The market dying?

[Pramas]

The industry has always gone through boom and bust cycles. And make no mistake, this is an industry-wide problem, not specific to RPGs (though they are the segment that seems hit the hardest). Right now we are going through a rough patch and that goes for everyone--WotC included. All indicators point to this. That doesn't mean the game industry is dying but things sure could be more healthy.

 

[Turjan]

Is there any evidence that the gamers in the online community are not generally representative by taste?

Actually, I wouldn't even model my d20 or D&D publishing strategy after what the EN World community likes if I had any responsibility in this regard .

 

[Akrasia]

... D&D is doing fine. I can't even begin to get into details here, since I hear stuff around the office that is confidential. .... But what I can say is that D&D is trucking along fine....

... Right now we are going through a rough patch and that goes for everyone--WotC included. All indicators point to this. ...

Are these two statements compatible?

Possibly, given the vagueness of the claim that 'D&D is doing fine' ('fine' relative to what?), and/or the possibility that D&D's relative health is independent of WotC's overall health.

 

[Rasyr]

Are these two statements compatible?

Possibly, given the vagueness of the claim that 'D&D is doing fine' ('fine' relative to what?), and/or the possibility that D&D's relative health is independent of WotC's overall health.

Yes, it is possible that the two are compatible. Remember what I said earlier about spin-doctoring. What we do not know is what all Mearls includes under "D&D", nor do we know what he considers as "trucking along fine". His statement may include such things as licensing deals (for computer games, or movies, or other things,etc.), his definition of "D&D" may or may not include minis, or even the whole of WotC for that matter, but we have no way of knowing.

One of the nifty things about larger corporations that I learned while working for Hewlett-Packard (was a contract employee at the time) was that they do not like their employees saying bad things about them and/or their business. Something to keep in mind.

Now, if there were ever an opinion that I would trust above all others, Chris Pramas' would be it. He has worked for WotC, so he understands their corporate culture, he has created his own successful business (one built on solid quality), and his company has survived some nasty disasters (such as the Osseum fiasco). Not only is a designer, but a pretty smart business man as well.

Then again, Mearls is not a businessman, and with WotC being a large corporation (or at least part of one), I am pretty sure that he would quite likely not have access to any of their sales numbers, so anything he says in that regards could possibly be considered office gossip.

In the end, it is up to each individual as to how much weight they give the words of another.

 

[Crothian]

One of the nifty things about larger corporations that I learned while working for Hewlett-Packard (was a contract employee at the time) was that they do not like their employees saying bad things about them and/or their business. Something to keep in mind.

That is very true about a lot of companies. They never like anyone especially people that work for them, to say the company is doing anything but good; no matter how true the statement might be.

 

[Henry]

One of the nifty things about larger corporations that I learned while working for Hewlett-Packard (was a contract employee at the time) was that they do not like their employees saying bad things about them and/or their business. Something to keep in mind.

While true, I also get drawn back to Mike's statement:

It is completely possible for someone who works in RPGs and someone who works at WotC to have radically different views of the market.

One thing I'm certain of is that the majority of players of other games will eventually get drawn back to D&D at some point, just like they'll diverge yet again after that. Where we are in that cycle, though, I couldn't tell you.

 

[DaveMage]

That is very true about a lot of companies. They never like anyone especially people that work for them, to say the company is doing anything but good; no matter how true the statement might be.

I still remember one of Allen Varney's last columns in Dragon magazine that basically said TSR was doing well...

...only to have TSR go belly up within 2-3 months.

So, yeah, employees sometimes either have no idea what's going on, or paint a picture that's better than reality.

Of course, there is always the possibility that employees are 100% correct, but without seeing the financial statements, all we can do is judge if their word is worth taking.

 

[GVDammerung]

When TSR was nearly going banckrupt and Dragon stopped being published for about 6 months, the then EiC came onto AOL and loudly and longly said there were "printer problems" and that this was the extent of the issue. As the months wore on and the obvious became painfully so, the song remained the same - "printer problems."

I take what Charles Ryan or Mike Mearls or any Wotc staffer says about the state of their corporate affairs with a huge grain of salt. I'm not saying they are lying (just as doubtless a near banckrupt TSR did have problems with its printer) but their "truth" is potentially so shaded that it might be "true" only in that it is not a bald faced lie.

And, of course, D&D is now owned by Hasbro, not TSR, so the analogy is not exact. The principle, however, holds. Corporations routinely have "public positions" that are supportable by some measure but which are also designed to serve the corporation's PR interests before "the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth."

As far as I can tell, the hobby is shrinking and looks to be headed the way (but still a good ways off) of wargames and model railroading - a smallish, but dedicated fanbase. Wotc and D&D may well be the "last to go." That any number of people do not want to entertain the thought at all or entertaining it briefly then reject it almost out of hand reflects, I think in some measure, their dedication that will see them remain with the hobby as it continues to shrink. It is the same "saying it often enough might make it so" thinking that sees 4E threads derided with a blase condescention, faux superiority and opinion dressed up as irrefutable "logic." Either way, its like arguing with religious fanatics - fundamentalist D&D pollyannas. "The hobby is doing just GREAT and 4e is WRONG before 2020." "Ray has gone bye-bye; Egon, what have you got left?"

 

[GMSkarka]

Even with the market undeniably shrinking, that doesn't mean that it will die.

After all, we're currently 94 years after H.G. Welles published Floor Games and invented the historical miniatures wargame, and despite the popularity waning and the market for it shrinking, there are still hardcore players of historicals today.

 

[Thorin Stoutfoot]

Even with the market undeniably shrinking, that doesn't mean that it will die.

Indeed. Every year the first portion of "Year's Best Science Fiction" is spent debunking the "SF is dying" theory that propagates itself despite the fact that more SF books are published every year than the previous.