D&D 4E The Business of 4ed Part I: The Problem

[HatWearingFool]

And yet during the time when TSR royally screwed D&D up...White Wolf(with a brand new game line) was there to continue the industry. Not saying it would be them again, but I find it hard to accept...after seeing this happen...that the industry itself would collapse.

White-Wolf didn't keep the stores open, Magic The CCG did. It took D&D 3E to bring RPG's back.

 

[HatWearingFool]

You mean *game* stores?

Maybe it's different in other places but around here, the game stores have far more non-D&D product than D&D product. Besides the other RPGs, things like card games, minis games, and even board games have pushed D&D *way* to the side.

Nah - if D&D goes away, they might notice a little, but no where near what you're suggesting.

Yes lots of stores sell many things besides RPG's. But in that case the question becomes if D&D goes away will they make enough money from RPG's to keep that section open anymore? Is that section viable without D&D? Obviously I don't know the answer but I bet the answer is no in many stores. I mean it almost has to be, look at the sales numbers. D&D simply sales more than all other RPG's combined. A lot more. Maybe not in every store but in most of them. The sales numbers tell us this is how it goes. I mean if the other games sold more in most stores or even half they would be competing (in money) with D&D but they aren't. It's not even close.

So what if 2% of game stores can keep an RPG section without D&D. How long will the industry remain viable if only 2% of games stores carry RPG's?

 

[Imaro]

White-Wolf didn't keep the stores open, Magic The CCG did. It took D&D 3E to bring RPG's back.

What? We are talking about the rpg industry right? I bet any amount of money that Star Wars minis, D&D minis and CCG's are what keep FLGS going even now. How does that dispute the fact that WW kept the industry of rpg's going at that time?

I would even argue that WW brought in it's own subset of people who weren't into D&D and created their own fanbase, again with the fact that they didn't have the brand recognition of D&D at the time. I know it was during this time I saw WW product in mainstream bookstores that rivaled and even surpassed D&D's presence at the time.

 

[Cadfan]

How many RPG stores could remain open without D&D? I'm betting not many. When TSR was tanking Magic filled this revenue gap.

I am familiar with about a dozen gaming stores in a total of three urban centers. Not one of them sells RPG books as their primary merchandise. Miniature gaming, card games, and comic books all seem to make up the majority of their merchandise and sales. Why? Probably because once you've bought a book for an RPG, it lasts forever. All those other items are collectible.

Another point to consider is just how many people start with D&D and then move to another system? I'm betting most of other companies customers started with D&D and then moved (or played another in addition to D&D). D&D is the gateway into the hobby for most players.

I do agree with this.

But all this talk about "what would happen if D&D died??" is a bit pointless. D&D isn't going to die. 4e is going to be fine. Some grognards might not like it, but frankly they don't matter very much. There aren't that many of them, and their much vaunted ability to introduce new players to the game is mostly farcical. If a new player comes to a gaming group and asks to play, and a grognard helps them, then yeah, the grognard helped, but if the grognard hadn't been there the player would have still joined the group. I doubt that people who wouldn't have played were it not for the grognards intervention make up more than a tiny fraction of D&D players as a whole.

New players are going to evaluate D&D based more on the test of "is it fun?" and "are there people around to play with?" The answer to these questions seems likely to be yes, so 4e will sell just fine.

Gamers need to start accepting that no game is a permanent thing. The typical game arises, has an arc of gameplay during which people purchase lots of the product, enjoy it, tell their friends about it... and eventually stop because they've got all they need to buy. The game then slowly dies out, and becomes unsupported. And once they're unsupported, that's their permanent death. They'll get played a little bit at conventions by the older players, but other than these lingering zombies that's the end of their lifespan. A few games are powerful enough in the market to surpass this- but they do so by releasing new editions.

This is the way things go. Its the same in the computer game industry. Its the same in the miniature gaming industry. Its the same in the card game industry. Any game which relies on a fandom which purchases its products on a regular basis follows this pattern.

Tis life. Don't like it, quit gaming.

 

[HatWearingFool]

What? We are talking about the rpg industry right? I bet any amount of money that Star Wars minis, D&D minis and CCG's are what keep FLGS going even now. How does that dispute the fact that WW kept the industry of rpg's going at that time?

I would even argue that WW brought in it's own subset of people who weren't into D&D and created their own fanbase, again with the fact that they didn't have the brand recognition of D&D at the time. I know it was during this time I saw WW product in mainstream bookstores that rivaled and even surpassed D&D's presence at the time.

See my post above yours. Sure most store get most of there money from other sources, but there is a certain critical mass needed to maintaining the RPG market place. At some point RPG's just aren't worth the trouble for stores period. If you lose most of your revenue from that section it'll get cut.

EDIT: Right now and for the foreseeable future D&D provides the critical mass that the rest of the market piggy-backs onto.

Also just to make clear I don't think D&D is going anywhere. I started this line of reason a few days ago in response to a poster who said that he wanted to see 4E fail. I just don't think he/she had thought this through very well. I think people unhappy with 4E are better served by it being successful. At least then their will be an industry left and someone will make the game they want.

 

[Stormtower]

Some grognards might not like it, but frankly they don't matter very much. There aren't that many of them, and their much vaunted ability to introduce new players to the game is mostly farcical. If a new player comes to a gaming group and asks to play, and a grognard helps them, then yeah, the grognard helped, but if the grognard hadn't been there the player would have still joined the group. I doubt that people who wouldn't have played were it not for the grognards intervention make up more than a tiny fraction of D&D players as a whole.

New players are going to evaluate D&D based more on the test of "is it fun?" and "are there people around to play with?" The answer to these questions seems likely to be yes, so 4e will sell just fine.

I have no way of quantifying this thought into real statistics, but many of the grognards you are so quick to dismiss are established GMs. Without good GMs (in D&D or any PnP game), new players are perhaps less likely to come away with the impression that the game is fun. To counteract this, WotC is going to have to use their new 4e books to train a new generations of DMs... a daunting task, but one that for the record I hope they succeed at, despite my personal distaste towards converting to 4e.

Gamers need to start accepting that no game is a permanent thing. The typical game arises, has an arc of gameplay during which people purchase lots of the product, enjoy it, tell their friends about it... and eventually stop because they've got all they need to buy. The game then slowly dies out, and becomes unsupported. And once they're unsupported, that's their permanent death. They'll get played a little bit at conventions by the older players, but other than these lingering zombies that's the end of their lifespan. A few games are powerful enough in the market to surpass this- but they do so by releasing new editions.

This is the way things go. Its the same in the computer game industry. Its the same in the miniature gaming industry. Its the same in the card game industry. Any game which relies on a fandom which purchases its products on a regular basis follows this pattern.

Tis life. Don't like it, quit gaming.

That's an interesting suggestion. I am a gamer with plenty of disposable income, who is also opposed to planned obsolescence in my game systems. Since I am satisfied with 3.5/OGL and have scads of excellent material for it, I see no reason to "quit gaming" because I dislike this trend. Rather, I will simply vote with my wallet. This ridiculous "evolve or die" attitude which is sometimes espoused toward grognards is rather counterproductive for the community as a whole.

My grognardism is really born of two factors:

1. I am confident enough in my abilities as a DM and gearhead to tweak what few bits of 3.5 I don't like, and
2. the 3.5 system simulates the kind of D&D game my groups want to play, and that I want to run.

I hope 4e is a great success and that it encourages younger gamers to try our hobby. But it will never be MY game system, and I sense that now is the moment when the changes WotC has wrought shall drive me into permanent grognard-dom. I am grateful that I have a loyal core of players who agree with me because there are plenty of stories left to tell. There's no quit in this group of 3.5ers.

 

[Imaro]

See my post above yours. Sure most store get most of there money from other sources, but there is a certain critical mass needed to maintaining the RPG market place. At some point RPG's just aren't worth the trouble for stores period. If you lose most of your revenue from that section it'll get cut.

EDIT: Right now and for the foreseeable future D&D provides the critical mass that the rest of the market piggy-backs onto.

Also just to make clear I don't think D&D is going anywhere. I started this line of reason a few days ago in response to a poster who said that he wanted to see 4E fail. I just don't think he/she had thought this through very well. I think people unhappy with 4E are better served by it being successful. At least then their will be an industry left and someone will make the game they want.

My point is, it's just as likely something will fill the void a drop in D&D sales would create, as not. Especially since it's happened before.

 

[Varianor Abroad]

I have no way of quantifying this thought into real statistics, but many of the grognards you are so quick to dismiss are established GMs. Without good GMs (in D&D or any PnP game), new players are perhaps less likely to come away with the impression that the game is fun.

Not to mention capable grognards who DM your current system will encourage sales of books to players even if they aren't new recruits.

That said, WotC does need to recruit new, young players and DMs. There's no doubt that they have the largest resources, the most to lose and the most to gain.

 

[Minicol]

You mean *game* stores?

Maybe it's different in other places but around here, the game stores have far more non-D&D product than D&D product. Besides the other RPGs, things like card games, minis games, and even board games have pushed D&D *way* to the side.

Nah - if D&D goes away, they might notice a little, but no where near what you're suggesting.

Currently all my formerly D&D friendly game stores are filled to the top with mini games : WH40K, Confrontation, Helldorado ....

The RPG space is now less than 50%. In some cases less than 30.

 

[Minicol]

New players are going to evaluate D&D based more on the test of "is it fun?" and "are there people around to play with?" The answer to these questions seems likely to be yes, so 4e will sell just fine.

So Far, so good.

: Gamers need to start accepting that no game is a permanent thing.

Hold on, why do we need to accept anything ? Has gaming become a cult where you have to follow blindly the leader to your doom on the sacrificial altar ?

Tis life. Don't like it, quit gaming.

Well, I don't like it. But I don't intend to stop gaming. Do that if YOU want, but not me, it's not my way.

On the other hand, I do game because I get to meet people I like over a somewhat nice game, but ultimately, it's the fun I get and the people I meet that matters, not the game.

And I really have an issue with this rude, thug - like approach of "you are an old fogey, and if you shut up maybe we'll let you play with us genereously OUR game, because what you think, feel, or say does not matter".

Even if I liked 4e, I don't see how I could realistically have fun with someone with such an attitude as is displayed. So yes, it's certainly best if we go separate ways and we don't game together.

Because the problem, as I read the threads on this fine board, is that you want us to shut up and adopt the new game blindly so that we keep spending on YOUR new game which we do not want to use. Do you think it's Christmas now ?

If D&D has gone on for such a long time, it's mainly because us grognards DMs have invested time and MONEY to keep the line alive. Since we do not need us anymore, it is quite acceptable for us to stop spending as well. I highly doubt the "new generation" is willing to spend as much as we do, or spend the same amount of time DMing.

Fortunately, I have no shortage of players, so I don't have to stop gaming at all for many years.