -- but that doesn't require it to be the stuff that was popular in the 1970s. Even now, it's harder and harder to find young people who know Narnia, for instance, and forget about Battlestar Galactica or 1970s also-rans like Space: 1999 or Logan's Run. (Sorry, Space: 1999 superfans.)

I think some brands will stick around -- in a doomsday scenario for Hasbro, they'd sell or license the D&D brand rather than let it go silent -- but others will drift away, to be replaced by stuff that's more relevant to younger generations.

 

[Queer Venger]

Short Answer:
"Dogs and cats living together. Mass hysteria!"

Longer Answer:
Some older gamers move away to nostalgia games (OSR) or stuff promoted on old-school social media like YouTube (MCDM). Some stick to 2014 or go back to Pathfinder or 4e (like me). We introduce our players to different game systems and they don't buy into the 2024 printings - and let's be honest, they weren't the market drivers anyway.
Put this way, I GM for 11 players on a weekly basis. I purchase more content than all of them combined. Hasbro has essentially lost me as a customer - so that's 12 customers they lost. I'm not going to be running their games at conventions, game stores, programming at work, etc.

Most Longest Answer:
Nerd culture is going to retreat into the background in the next several years. No, not just because of D&D, but I think it will happen. Game of Thrones has been forgotten. Stranger Things is wrapping up this season. Superhero films have stopped rocking the box office. Comics have been dead for years. The one thing still selling is a direct competitor to D&D - and that's video games.
So we're going to see what happened during the 4e era. We're going to start losing players to Baldur's Gate and other video games just like we lost to WoW. The booming success of 5e was a fluke, and most of the players who came in are going to fade to other hobbies or adult responsibilities. Hasbro might retain 10% of the new fans they gained over the past 5 years. This will probably mean that WotC doesn't generate the income it needs to, Hasbro continues to suffer financially, and likely ends up bankrupt in the next year or so.

so sad. My group and I will pour one for your homies

 

[Retreater]

I absolutely believe Crawford, Perkins etc deeply care about RPGs the same amount as Corvelle, Baur, or Mona. There is a desire to hate WotC because it is so successful now and people will root for the successful people to fail for no other reason than spite.

I can't quantify their passion or enthusiasm by a metric other than the products they create, which I find less engaging than what Coville or Mona makes.

 

[TheSword]

Ive played several WotC 5E adventures and BAR NONE 3rd party stuff I've played has been better. From the art to the story. I honestly don't know how they keep coming in subpar in their own game when it comes to adventures which should be the bread and butter.

But i also know, most people don't look outside of official products and thus don't know any better. I suppose as long as they are having fun thats what counts

What 3rd party campaign is better than Curse of Strahd? What 3 party adventure anthology is better than Yawning Portal?

Genuinely interested, because I’ve played a lot of 3pp campaigns as they have generally been different not better. (Except for The Enemy Within remastered but then that’s a different system not 3pp)

 

[TheSword]

I can't quantify their passion or enthusiasm by a metric other than the products they create, which I find less engaging than what Coville or Mona makes.

What adventure has Matt Coleville written?

 

[cranberry]

I've seen mention of geek culture becoming mainstream being good for the hobby, but it may not be.

Remember when craft beer was a niche product? Remember the excitement and enthusiasm?

Now that craft beer is mainstream, sales have plateaued and it's becoming harder to get the consumer really engaged.

Of course they are completely different products, but it's a good example of how bringing things mainstream isn't always the path to sustainable success.

 

[Remathilis]

I can't quantify their passion or enthusiasm by a metric other than the products they create, which I find less engaging than what Coville or Mona makes.

Which of course is a totally subjective measurement, akin to measuring Taylor Swift's passion for music by how much you like her songs. You can dislike the product without disrespecting the creator.

 

[Remathilis]

I've seen mention of geek culture becoming mainstream being good for the hobby, but it may not be.

Remember when craft beer was a niche product? Remember the excitement and enthusiasm?

Now that craft beer is mainstream, sales have plateaued and it's becoming harder to get the consumer really engaged.

Of course they are completely different products, but it's a good example of how bringing things mainstream isn't always the path to sustainable success.

It's a tale as old as time; a group gets together due to passion for something, a scene forms, it gets popular, gets bigger and more diverse, and eventually people accuse the community of selling out and miss the startup indie days when it was just about the music, man...

 

[DarkCrisis]

On the other hand, I see all sorts of olds baffled at the existence of the Five Nights at Freddy and Minecraft movies, seemingly unaware that those are two of the biggest cultural properties among younger folks. In our lifetime, we've already seen Harry Potter claim a huge section of the public's imagination vis-a-vis fantasy literature.

That older stuff is hanging around (because the Baby Boomers are) doesn't mean new stuff isn't moving in as well.

I do think geekiness is sticking around -- we all carry about internet terminals in our pockets at all times now and one of the ways one can show off how affluent they are is by driving an electric car festooned with cameras and touch screens -- but that doesn't require it to be the stuff that was popular in the 1970s. Even now, it's harder and harder to find young people who know Narnia, for instance, and forget about Battlestar Galactica or 1970s also-rans like Space: 1999 or Logan's Run. (Sorry, Space: 1999 superfans.)

I think some brands will stick around -- in a doomsday scenario for Hasbro, they'd sell or license the D&D brand rather than let it go silent -- but others will drift away, to be replaced by stuff that's more relevant to younger generations.

To be fair, the first FNAF game was pretty good and they got worse and worse and the movie was hot garbage. Yes I watched it once it hit streaming on Peacock.