Because any argument I make obviously means I'm playing my creatures dumb and not having enemies use any tactics, and lobbing players softballs, etc...
No, I didn't say that. I said that if a fireball is always the solution to a group of weaker enemies, the DM is not playing them tactically. I never implied, or intended to imply, that this reflects your game.
However, it's a rather obvious sort of thing. Weak enemies CAN be played tactically in such a way that a fireball ceases to be a good option (ie. the creatures come from multiple directions, or in waves, such that it's impossible to get a majority of them with a fireball). Given that tactics exist to counter fireball, if the DM doesn't use such tactics then they aren't playing the creatures tactically.
Literally all I'm saying here is that creatures that aren't being played tactically, aren't being played tactically. The self evident statement is self evident.
The main point I am making is that in the kinds of encounters where overkill can really and obviously start to matter there's a 1000% more effective option such that after that option is used the encounter is soo easy that overkill stops mattering again.
You want to prove that overkill doesn't matter, so you start by declaring that any circumstances where it does matter are corner case scenarios and aren't pertinent. That's very convenient, but anytime someone does that I tend to be suspicious of the reasoning involved.
I'm in three D&D groups right now. I have a solo side game going in one of the groups, so it's four parties total. Of those four parties, only one even has fireball IIRC, despite that three of those four parties have wizards. One group doesn't have a wizard at all. In the solo game, the wizard is a theurge (UA) so I'm having to make my spell selections very carefully so that I can eventually unlock her full potential (I'll hopefully find a scroll of fireball that she can transcribe into her book at some point). Another group has a wizard but he opted for lightning bolt because he prefers precision, over fireball's large area. The last group does have a wizard with fireball, but even in that case fireball wasn't always an option as he's had to miss several games while away on business trips.
That's four examples of groups that either don't have fireball at all, or don't always have access to it. An overall small sample size, but I think what it shows is that you can't just assume fireball to be a given. Just because tools like fireball exist, doesn't mean we can just assume that those cases are negligible. Not every party will have fireball, and not every tactical scenario will enable its use.
I think that if you try to prove that overkill doesn't matter by disregarding any cases where it does matter, all you'll prove is that overkill doesn't matter in cases where it doesn't matter. Which is self evident.