The market dying?

[Hussar]

*warning, warning, warning - purely personal annecdote ahead - take it for what it's worth - warning, warning, warning*

I've been gaming using OpenRPG for about three years now. I live in a small town in Japan and there aren't any gamers here whose language I can speak. (Still working on it ) So, all of my gaming has been done online. In those three years, I've run 3 campaigns for about 25 different gamers from all over the world. Mostly American and Canadian, but a smattering of gamers from elsewhere. Out of those 25 gamers, 7 have been teenagers in high school. Even in my current World's Largest Dungeon campaign, I have had 9 players, 3 of which are in high school. In fact, one of them had to quit because of high school leaving me with two. So, for the past three years, my gaming group has been pretty solidly 1/4 teenagers. These are all people I don't know and have never met.

I suppose its possible they were lying about their age, but, then again, my roleplay isn't really geared in THAT direction.

In my own experience, there has been no shortage of new gamers. When a quarter of the people who sit down to my game weren't even born when 2e DnD came out, I would say that the hobby seems to be drawing new blood. I know the other two DM's in my World's Largest Dungeon project seem to be drawing similar numbers with about 1/4 of prospective players being in high school.

Again, this is 100% annecdotal, so take from it what you will.

 

[Paradigm]

Personally, I would not say that the hobby is dying, but I would say that it is shrinking.
Not true. As I said above, the book stores deal with THEIR distributors. Their distributors will deal with just about anybody, anybody who is willing to take THEIR terms, including on the issue of returns. Also as I said above, there are only a few companies who can AFFORD to deal on those terms. Osseum tried to do it for smaller companies and look at how well that turned out....

I want to point out that Ingram didn't kill Osseum. As a person that has dealt with Ingram and other booktrade firms for some time, I know that Osseum's payment terms to its clients on booktrade sales should have made that about impossible. The appearance of such a careful system (later proven to be just that, only an appearance of such) was one of the things that led us to work with those guys to begin with.

I can't go into the data I have on Osseum, so I won't throw any numbers around that I cannot provide support for, but there are hundreds of small publishers that deal with Ingram, Waldens/Borders, and B&N. Many of which are smaller than my own company.

 

[Psion]

Edit: Those numbers are even less meaningful than I personally thought. It's only a few hours later, and now it reads:

Mage: The Awakening #1,120
Player's Handbook 3.5: #814

Ow.

Okay, I was giving WotC too little credit, I guess.

 

[eyebeams]

So, you are making controversial claims, and backing them up with nebulous evidence that you refuse to substantiate when asked for. Claiming you have secret evidence that you can't provide is absolutely no different than just making something up in terms of supporting an argument.

I'm doing no such thing. I've cited information that is there for the taking, should you be so inclined. I'm saying that my opinions are personally shaped by information that's above and beyond that.

Do the people who don't believe the hobby is dying have any hard evidence? Yes. As I've said, Gen Con attendance is at an all time high (25,000+ this year), when an industry/hobby is dying, you don't typically get more people than ever in the three decades of the history of that field coming from across the country and world to a convention. You don't get more people driving across the country with high gas prices when supposedly the industry is dwindling.

Gen Con isn't just about RPGs. In fact, I doubt the RPG industry by itself could even afford a convention of Gen Con's scale. There are segments of the larger games industry (aside from RPGs) that are certainly doing quite well, though everyone's been affected by a general economic malaise. But to meausre how RPGs are doing based on a convention that hosts the vastly more popular pursuits of M:tG, Warhammer, L5R, Yu-Gi-Oh, and collectible minis games is an indication of how self-absorbed the culture of the hobby has become.

 

[mearls]

Apparently the fact that Gareth, Rasyr and I all have a fair amount of experience working in the print RPG industry is, I know, irrelevant compared to what Charles Ryan might say off the cuff, right? Because Ryan sounds happier.

The fundamental error here is the assumption that what happens with the non-WotC segment of the industry has anything to do with WotC.

One of the things I've learned while working at WotC is that there's a massive gulf between what people outside the company see and say, and what's actually going on in here. None of the stories, or warnings, or impressions that outsiders gave me have matched my experiences in the least.

Here's one thing to chew on: if D&D was dying, what do you think WotC would do? Think on that for a moment. What strategies would you see? Do you really think that we'd sit back, tell you everything was going great, and just keep doing the same old thing? People, we are not stupid. Sure, we make mistakes. Just look at The Three Faces of Evil in Dungeon to see a bunch of mine. But we are not dumb. You can bet that if D&D was doing poorly, we would know about it and would take action to reverse that trend.

I would not be surprised at all if other people in RPG publishing saw poor sales and rough times. I see it myself. But they haven't hit D&D. As I mentioned before, it's a mistake to assume that the RPG business and the D&D business are the same thing. The scales are so radically different that any comparison is pointless.

It is completely possible for someone who works in RPGs and someone who works at WotC to have radically different views of the market. Gaming stores are taking a beating, yet the FLGS in Boston (Pandamonium Books and Games) is doing better than ever in RPGs. What's true for one segment or company is not necessarily true for everyone. Saying that because non-D&D and d20 sales are down means that D&D sales *must* be down is like saying that, since WW solds tons of copies of Vampire, Werewolf, and Mage in the early 1990s, TSR must have also had a massive surge in sales at the same time.

 

[Turjan]

I can't go into the data I have on Osseum, so I won't throw any numbers around that I cannot provide support for, but there are hundreds of small publishers that deal with Ingram, Waldens/Borders, and B&N. Many of which are smaller than my own company.

Right. Even Wraeththu made it to amazon and to B&N .

 

[mearls]

PDF sales are a new market. The PDF segment could still be adversly affected by the RPG downturn and set records anyhow.

Excellent point, one that bears emphasis.

 

[Paradigm]

Right. Even Wraeththu made it to amazon and to B&N .

I was thinking more along the line of some vanity press gardening book, but OK.

 

[Glyfair]

Do the people who don't believe the hobby is dying have any hard evidence? Yes. As I've said, Gen Con attendance is at an all time high (25,000+ this year), when an industry/hobby is dying, you don't typically get more people than ever in the three decades of the history of that field coming from across the country and world to a convention. You don't get more people driving across the country with high gas prices when supposedly the industry is dwindling.

Gen Con isn't just about RPGs. In fact, I doubt the RPG industry by itself could even afford a convention of Gen Con's scale. There are segments of the larger games industry (aside from RPGs) that are certainly doing quite well, though everyone's been affected by a general economic malaise. But to meausre how RPGs are doing based on a convention that hosts the vastly more popular pursuits of M:tG, Warhammer, L5R, Yu-Gi-Oh, and collectible minis games is an indication of how self-absorbed the culture of the hobby has become.

Possibly part of the problem is defining terms. wingsandsword refers to the "industry/hobby" dying. What is he referring to? Is he referring to RPGs or is he referring to the overall hobby game market?

If he's referring to the hobby game market, then GenCon would be a good indication. If he's referring to roleplaying, then you'd have to look at how many people are at GenCon for roleplaying and compare it to how many people were at GenCon for roleplaying in past years. I certainly don't have access to that information.

Another thought about increasing GenCon attendance. In my experience, the hobby gamers are getting older. Yes, we are getting new players. However, we aren't getting them at the rate we used to. The current ones are getting older and have more disposable income. They are somewhat fixed in their habits, so don't purchase a lot of new products (and are very selective). However, they do increasingly have the time and money to travel to a gaming convention.

For those at GenCon & Origins, what was the roleplaying demographic? Were they mostly younger gamers? Were the younger gamers part of families or there on their own? I know in the late 80's, a majority of roleplayers at my tables at Origins were early 20's and younger - does that still hold true?

As for "nebulous, unsubstantiated evidence," you have to look at the sources. Personally, I take mearls as one of the sources here I trust. I might not agree with his opinions at times, but I certainly will trust his word as far as evidence.

Everything I've heard (from various sources, including from a company that is one of the few gaming companies growing) says the gaming industry is down. Collectible Card games are down, miniature games are steady, roleplaying games are going down except for WotC and White Wolf which are bucking the trend by growing.

The reasons why aren't as clear. I know it is believed that online roleplaying is a cause. I've seen Ryan Dancey comment that he believes the Iraq situation is causing a decline (since the people over there are a key demographic). I've heard that the economy is a major issue (the average wage hasn't increased in several years, the growth in the economy is all at the top end and that demographic isn't typically into hobby games). However, that's opinion and speculation.

 

[Turjan]

I was thinking more along the line of some vanity press gardening book, but OK.

At least it has to do with flower... erm, appendices. Seems to fit .