The market dying?

[Rasyr]

BelenUmeria - I think that what you are discussing really deserves its own thread. Would you be so kind as to create such a thread so that we do not derail this discussion (as I would really like to discuss some of what you said, but do not want to derail this discussion too much) thanks.

 

[Akrasia]

...
The real problem with the rules lies in the plethora of temporary or conditional modifications and the inconsistency within the advanced combat options found in the game.

Yeah, this is another reason why I won't DM 3e anymore (I didn't mean to suggest that the reason I cited earlier was the only reason). And for the record, I don't have a problem with saying 'no' to players.

My general point was that for RPGs to be successful, more needs to be done to assist DMs/GMs. Not just premade adventures (though those certainly help), but tools that can assist the DM/GM in cutting down on prep time, make running sessions easier, etc.

Getting more people willing to GM/DM games is key to ensuring a healthy RPG community.

 

[Belen]

I hate to say this, but Eyebeams is correct. The RPG hobby is shrinking at an incredible rate. This can be found in the large percentage of Hobby Stores that are leaving the business and the small print runs associated with most of the top tier publishers.

Despite what many of you may want to think, the decline of the hobby store is a serious threat to hobby. Those stores that have managed to survive are doing so on TCGs and Miniatures.

As a WIzards Delegate, I spend a lot of time in hobby stores. Personally, my main focus as a delegate is D&D, although I support a number of Wizards product lines. Those stores that specialize in RPGs are being ruined. They simplely cannot survive in the market, nor do they have the time to become as knowledgeable about the RPGs as the average ENWorlder.

D&D demos do not attract the kids. They tend to attract the older gamer who has been away from the hobby or does not have the time to play in a regular group.

Conversely, The D&D Minis demos consistantly attract kids. I have very few older gamers who attend these demos. Because I care about D&D, I use the minis the try and recruit new players into the game, but that does not always work. Especially because an entry pack for DDM costs $20 while the entry for D&D costs $30 and you need a DM plus a few buddies willing to play.

Those of you who want to believe that RPGs are doing fine are kidding yourselves. There is a serious decline in the number of people entering the hobby. The result of the decline can be seen the the new "luxury" market and the low cost PDF market. Neither of these markets support entry into the hobby.

The only way that we can help grow the hobby would be large scale effort to local groups and communities to support the hobby and recruit new players. Thus, if existing gamers made the time to run even one game a month at a hobby store, library etc, then we may be able to slow or reverse the decline.

Now, Mearles is also correct with regards to D&D. It is sheltered from the current trends, but I believe that has a lot to do with the DDM crossover market rather than people choosing to pick up the game for itself.

Feel free to take my comments with a grain of salt. I am not going to claim that I know as much as Mearls of Gareth or to have the hard numbers that they have seen, but I do encourage you all to take the time and actively seek out new players or do a little personal promotion for the game. I think that could make a real difference.

 

[Belen]

BelenUmeria - I think that what you are discussing really deserves its own thread. Would you be so kind as to create such a thread so that we do not derail this discussion (as I would really like to discuss some of what you said, but do not want to derail this discussion too much) thanks.

Done. Please find the thread here: http://www.enworld.org/showthread.php?t=146835

 

[Turjan]

I hate to say this, but Eyebeams is correct. The RPG hobby is shrinking at an incredible rate. This can be found in the large percentage of Hobby Stores that are leaving the business and the small print runs associated with most of the top tier publishers.

I think that everybody in this thread, including myself, agreed on the point that hobby stores are vanishing or cease selling RPGs because those are not as profitable as other products. I see the point that the hobby store may be an entry point for new RPG gamers (just as an anecdotal point: that's neither true for me nor for any of my players), and the discussion how to replace this function is definitely one of the most important ones the RPG community should have.

 

[eyebeams]

That's a non sequitur. The comparison of hourly calculated sales ranks of a freshly released title with a different one with simlar rank that has been out for several years doesn't tell you much, except that the one that has been out for years sells remarkably better. If you generally look at the more relevant long term titles, then you will see the nWoD core book at roughly 8 times lower sales rank than the Player's Handbook for amazon, somewhere in the range of the D&D Monster Manuals, but decidedly behind titles like the Complete series.

That would be true if you wanted to believe that I thought a single hour was important, which I don't. Having looked at these for a while, these surges usually last a couple of weeks -- in some cases, a couple of months.

The specific statement that you agreed on with Mike, Tim and Gareth was that the non-D&D RPG market seems to shrink.

Then Mike hardly "countered," what I was saying.

 

[eyebeams]

Yeah, well, I don't think you'll find any recent numbers to back that one up. Anecdotally, I have seen palladium on the decline for a long time; I beleive that the comic shop numbers that show a decline of that line are on target.

That would be odd, given that Palladium did quite well on C&GR rankings in 2004. Looking back, though, I think my estimates are off by about a year and I'd put the RPG segments of Palladium and SJG neck and neck.

Of course, nobody wants to hear Palladium is successful, because they hate their games.

 

[Psion]

That would be odd, given that Palladium did quite well on C&GR rankings in 2004.

Considering they've declined from previous years where claims of being #3 were actually credible, I think your definition of "quite well" differs from mine.

 

[Storm Raven]

Of course, nobody wants to hear Palladium is successful, because they hate their games.

How is Palladium successful if everyone hates their games?

 

[wingsandsword]

That would be odd, given that Palladium did quite well on C&GR rankings in 2004. Looking back, though, I think my estimates are off by about a year and I'd put the RPG segments of Palladium and SJG neck and neck.

Of course, nobody wants to hear Palladium is successful, because they hate their games.

They're supposed to be selling at comic shops? From where I'm sitting, I can look at 3 stores in my town, and see Palladium falling faster than almost any other company.

Store #1: The Rusty Scabbard. A "classic" FLGS, fully stocked and covering a wide variety of gaming. Several years ago, Palladium warranted an entire shelf of new items prominently displayed and several shelves of older books. Now? A copy of Ultimate Rifts on display and a half-shelf of older books, as it's former display space has been given over things like Blue Rose.

Store #2: Collectables Ect. A comic book store first and foremost, that has a corner of the store that sells RPG's. A few years ago they had big displays of Palladium books and shelves containing almost every old Rifts book. Now? A copy of Ultimate Rifts on display, and the old Rifts shelf has been moved to the bottom shelf in the corner, gathering dust (literally, I checked, nothing there looks like it's been even touched in months).

Store #3: A+ Comics. A dedicated comic store that has a small gaming sideline. There is a bookcase in a neglected corner with RPG materials. The only stuff there that is current is WoD and WotC materials, and the only Palladium materials are ones the owner bought when he first opened the store by buying a big liquidation lot of RPG materials 5 years ago.

At meetings of my gaming club, we often get new members, and when asking them about their gaming experiences, sometimes they will mention they were Palladium players. Always in the past tense. Usually it goes like "Well, I used to play Rifts, then Palladium threatened to sue me for a message board post" or "I used to play Rifts, then I turned 16 and discovered D&D". Of dozens and dozens of gamers to come through, we haven't gotten an actual Palladium fan since 1999, and he gave up when Palladium threatened to sue him over some online posts talking about Rifts conversions.

When I walk into a "big box" bookstore or chain bookstore in a mall, I never see Palladium products. There is plenty of WotC materials, a good amount of WW/S&S materials, and a few items from Malhavoc, Mongoose and AEG each. Their Amazon sales ranks are in the toilet. Are they such hot sellers in comic book stores (which aren't apparently selling other RPG's in quantity, just Rifts) that it outweighs online sales, mainstream bookstore sales, and FLGS sales of every other company in the industry other than WW & WotC?

I could believe that SJG, AEG, Malhavoc or Mongoose is #3 in the industry, because they actually seem to be on the move. All of those except SJG I see regularly in mainstream channels (not a lot, but their books are at least present at the local B&N and Waldenbooks). I know Palladium was a major company a decade ago, maybe even five years ago, but every indication I've seen except the CG&R numbers says they've been in sharp decline.

The CG&R numbers are highly suspect. I'm using anecdotal evidence, yes, but CG&R isn't exactly much better. Ken Hite's own column says even he has doubts about the validity of the data:

(http://www.gamingreport.com/modules.php?op=modload&name=Sections&file=index&req=printpage&artid=133)

Because although they're definitely numbers, the C&GR results are barely data, derived as they are from self-selected response card surveys of those game retailers savvy enough to subscribe to Comics & Games Retailer. (It's free if you are a retailer; check out their website for details.) Therefore, by the cold equations of statistical reality, the C&GR numbers should rightly be simply discarded as unrepresentative of anything, even of the "core hobby games market," defined as stores that only sell stuff that only us geeks care about. The larger adventure game mass market, in Wal-Marts and Borders and suchlike, is opaque to them, and as a result, mostly, to us.

Bold added for emphasis.