The market dying?

[Crothian]

Lest I be accused of "trolling" (which, evidently, means "saying things that the hardcore gamer doesn't want to accept"), I will only sum up as follows:


eyebeams is right.



It's not pretty, but it's true.

I don't think anyone has a problem with the numbers he's throwing around, but I see no reasons to beleive his (and now yours) are any more accurate then anything else. But if you have proof, that is what the thread needs.

 

[Turjan]

I don't think anyone has a problem with the numbers he's throwing around, but I see no reasons to beleive his (and now yours) are any more accurate then anything else. But if you have proof, that is what the thread needs.

I have a problem with those numbers. I have a problem with drawing statistcal results from obviously lopsided data.

Maybe, I'm not clear enough in what I'm saying. I don't deny the possibility that the market is shrinking. I don't deny that this is even likely. However, I have massive problems if someone comes with a set of meaningless numbers, draws meaningless conclusions from these numbers and declares all people who point to this logical flaw as delusional. That's what I find very irritating.

 

[Crothian]

I have a problem with those numbers. I have a problem with drawing statistcal results from obviously lopsided data.

Maybe, I'm not clear enough in what I'm saying. I don't deny the possibility that the market is shrinking. I don't deny that this is even likely. However, I have massive problems if someone comes with a set of meaningless numbers, draws meaningless conclusions from these numbers and declares all people who point to this logical flaw as delusional. That's what I find very irritating.

I agree with you. What I meant by those numbers is that if someone posted actual proof and it turned out the 45% was right, that that would be fine. It was the final numbers assuming they were proiven to be accurate that I was referring to. But that's not going to happen since no one tracks the information.

 

[Turjan]

What I meant by those numbers is that if someone posted actual proof and it turned out the 45% was right, that that would be fine.

That's right. Unfortunately, up to now, all direct questions were dodged.

 

[eyebeams]

I don't think anyone has a problem with the numbers he's throwing around, but I see no reasons to beleive his (and now yours) are any more accurate then anything else. But if you have proof, that is what the thread needs.

Apparently the fact that Gareth, Rasyr and I all have a fair amount of experience working in the print RPG industry is, I know, irrelevant compared to what Charles Ryan might say off the cuff, right? Because Ryan sounds happier.

(And FWIW, I don't think Charles Ryan is a liar. I think he's doing his job, which is to represent he interests of the D&D brand, and that he'll use the tools at his disposal to create a strong image for the brand.)

One thing I will tell you is that all of us have sources above and beyond what we're mentioning here, but to be honest, that information comes from professional circles that I doubt any of us are inclined to damage by directly relaying what was shared in confidence.

In any event, as it stands, this discussion is based on the fallacy that claiming the industry is declining is the extraordinary claim, rather than it is improving. None of you have any proof that things are getting better, are you?

But weighing things on both sides seems to be beyond the extent to which people are willing to take the topic.

 

[Turjan]

One thing I will tell you is that all of us have sources above and beyond what we're mentioning here, but to be honest, that information comes from professional circles that I doubt any of us are inclined to damage by directly relaying what was shared in confidence.

Okay, you've decided to stay nebulous, so let's leave it at that .

In any event, as it stands, this discussion is based on the fallacy that claiming the industry is declining is the extraordinary claim, rather than it is improving. None of you have any proof that things are getting better, are you?

None of us claimed as much, so there's no proof necessary .

But weighing things on both sides seems to be beyond the extent to which people are willing to take the topic.

I'm weighing the arguments all the time. That's why I came to the conclusion that your specific claims are rubbish. Your qualitative one may be fine .

 

[wingsandsword]

One thing I will tell you is that all of us have sources above and beyond what we're mentioning here, but to be honest, that information comes from professional circles that I doubt any of us are inclined to damage by directly relaying what was shared in confidence.

So, you are making controversial claims, and backing them up with nebulous evidence that you refuse to substantiate when asked for. Claiming you have secret evidence that you can't provide is absolutely no different than just making something up in terms of supporting an argument.

Do the people who don't believe the hobby is dying have any hard evidence? Yes. As I've said, Gen Con attendance is at an all time high (25,000+ this year), when an industry/hobby is dying, you don't typically get more people than ever in the three decades of the history of that field coming from across the country and world to a convention. You don't get more people driving across the country with high gas prices when supposedly the industry is dwindling.

 

[William Ronald]

While I cannot determine if the hobby is shrinking or maintaining its current level of players, I think that one question that should be addressed is "How does the industry and current players attract new people to role playing games?"

I think there are opportunities to reach out to potential new players, but I am uncertain how to do it. However, I think what motivates much of the debate in this thread is a love for our hobby. Perhaps it might be a good idea to also discuss how to bring more people to the gaming table -- which would be a win-win proposition.

 

[Paradigm]

Ask anybody who works in the business....print RPG sales are plummeting.

However, conversely, PDF sales have been breaking records, month to month, for the past 3 years.

PDF sales are a new market. The PDF segment could still be adversly affected by the RPG downturn and set records anyhow.

 

[Turjan]

On a completely different note, and being aware of the fact that it's only a small sample size and a snapshot of this very moment, a look at the amazon sales ranks shows quite nicely which D&D book series sell and which don't. I guess we won't see more environmental books, if those numbers have any worth at all .